India’s strategic engagement with Armenia amidst the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict presents a crucial opportunity for bolstering its influence in the South Caucasus region. By providing significant military assistance to Armenia, India aims to not only enhance its defence industry’s market but also counterbalance the influence of regional powers like Turkey and Pakistan. This proactive involvement underscores India’s commitment to promoting stability and security in the region while positioning itself as a key player in shaping geopolitical dynamics beyond its immediate neighborhood.
Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has deep-rooted historical origins, with tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the region tracing back to the early 20th century. Nagorno-Karabakh, predominantly Armenian but located within the borders of Azerbaijan, has been a focal point of contention. The conflict escalated in the late 1980s when Nagorno-Karabakh sought to join Armenia, leading to violent clashes and eventually a full-scale war.
Soviet Union’s Role and Collapse
The Soviet Union’s policies and borders significantly influenced the conflict dynamics. The region was established within Azerbaijani borders by the Soviets in 1923, despite its Armenian majority population. With the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the conflict intensified as both Armenia and Azerbaijan asserted their claims over Nagorno-Karabakh, leading to a devastating war that resulted in significant casualties and displacement.
Recent Escalations
In recent years, the conflict experienced renewed escalations, culminating in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war. Azerbaijan, bolstered by its oil revenues and modernization efforts in its military, particularly in drone technology and loitering munitions, achieved significant military successes against Armenian forces. This conflict highlighted Azerbaijan’s adoption of modern warfare tactics and equipment, which outmatched Armenia’s older, Russian-made military arsenal.
The Arms Deals
In response to Azerbaijan’s advancements and Armenia’s military needs, India emerged as a significant arms supplier to Armenia. Over the past four years, Armenia has procured a substantial amount of weaponry from India, including Swathi Weapons Locating Radars, Pinaka multiple-barrel rocket launchers, anti-tank missiles, artillery guns, anti-drone systems, and surface-to-air missile systems. These arms sales have bridged critical gaps in Armenia’s military inventory.
India’s Strategic Interests in the Region
India’s motivations for arms sales to Armenia are multifaceted. Firstly, India seeks to expand its defence industry’s market and enhance its defence ties with Armenia, a strategically located country in the South Caucasus region. Additionally, by supporting Armenia, India aims to counterbalance the influence of regional powers like Turkey and Pakistan, which have supported Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Furthermore, India’s engagement with Armenia aligns with its broader foreign policy objectives of promoting stability and security in the region.
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Impact on Regional Dynamics
India’s arms sales to Armenia have significant implications for regional dynamics. They signal India’s willingness to assert its influence in regions beyond its immediate neighborhood and challenge the dominance of other regional players. Moreover, these arms sales could potentially exacerbate tensions between India and Azerbaijan, as evidenced by Azerbaijan’s objections and warnings against India’s support for Armenia. However, they also present opportunities for India to strengthen its diplomatic ties and strategic partnerships with countries like Armenia and Greece, which share similar concerns regarding Turkish expansionism.
Russia’s Part
Russia has historically played a significant role in the South Caucasus region and has maintained close ties with both Armenia and Azerbaijan. However, its ability to assert influence in the region has faced limitations, particularly in the context of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Despite being a key ally of Armenia and providing military support, Russia’s perceived neutrality during the 2020 conflict and its inability to prevent Azerbaijan’s military advancements have raised questions about its effectiveness as a security guarantor for Armenia. Moreover, Russia’s preoccupation with other geopolitical crises, such as the conflict in Ukraine, has diverted its attention and resources away from the South Caucasus, creating opportunities for other players like India to fill the void.
Azerbaijan’s Response
Azerbaijan has reacted strongly to India’s arms sales to Armenia, viewing it as a challenge to its security interests. President Ilham Aliyev and Azerbaijani military officials have issued warnings to India, urging it to cease its support for Armenia to avoid further escalation. Azerbaijan’s close alliance with Turkey and Pakistan, both of which have provided military and diplomatic support during the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, strengthens its position in the region. The alignment of these countries poses challenges for India’s engagement in the South Caucasus and underscores the importance of strategic diplomacy and coalition-building to mitigate tensions and maintain regional stability.
India’s Engagement with Armenia
India’s growing engagement with Armenia has broader implications for regional balance and stability. By providing military assistance to Armenia, India aims to bolster its strategic presence in the South Caucasus and counterbalance the influence of Turkey, Pakistan, and other regional actors supporting Azerbaijan. However, India must navigate carefully to avoid exacerbating existing tensions and conflicts in the region. India’s support for Armenia could strain its relations with Azerbaijan and potentially affect its ties with other countries in the region. Therefore, India must balance its strategic interests with the imperative of maintaining diplomatic relations and stability in the South Caucasus.
Challenges and Opportunities for India
One of the primary challenges for India is to navigate the complex regional dynamics of the South Caucasus while advancing its strategic interests. India must carefully balance its support for Armenia with its broader diplomatic engagements in the region, including maintaining constructive relations with Azerbaijan and other key stakeholders. Achieving this balance requires nuanced diplomacy and strategic decision-making to mitigate potential conflicts and promote stability.
Leveraging Partnerships with Greece and Others
India can leverage its partnerships with countries like Greece to strengthen its position in the South Caucasus and counterbalance the influence of regional rivals. Greece’s historical tensions with Turkey and its shared interests in promoting stability in the region make it a valuable ally for India. By deepening cooperation with Greece and other like-minded countries, India can enhance its diplomatic leverage and bolster its strategic presence in the South Caucasus.
Concerns and Counterarguments
India must address concerns and counterarguments raised by regional actors, particularly Azerbaijan, regarding its support for Armenia. India should engage in transparent and constructive dialogue to clarify its intentions and emphasize its commitment to promoting peace and stability in the region. Additionally, India can explore diplomatic channels to mitigate tensions and build trust with all stakeholders, emphasizing its role as a responsible global actor committed to upholding international norms and principles.
India’s strategic engagement with Armenia amidst the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict presents a crucial opportunity for bolstering its influence in the South Caucasus region. By providing significant military assistance to Armenia, India aims to not only enhance its defence industry’s market but also counterbalance the influence of regional powers like Turkey and Pakistan. This proactive involvement underscores India’s commitment to promoting stability and security in the region while positioning itself as a key player in shaping geopolitical dynamics beyond its immediate neighborhood.
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