India-US relations: Indians have often confused their understanding of American politics. In the beginning of the century, Bush’s visit to India worked as an icebreaker. Then Indians got mesmerised by the social media optics of Barack Hussein Obama. Obama came across as an excellent human with empathy for a relatively weaker part of the world.
Because Indians during the UPA era had an inferiority complex, they expected the Democrat leader to be kinder to us. Obama also portrayed himself as a fan of Mohandas Karamchand Gandhi and Sachin Tendulkar, increasing his soft power hedge fund. Then came Trump, and Indians developed a penchant for friendship between Prime Minister Modi and President Trump.
Subconsciously, love for this friendship turned into love for Americans. In 2020, Trump lost and Sleepy Joe came to power. His deputy, Kamala Harris, is of Indian descent. Most of us Indians rejoiced and expected India-US relations to reach new heights. Is it true or not? Or is it that Republicans are far better when it comes to relations with India?
India-US relations: The next election cycle is on
The countdown for the US elections has begun. New candidates are being announced. While Democrats debate who is the most vulnerable candidate to keep a puppet in the White House, Republicans have cranked up their candidature race. Earlier, the party was divided on Trump and Ron De Santis, a refined version of Trump for many and the current Florida governor. While Trump has made it possible to fight elections on domestic issues in America, this time around, foreign policy is again going to play a big role in winning people’s mandate.
Also read: Biden accepts India’s stand on Russia – Ukraine war and PM Modi didn’t even try
The China conundrum and India
More specifically, candidates will have to assure the 330 million-strong American population that their policies in Eastern Europe and Asia won’t backfire. The main reason behind it is the failure of the American deep state to establish China in its sphere of influence. By helping it get into the WTO, the US thought that it would democratise China. Instead, the American establishment got more authoritarian, and China is tilted towards Russia, the existential enemy of the American deep state.
Now that Americans have learned that China is nothing but a Frankenstein monster, they need a counterweight to China in Asia. This is where India’s role in American elections becomes crucial. Ultimately, the China conundrum boils down to which party is going to win more hearts in New Delhi. Conversely, for New Delhi, it has to check which party is more coherent with respect to India-US relations with India’s radical neighbours.
Talking about the Democrats, which is Biden’s party, there has been more confusion in India’s policy than any gender dysphoria-affected person in its Cabinet. They just don’t know whether to cajole India or take on its rising power. Let’s understand their duality.
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Biden’s gesture to India
Under Biden, the US has been trying to make India believe that it is its best friend with their strong India-US relations. Americans became ready to provide a CAATSA waiver to India, something that Turkey, their NATO ally, could not get. Moreover, it is also ready to participate in India’s Aatmanirbhar campaign by assisting India in the development of jet engine technology.
To top it all off, the Biden administration, considered pro-China by its Conservative media, has time and again indicated that it will support India in case China goes haywire. The gesture itself indicates how important India has become for the US. Surprisingly, Americans followed through on their promises. Both countries conducted military exercises just under China’s peripheral vision at the Line of Actual Control (LAC). They did not renege even after the recent border clash in Arunachal Pradesh. Recently, a bipartisan resolution in the United States was introduced formally supporting India on Arunachal Pradesh.
The importance of India was evident in the way sleepy Biden dashed to make himself known to PM Modi. It was in the midst of both countries being in a conflict zone over the Ukraine-Russia crisis. By that time, the United States was not happy with India’s neutrality. Virtually “n” numbers of American officials visited India to understand its concerns. One of them is Janet Yellen, Treasury Secretary of the Biden administration. They just couldn’t understand how a country that they treated on par with Pakistan could take its own stand on it.
To dissuade India from its stand, the Americans tried all sorts of tactics. On regular intervals, they released reports regarding human rights abuse and religious fanaticism against India. EAM Jaishankar took charge on India’s front and did not let these shake India’s firm grip. Slowly, Democrats have been portraying themselves as understanding India’s position on Russia. Anthony Blinken even went as far as to acknowledge that India has a historic dependence on Russia and can’t put it away in whisker. The US is desperate to replace Russia in India’s defence sector with itself or any country of its choice.
Also read: The New York Times has found ‘Hunter-Biden’ in India
The other side of the coin
Happy? Your faith in Democrats must have been restored by these facts. Hehe Hehe…. Cute. It’s not that simple. On the other side of the aisle is Pakistan, a country whose existential goal is to bleed India with thousand cuts. If a country or a party is India’s friend, then it does not need to stand beside Pakistan. A condemnation of Pakistan should be ready at a moment’s notice. That is not the case with the Biden administration. In fact, it is the opposite of that.
The Biden administration has emerged as a strong backer of Pakistan. Under him, the United States once surpassed China as the leading source of FDI in Pakistan. Despite rising inflation, fuel shortages, and crumbling infrastructure, Biden has urged US companies to invest in Pakistan. Not only that, but the US is facilitating the return of IMF funds to Pakistan.
As if financial assistance wasn’t enough, the United States has made it easier for Pakistan to produce more terrorists. Pakistan is off the FATF’s grey list, thanks to the Biden administration. This has made it easier for Pakistan to obtain more funds, thereby fostering terrorism. A $ 450 million fleet sustainment programme for F-16 fighter jets has been authorised to arm these terrorists. The likelihood of Pakistan obtaining additional billions to fight TTP and use them against India is high. Moreover, for a brief period, Americans even supported Pakistan’s historically false claim on Jammu and Kashmir.
That is the duality of the Biden administration and Democrats in general. They are considered closer to the deep state, and the deep state of permanent Washington thrives in chaos. Moreover, Islamists are among the voter bases of Democrats, which literally translates into more support for causes like Pakistan and Palestine than India and Israel. It was only when Republicans got hold of the US House of Representatives that it became possible to throw out radical Islamists like Ilhan Omar from the Foreign Affairs Committee.
Also read: PM Modi’s veiled attack on Joe Biden and his green friends after assuming G20 leadership
How are Republicans going to fare in India?
And here is a lesson for India. Unlike Democrats, one can zero in on any specific issue with Republicans. Unlike the scattered voter bases of Democrats, they are believed to have a stable vote bank to cater to, namely white Americans. For these people, living peacefully in the land of their ancestors is paramount. That is why there is a general distaste for Islamic radicalism, especially that based in countries like Afghanistan and Pakistan.
But, traditionally, a lot of Republicans did not follow through on this threat. It took someone like Donald Trump to change the course of the Grand Old Party. Trump is a first-hand witness to the waste of American efforts in Afghanistan and Pakistan. As soon as he took charge of the White House, American policy was in for a revision.
The Trump factor in Republican policy towards Pakistan and China
He reduced aid destined for Pakistan. By doing it in tranches, Trump gave slow poison to Pakistan. The message was loud, clear, and resounding. Until Pakistan stops sheltering the Taliban and other terrorist groups, a single cent of US Treasury money won’t go to Pakistan. Trump is the one who has made it possible for the US to withdraw from Afghanistan. Neocons in his own party must have threatened him, but Trump is Trump, and he is always in a position to not care.
If any Republican wants to beat him in the 2024 elections, he or she has to abide by this policy on Pakistan and reverse the potentially fatal mistakes of Biden’s policy on the terrorist nation. No matter who wins for the Republicans, whether it’s Trump, DeSantis, or Indian-origin candidates like Nikki Haley and Vivek Ramaswamy, It is going to disadvantage Pakistan.
Also read: Pakistan will get its hands on American F-16s, courtesy Joe Biden
Nikki Haley has, in fact, already announced her intentions regarding the same. She has said that Pakistan won’t get funding from the US if she comes to power. Chiding the Biden administration, Nikki said, “The Biden administration resumed military aid to Pakistan, though it’s home to at least a dozen terrorist organisations and its government is deeply in hock to China.”
She attacked Biden for China because Republicans are set to lose more ground in the region, not just in Pakistan. Credit for that goes to the Trump legacy. He is the one who identified China as a rising threat to world peace. He is the one who identified China’s intellectual theft and started a trade war. It is his administration’s idea to align with India in order to stop the rise of the paper dragon. The Biden administration is just trying to carry it forward with low intensity and utter confusion.
India-US relations: Democrats are delusional
The confusion leads to chaos, and it is not a trivial reality for Democrats. It is, in fact, a central reality for them. These people can’t zero in on anything, let alone foreign policy and India-US relations. Interacting with them is always bound to cause confusion-driven anxiety in the other party. With Republicans, there is less of that risk.
Even in the worst-case scenario, we assume that Republicans will become anti-India, pro-Pak, and pro-China, and it will be clear to us in unequivocal terms. That is never going to be the case with Democrats. They keep everyone on tenterhooks, and it will be intellectually arrogant to assume that India is a rare exception.
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