The bilateral relation between India and China is down to the lowest point in history. The two great ancient civilizations are face to face with each other since the Chinese and Indian troops engaged in aggressive face-offs on 5th May, 2020. The skirmishes in the Galwan region along the Sino-Indian border was the deadliest clash in the last 45 years and was resolved after 11 rounds of military talks.
Despite the diplomatic engagement, the relation between the two countries has soured beyond repair. In light of the tension between the two great nations, the multilateral partnerships like BRICS are getting jeopardized and with it the hopes of India joining the Eastern Bloc with Russia and China.
Russian Invasion has clogged Putin for want of Options
The congregation of the leaders of the world in the Indonesian soil for the G20 summit unequivocally supported Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s call for an immediate de-escalation of the Ukraine conflict. Most countries stressed on the vision that “today’s era must not be of war”. The development is crucial for a variety of reasons, as it highlights as to what would be the future course of action.
The Russian invasion cannot go on till eternity. At some point the war would come to an end. That is to say that it would be the terms of peace negotiations that will show way towards the seizure of the conflict. The conflict and its aftermaths are posed to determine the course of future world order.
Russia is finding itself turning into no man’s land, as the country cannot call back its military from the annexed territories of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. Nor can it surrender in front of the western bloc. Therefore, the options are very limited for Russia in terms of future course of action.
In addition, the history of peace treaty has not been in favor of the aggressor. Be it the Treaty of Versailles that formally ended World War I or the 1947 peace accord of Paris both suggests that long term peace cannot be established through this path.
Putin has no exit option
The world leaders are quite unequivocally and continuously endorsing the vision of “not the time of war”. But does this takes the war towards an end is a question to be looked into. The so called super powers have contributed very little to see through the war. They have rather failed to come up with any alternatives as to how the war can be ended.
Owing to lack of options with respect to the exit policy and the gross human rights repatriations that the western counterparts would ask from Russia, Putin is forced to linger on the war despite been subjected to drawbacks with each passing day.
The only ray of optimism for Putin at this point is to have a functional and cooperative BRICS community. However, this is not an easy nut to crack, given the recent tensions between India and China. However, the long term war has borrowed time for Russia to establish an alternative and rather parallel trading mechanism to carry on its world trade. The closest alternative being BRICS, Russia is left with no other option than to ensure that the BRICS develops as a parallel mechanism of international economics and trade.
A strong and functional BRICS will help Putin tackle the present and future sanctions imposed on it by the west. In order to materialise this dream, Russia is forced to bring the fanatic and expansionist Chinese President Xi Jinping to come to terms with India. This is the only way out to effective manage the long term ramifications of the war and to balance the equilibrium of world power.
Further, a strong BRICS would be crucial in helping India maintain its long-term stance of non-Alignment. It would also act as deterrence for New Delhi from getting closer to the United States and the Western Bloc. The US has been aligning itself as a strategic partner of India in the recent times to capitalize on the Indian market. If that happens Russia and Putin would be doomed if not immediately but in the longer run as India is a significant trading and diplomatic partner of the Kremlin. Therefore, President Putin is left with no option than to ensure the conflict between India and China is resolved as soon as possible and the Eastern Bloc is strengthened.
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