For years, India has followed various methods of diplomacy and power to counter China in its anti-India stand in the world. Rebuking all the efforts, China, however, continues to advance its hostilities toward India. But, the rise of India has provided an opportunity for the nation to force China to dance to its tune.
Former Prime Minister and Bharat Ratan Atal Bihari Vajpayee once explained the status of neighbours and said, “You can change your friends or even enemies but can never change your neighbours.” China, being the biggest neighbour as well as the rival power, has continuously followed hostile policies towards India. To counter India’s rise, China has constantly taken anti-India stands on various regional, multilateral and international platforms. So, there is an urgent need to follow a multi-pronged strategy to bring it in line.
Except for China, every P-5 country is supporting India in UNSC
In response to a question related to India’s permanent membership in the UNSC, the Minister of State for External Affairs, V Muraleedharan, informed the Lok Sabha that Four of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council have bilaterally expressed official affirmations of support for India’s candidature to a permanent seat in the expanded UN Security Council.
Four of the five permanent members of United Nations Security Council, #UNSC, have bilaterally expressed official affirmations of support for #India’s candidature to a permanent seat in an expanded UN Security Council: @MOS_MEA V. Muraleedharan in the Lok Sabha pic.twitter.com/C7qWmZOi1N
— All India Radio News (@airnewsalerts) July 22, 2022
Speaking about the government’s effort to secure the seat, the minister said, “Towards this end, the government has undertaken various initiatives aimed at building international support for India. The matter is consistently taken up during bilateral and multilateral meetings at all levels, including at the highest levels”.
Except China, every permanent member of the UNSC like Russia, the United Kingdom, France, and the United States have individually argued in favour of India for the permanent seat. Consequently, an effort is being made to persuade China to support India’s bid for a permanent seat at the UNSC.
A concurrent vote of China is mandatory for India’s UNSC membership
According to Article 27 of the UN Charter, every decision of the Security Council on all other matters shall be made by an affirmative vote of non-permanent members and concurrence votes of the permanent members.
Furthermore, to bring an amendment in the UN Charter, to give permanent seats at the Security Council to countries like India, a special resolution by two-thirds of the members of the United Nations General Assembly should be ratified, concluding all the permanent members of the Security Council. So, China’s concurrent vote becomes mandatory for any reform in the UNSC.
And, considering the power rivalry in Asia and the world between India and China, it will take an unprecedented situation in which the two tigers agree to share the same mountain. Here we will discuss the overhaul situation in which China could be persuaded to support India’s bid for the UNSC.
India can save the dying economy of China
Without any quid pro quo, China is not going to support India’s candidature for the UNSC. Until and unless China is not getting anything equivalent to the UNSC seat, the Dragon will continue its hostilities toward India.
Reports suggest that the unending Covid spread and lockdowns thereof have strangulated the Chinese economy. According to a report, 54.4% of the national GDP and half of the population were negatively impacted by the harsh lockdown and the latest outbreak of the Chinese Virus. The country has seen a GDP expansion of a mere 0.4% in the first quarter of 2022.
The default of EMI payments and lower property buyout has created a huge liquidity crisis in the real estate sector. The mortgage is also not an easy job for the developers, as home buyers have refused to pay mortgages and they are organising a social boycott of EMI payments. The looming real estate sector, which accounts for 29% of China’s GDP, has brought the country to the verge of Bankruptcy.
The lockdowns have stopped production, and the source of income has been trimmed. In this case, the exports, which account for 18% of China’s GDP, are also sliding.
While the Covid spread, countries resorted to strengthening their domestic capabilities and so did India. India, under the Atmanirbhar program, pledged to become self-sufficient in the overall production of goods and services. China exports about USD 97.71 billion of goods and services to India and the balance of trade value is one-sided in favour of the Chinese companies. Any import embargo by India against China creates a huge impact on the Chinese economy. Consequently, the self-reliant movement of India has created huge pressure on Chinese businesses.
It is pertinent to note that during the Covid lockdowns, India had put quantitative as well as qualitative restrictions on Chinese FDIs to counter the hostile takeover of its companies and contracts as Chinese investment is mandatorily subjected to the final approval of the Indian government.
With systematic changes in policies and programs, India has not only restricted import from China, but the country is also ready to replace the Dragon in the global export market. If India further advances these policies, Chinese businesses may see a total collapse in international exports.
In this environment, the only country that can save China from becoming a disaster is India. India can liberalise its economic policies for China and let China flourish simultaneously with it. The only condition would be that the Chinese leave their hostile policies towards India and support the nation in getting the UNSC permanent seat.
Isolated China on multilateral platforms
Following debt diplomacy and bully behaviour, China has already distorted its relationship with the smaller countries in the Indo-Pacific region. Its neighbours like Vietnam, the Philippines, and Indonesia are securing defence ties with India and India’s neighbours have already seen the consequences of friendship with China in the form of Sri Lanka and Pakistan. No one is ready to stand behind China and support it.
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In the form of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), an economic coalition has been created to fight the monopoly of Chinese businesses in the region. Leaving China, almost every country in the Indo-Pacific like the United States, Australia, Brunei Darussalam, India, Indonesia, Japan, Republic of Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam have been included and have formed this alliance to make strong economic cooperation against China.
A global discontent against China and its market has forced many multinational companies to shift their manufacturing plants to other countries. Companies like Nike, Apple, Samsung, LG Electronics, Adidas, Puma, Airbnb, Foxconn, KIA Motors, Hyundai, Dell, HP, Google, Microsoft, and other manufacturers started to shift their production from China. The mass shift in the manufacturing base affected the employment rate in China and created a mass crunch of money.
On the world map, China stands isolated and no one is ready to befriend the Dragon. An international movement has started against China in the world on various international platforms. The US-led international and multilateral platforms have sidelined China. Except for Russia, no one is allied with China on various global issues. Russia itself is being sidelined. If China does not find a strong friend like India in its favour, then they will forever be isolated on global platforms.
Wolf warrior and debt-trap diplomacy of China failed miserably
Xi Jinping’s effort to revive the ancient Silk Road is already dying its death. In the name of mutual economic development, China pursued debt-trap diplomacy. The unsustainable and unreasonable ‘developmental projects’ created a situation in which countries were effectively forced to lease out their lands to China, losing their sovereign rights over their own lands.
When a global voice against the corrupt means of China developed, emboldened by power and money, China resorted to creating wolf warrior diplomats to defend the assertive policies of Xi Jinping. Following the Wolf Warrior Diplomacy, Chinese diplomats used confrontational, rhetoric, and coercive approaches to defend their burdened policies.
However, it did not last long. Learning lessons from the economic condition of Pakistan, Maldives, and Sri Lanka, countries are now running from the Chinese ‘developmental’ projects. Further, countries are on a spree to get rid-off Chinese companies, leaving them in a huge conundrum.
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Considering the various economic, social, political, and international conditions, China needs a strong partner to help them out on various issues. In this looming situation, India can be that one support to China on various issues. India can help them in reviving their export market and provide support to their dying economy. Furthermore, India can also support China on various international and multinational platforms, to synergise policy reforms in favour of the global south and global east.
India’s support to China can only come in the condition that the Dragon supports India’s permanent candidature for the UNSC. Without the quid pro quo of a UNSC seat, India is going to neither support China nor will the country stop its actions against the Chinese companies. The only option left for China is to support India’s candidature; otherwise, the Chinese Communist Party will dig its own grave.
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