Pakistan has suddenly stopped talking about Kashmir. A ceasefire understanding was established on the Line of Control and there hasn’t been any major incident since then.
So, why is Pakistan behaving all of a sudden? Has there been a change of heart? Well, no. It is actually all about wheat as Pakistan begs India for mercy and wheat.
India, Pakistan backchannel talks
As per a report by Pakistan’s Express Tribune, Islamabad and New Delhi have engaged in “backchannel” talks in order to break the deadlock in the bilateral relationship.
As per the report, the backchannel diplomacy has been taking place even before the Shehbaz Sharif government came to power in Islamabad. However, both the countries have remained quiet about it.
The backchannel contacts did lead to the ceasefire understanding in February 2021 that has been honoured substantially though there wasn’t a resumption of the bilateral dialogue.
Shehbaz Sharif’s government intensifies engagement with India
As per Express Tribune, the Shehbaz Sharif government has made a renewed push to resolve issues.
Express Tribune quoted an official as saying, “Call it back channels, Track-II or behind-the-scene talks, I can only confirm that relevant people in both countries are in touch with each other.” The discussions are however said to have been kept under the wraps till any substantial result is derived from them.
The report also quotes a senior political leader from the coalition government in Pakistan as saying, “Our policy is clear. We want to engage with everyone, including India.” The sources also said that countries like the UK and the US are also pushing for de-escalation of tensions between New Delhi and Islamabad and opening some sort of a formal channel of communication between the two sides.
It’s all about wheat
Now, we are simply not used to seeing Pakistan behave, engage, cut down on terrorism and reduce ceasefire violations. What Pakistan is doing is somewhat unreal. And this is where wheat comes in. The prices of wheat have shot up drastically in the international market following the war between Russia and Ukraine. Few countries including India have ample wheat stock to manage themselves during the ongoing war.
However, India has imposed a ban on wheat exports and has only allowed government-to-government transactions in the necessary commodity.
Pakistan itself needs wheat given its perennial food shortage issues and the rising prices of the staple commodity.
Express Tribune stated, “India is one of the top 3 wheat producers in the world and Pakistan this season plans to import 4 million metric tons of wheat to meet its domestic shortage. Pakistan could import wheat from India on a much lower cost, given the less transportation and other logistic charges.”
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Presently, Pakistan is trying to source at least 2 million tons of wheat from Russia. However, Moscow may not be able to meet Pakistan’s demand because it is already engaged in a war with Ukraine and is unlikely to set apart such huge quantities of grains for export. Moreover, the logistical costs of importing wheat via Russia are likely to be exorbitant and unaffordable for Islamabad.
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Therefore, Pakistani strategists do understand that they will need to import wheat from India sooner or later. Yes, they keep saying that they won’t import wheat from India in order to play to the sentiments of the radical clergy and the military of Pakistan.
Pakistan’s sudden change of heart has thus been invoked by wheat shortages. Pakistan has therefore dropped the Kashmir issue and has started begging for wheat from India.
