Conventional wisdom would suggest that the Russian economy has been wrecked, and that the future of the Russian Federation is grim, at best. What many analysts forget to mention is the fact that Russia has been preparing for an eventuality such as the Ukraine war since 2014. It was after the invasion of Crimea that Vladimir Putin realised that NATO’s eastward expansion needed to be stopped at all costs. Therefore, Russia made sure that its forex reserves surged to the fourth largest in the world – amounting to $630 billion.
Only about 16 per cent of Russia’s foreign exchange is currently in dollars. That figure was close to 40 per cent in 2016-17. It has also been upping its gold reserves for a long time now. Why, you might ask? To insulate its economy from the West as much as possible. Now, the United States finds itself in a precarious situation. It is, in fact, unconsciously leading a de-dollarisation campaign around the world, and the detrimental effects will be visible to Washington soon enough.
The West has been pushing Russia to make itself self-sufficient and economically independent of any other nation, barring perhaps the likes of large economies like India and China. In the short terms, the impact of the West’s sanctions will surely be very painful. But how long do Washington and its allies think Russia will suffer? Surely, the consequences will not be lasting until eternity. Ultimately, Russia will boomerang as an independent and even stronger economy.
Russia Too Big to be Tamed
Multinational companies seem to be of the opinion that if they suspend operations in Russia; stop selling their goods and services to the Russians; Moscow will fall to its knees.
Such establishments are frankly, out of their mind. Russia is just too big, too strong and too old to begin crawling on four paws only because the West finally decided to dissociate from Moscow. Does the West truly believe that Russia will not build its own institutions, systems and companies in the future?
Does the West think that a country of Russia’s size will be paralysed only because a few big multinational companies decided they no longer want to have anything to do with Russia?
Russia still has access to the markets of India, China, African nations and even Southeast Asia. The Middle East, meanwhile, continues to be sympathetic for Moscow. The only region which has decided to delink itself from Russia is the West – comprising the United States, Canada, United Kingdom and some European nations. Europe, by the way, depends on Russian oil and gas, and has been blockading efforts by Washington to impose sanctions on Russia’s energy sector.
Russia will create parallels. Maybe not immediately, but it definitely will. Currently, Russia has shifted its focus from economic growth to economic stability. In the coming years, however, Russia will build alternatives to the West’s hegemonic institutions. It will do so with Asian giants like India and China.
The world will be divided into two blocs – a rising Eastern bloc and a sinking Western bloc. Russia is a part of the Eastern bloc. It will reap benefits out of Asia’s growth to a great extent. The West will land up with nothing but egg on its face as early as 2040.
India – Biggest Beneficiary of Russia’s Rise
Russia’s rise as a superpower in the coming decades will tremendously benefit India. Ties between New Delhi and Moscow are strong as ever. Vladimir Putin has seen first-hand how India has kept its national interests at the frontier and sided with Russia, while refusing to toe the West’s line.
Russia is offering oil to India at heavily discounted rates. Overtures like these will only heighten in scale and size as Russia grows truly independent of the West and builds a self-sufficient economy for itself. Russia and India are all-weather and time-tested allies. Russia’s rise will naturally benefit India in a variety of ways.
Read more: Russia has proven to be India’s best friend yet again
That does not mean India will sever ties with the West or the United States of America. India is crucial to the strategic interests of all countries. The U.S. cannot and will not abandon India. Washington cannot afford to sour ties with New Delhi. That will place India in the unique position of maintaining close ties with both Moscow as well as Washington. The benefits of the same are just too many to list in one go.
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