- Left is staging state-wide protests in Bengal against the killing of Anis Khan
- The sheer number of protestors suggest that it has gained popularity in the last 2 to 3 years
- TMC’s vote bank is set to drift in favour of the left, which will ultimately benefit BJP as the left cannot return to its old glory days
Despite a severe setback in elections last year, Mamata’s TMC is still believed to be a unanimously accepted party in Bengal. But, beneath every dominance, there is a spring of rebellion taking shape. That is true for Bengal as well.
Anis’ murder
Recently, a young Muslim leader Anis Khan was killed by four people in the wee hours of the night. According to his father, out of the 4 people who killed Anis, one was in an official Bengal Police uniform while 3 others were wearing civil volunteers’ dress.
Meanwhile, due to his political background, the alleged murder has turned into a political controversy. Anis was an active student leader. For a major part of his life, he was connected with the much-derided Student Federation of India (SFI), the student wing of CPI-M.
Read more: The heartbreaking story of Anis Khan who was mercilessly killed by TMC goons
The left has decided to not take the incident lightly. Left parties are protesting in the whole state demanding justice for Anis and his family. Moreover, they are having scuffles with police which indicates that the legitimacy of Bengal police under Mamata has nosedived for Bengal’s left.
Read more: The state is burning and they are nowhere to be seen – The absolute apathy of West Bengal Police
Statewide protests can upshoot left’s politics
The statewide protest by the left is seen by many as the start of the resurgence of left politics in Bengal. In the 2021 West Bengal assembly elections, less than 7 per cent of Bengali voters favoured the Left front to come to power. This was abysmally low compared to the first time it was ousted from power in 2011. Even then it held the confidence of 30 per cent of voters in Bengal.
However, during the last two years of the covid enforced crisis, the left’s student cadre has done some tremendous work on ground level. It is only on the back of those humanitarian works, that the cadre has been able to galvanise so many people in such a small interval of time. Additionally, people dissatisfied with TMC’s Gundaraaj also played a key role.
If the left is able to unite and come to the fore, it’s only BJP that is set to gain. To understand it, we have to understand the voter dynamic of Bengal.
Dynamics of Bengal politics
Bengali votes are mainly divided into two broad vote banks: Hindu and Muslim. Muslims comprise 30 per cent of voters in the state while Hindus make up the rest 70 per cent. It is largely believed that Muslims unanimously vote for a single party, which is currently TMC. Some Muslims do go for Congress and others, but their numbers are negligible.
On the other hand, Hindus are divided into different vote banks. One of them is Bengali Bhadralok, composed of upper-class elites belonging to the Brahmin, Baidya and Kayastha caste. They are numerical minorities but wield a fair amount of power in the corridors of Bengal politics. The other group is composed of historically underprivileged castes.
Bengali elites returning to left?
Bengali Bhadraloks are known for their greed for power. Currently, they are largely aligned with TMC. But Bhadralokis’ opportunism knows no boundaries. When they saw a wave of anti-elite violent left going against them, they spent no time calling themselves leftists and a lot of these elites emerged as key leaders of a movement that was meant to be led by working-class people.
When the left came to power, these Bhadralokis were present here as well. They ruled Bengal for the next 30 years. However, as soon as they saw the wind blowing in favour of TMC in the wake of the TATA NANO protests, they were quick to pounce on TMC. In the 2021 Bengal assembly elections, they ran towards BJP only to return to TMC after election results.
From last year, most of them are with TMC but it’s only a matter of time before they shift back to left.
Muslims will go left
If these protests continue for longer, the left will see a massive upsurge in the number of its Bhadraloks. Moreover, internally it is believed that the left is closer to Muslims than Mamata. It is the left government that gave OBC reservations to Muslims in the state, which was later capitalised on by Mamata. Moreover, the Mamata government is accused of providing cover to murderers of Anis, a Muslim. If the left can properly pass on this message to the masses, Mamata can easily lose 30 per cent of Muslim vote banks. Basically, Bengal is set for the second round of battle divide between TMC and LEFT.
Read more: Left Media, Bollywood and Mamata do not actually want West Bengal to advance
BJP to benefit from the divide
The dwindling vote bank of the above two parties is only going to benefit BJP in long run. On one hand, TMC will weaken which will mean that it will lose a large chunk of its votes; while on the other hand LEFT will rise but they are so further down the pit that they will only be effective in pulling votes from TMC’s faction. A majority of voters not happy with both LEFT and TMC are up for grabs by the BJP. This will add to the BJP’s recent success in Bengal.
In the 2021 Bengal elections, BJP came second with a 38 per cent vote share. It increased its seat from 3 to 77 in 5 years. This came on the back of an effective election strategy. BJP has been able to carve out a vote bank for itself in traditionally backward voting groups. BJP has worked on wooing those Hindu groups who feel disenfranchised by the inclusion of Muslims in OBC by TMC. These groups include Mahisyas and Telis. In the last election, BJP witnessed an upsurge in support from Mahisyas dominated areas of Midnapore, Howrah, Hooghly, Nadia and 24 Parganas.
Bengalis are tired of 40 years of political violence. They are looking for a way out. Only if BJP could play its cards well, it will benefit disproportionately.