Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his morning address to the nation on the occasion of Gurpurab, announced that the three farm laws will be repealed. His decision immediately brought varied schools of response from the public. However, a common thread that ran through nearly every observation was the connection of today’s decision to the upcoming state assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh and Punjab.
Of the two states, it was a given up until today’s eventful morning, that the BJP was romping home to a victory in Uttar Pradesh. Punjab remained a dream, an attainable one, but still a dream. However, with the sudden decision of brooming away the farm laws, the equations have changed and for the first time, there is a sense of uncertainty gripping the BJP camp and its future in both states.
Will Captain Amarinder joining forces with BJP and help the latter?
In Punjab, Congress is on a self-destruction spree with Navjot Singh Sidhu as the destructor-in-chief. Congress’ ace in the pack, Captain Amarinder Singh has already ejected away. Amid the whispers of Captain joining the BJP, the former floated his party and surprised many.
However, he left the door ajar for a BJP entry, by remarking ‘if the central government repealed the farm laws, he would join the saffron party’. His meeting with Union Home Minister Amit Shah and NSA Chief Ajit Doval last month further indicated that something was indeed cooking.
Also read: Capt Amarinder meets Amit Shah and Ajit Doval to make sure that Pakistan’s man Sidhu faces the music
However, Modi government dropping the towel on farm laws, rather tamely, must have been an eventuality that even Amarinder Singh would not have prophesied to come true so quickly. Even if he joins forces with BJP, there is no guarantee for the saffron party that it will make significant strides. Thus, the ‘Queen’s gambit’ to sacrifice the 303 mandate to gain a foothold in a 117-seat assembly appears a rather risky move.
Narendra Modi – the mirage that is fading?
Speaking of risky moves, it appears that the majority of the public that votes for the BJP – the middle class, has had its confidence shattered in the main man. Narendra Modi, up until this point was the indefatigable leader who could do nothing wrong. The setbacks that the NDA leader suffered were often referred to as a minor blip in his otherwise magnificent political career.
However, the decision to cower down in front of the violent mob of farmer protestors is expected to anger the middle class, which for all thoughts and purposes, might show its discontent by pressing a different election party symbol, during the elections.
Also read: By repealing the farm laws, what is PM Modi actually trying to do?
After the morning announcement, even UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath appeared to go through the motions while showing his support to PM Modi. It looked as if Yogi had already calculated ramifications of the reckless ‘9 AM’ move, and the result didn’t please him much.
In the address he remarked, “We know how farmer unions were protesting against the three farm laws. On the occasion of Gurpurab, PM Modi has made a historic decision to repeal the farm laws. I welcome the decision with all my heart. From the very beginning, there was a large group of people who believed that farm laws could pave the way towards increasing the farmer’s income.”
आदरणीय प्रधानमंत्री श्री @narendramodi जी द्वारा तीनों कृषि कानूनों को वापस लेने के निर्णय पर… pic.twitter.com/EwjmOpaTG7
— Yogi Adityanath (मोदी का परिवार) (@myogiadityanath) November 19, 2021
Also read: PM Modi announces that the three farm laws will be repealed. Shameful retreat or tactical move?
BJP needs to understand that it came to power riding on the vote of only 37% of the population. It doesn’t need to win everyone. Trying to woo the vote banks that have traditionally never voted for it is not a smart strategy. The party risks losing its core base and if that happens, god bless, but even a Modi or Yogi Tsunami will not be able to secure a turnaround.
I think farm laws weren’t getting votes. But BJP was losing Jat votes and new alliances were getting planned on the basis of its protests. The lakhimpur kheri violence showed that.
Seriously jat were never BJP voters. In uttar pradesh they are not more than 2% of entire UP Population. Jats always voted for Ajit Singh RLD and in Haryana to Chautala family, and Congress. BJP will lose its core votebank now. Modiji will lose everything now.
Whether Farm laws are repealed or not either way, Punjab voters, minority and left wing voters never ever in their life time don’t support the BJP.
Instead of BJP trying to appease left wing and minority voters, BJP shouldn’t ignore their core Hindu vote banks and if BJP continues this path of ignoring their core Hindu vote bank, they will lose everyone’s support.
Core Hindutva voters is a mirage BJP gets 0 votes from hindutva. Majority of hindus are timid and secular. Mahants don’t go to vote, Primarily Modi’s doles for poor get him elected.
Modi’s move seems correct as SC is sitting over laws so they cannot be implemented any ways and BJP is chosing paths of least confrontation but mostly agitation will not end but will increase as they are have tasted blood now which may be good for BJP as UP farmers which are not khalastanis, probably will see though what is told to them by these so called ‘farmers’
I think this decision was taken from a national security point of view as losing Punjab will open up a lot of Pakistani-Khalistani activity.
This is not a defeat for Modi or BJP. It’s rather change of plan and tactics while also conserving energy and channelizing it in a different direction. It’s not Congress which gets vote but Captain Amrinder Singh who gets them. It’s too early what advantage will he get by joining hands with BJP but it seems BJP wants Congress vote to get weakened in Punjab. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi may claim this as a victory for Congress but in reality this is simply change of tactics. With elections in. U.P. and Punjab too close, farmers issue was a big blocker draining them. The day of chosing the withdrawal, political developments in Punjab, U.P., threat of security in Punjab and bordering states all point out to sense prevail over trying patient of a well funded, well oiled artificial protest which has been hogging headlines, propelled wealth and status of otherwise lackluster farmer leaders. This will not have any impact on U.P. elections. All the more it will save time amd energy to focus on the rest of issues. Farmer leaders will need to go home, court can take action. Time for plan C. Amrinder.
The song that describes today’s BJP best – Gairon pe karam, Apnon pe sitam … ae janewafa yeh zulm na kar 🙄 😡