Weeks after they decided to come together, the alliance between Asaduddin Owaisi-led AIMIM and Omprakash Rajbhar-led Suheldev Party is set to break in a few weeks. Owaisi, who was campaigning in Western Uttar Pradesh, reached Moradabad where he offered a chadar at the dargah of Ghazi Majju Khan.
This irked many leaders of the Rajbhar community because historically the Rajbhars (the community to which Raja Suheldev, who fought against the Muslim invaders belonged) and Ghazis were enemies. Ghazis, who belonged to the Ghaznavi dynasty of Persia (modern-day Iran), attacked India under the leadership of Ghazi Miyan and were defeated by Raja Suheldev, the brave king who belonged to the Rajbhar community.
So, the Muslims and Rajbhar community are historical enemies, and the opportunistic alliance of Owaisi and Rajbhar was set to break in a few weeks or months. After Owaisi offered a chadar at the Shrine of Ghazi Miyan, the people of the Rajbhar community started questioning Omprakash Rajbhar’s decision to ally with AIMIM.
Rajbhar realized that he has made a big mistake and he could lose the voter base and decided to distance himself from Owaisi’s campaign in Western Uttar Pradesh.
Previously Rajbhar and Owaisi came together along with many other smaller parties and named it Bhagidari Sankalp Morcha. Rajbhar even came up with the most bizarre power-sharing formula for UP, months before the 2022 Uttar Pradesh assembly Election. Rajbhar’s party is part of Bhagidari Sankalp Morcha, which is a coalition of 10 parties. He clearly stated that there will be five different chief ministers in five years: one Muslim, one Rajbhar, one Chauhan, one Kushwaha, and one Patel and four deputy CMs in a year and 20 in five years.
Rajbhar’s power-sharing agenda displays a sort of instability although he states, “We are clear that everyone will be treated equally in the coalition.” He expressed confidence in Bhagidari Sanklalp Morcha’s ability to secure a comfortable victory in the UP polls.
Rajbhars have traditionally voted for SP, moved to BJP in 2017, but a section is not happy with the BJP, and Om Prakash Rajbhar, their tallest leader, made a new party. The unnatural alliance of the lower caste of Hindus and Muslims is not sustainable and has not worked anywhere else because they have been traditionally opponents and brave kings like Suheldev have fought historic fights and defeated the Muslims.
The stage in Uttar Pradesh is set for another term for Yogi Adityanath. As reported by TFI, according to an ABP-C Voter survey conducted in March earlier this year, if elections were to be held now, BJP would storm into power once again. The BJP is projected to win 289 seats in the 403-seat Uttar Pradesh Assembly. Meanwhile, SP is projected to be the second-largest party with 59 seats followed by BSP with 38 seats but not posing any real challenge to the BJP.
BJP can afford to let its guard down and go easy on the election preparations, but ‘ruthless’ seems to be the keyword passed along from the party high command. The preparations have begun and despite the weak situation of the opposition (especially the BSP), the BJP does not want to leave any loophole in its electoral preparedness. There are ample signs pointing towards Yogi’s storming back to power, however, the only clarity that remains to be seen is the margin of victory.
