For decades, Muslims of the country have traditionally voted for Congress but since the 1990s, even regional parties like RJD, TMC, SP, TRS, and others have gained the trust of the Muslim voters. AIMIM – the party led by Asaddudin Owaisi, has emerged as a pan-national Muslim party in the last few years, which can surely fetch votes and prove to be a voter cutter in the poll-bound state of West Bengal.
With the rise of Owaisi in the last few years, Muslims are once again rallying behind one leader and consolidating their votes. After winning five seats in the Muslim-dominated regions of Bihar during the assembly election of 2020, Owaisi has announced that his party will be contesting the West Bengal assembly election, and would field its candidates on all seats.
After being dumped by Abbas Siddique of Furufura Sharif, the AIMIM for the Congress-left alliance, Owaisi is playing a different game in Bengal altogether. AIMIM’s Bengal President is openly claiming that his party is ready for an alliance with TMC in order to defeat BJP despite being aware of the fact that Mamata Banerjee would never provide space for another party to dent her core Muslim vote bank.
However, Bengal AIMIM President Jamirul Hasan has repeatedly made claims that they are ready to ally with TMC in order to put TMC in a tough spot. If Mamata Banerjee chooses to go for an alliance with AIMIM – chances of which are rare – it will be a loss of face value for Mamata Banerjee as the biggest leader of Muslims of West Bengal and gain for Owaisi as it would prove that no regional party could win Muslim votes without an alliance with AIMIM.
And, if Mamata Banerjee does not go for an alliance, the AIMIM leaders can claim that they tried their best to consolidate Muslim votes against BJP but TMC refused to give them the chance because all the party wants is to increase its power, not the welfare of Muslims.
So, AIMIM wins both ways, but the second option is more optimal and likely for them because it would enable them to play the victim card and bag a large number of Muslim voters.
The 30% minority voters in West Bengal always had a major say in electing the state’s Chief Minister with Mamata’s two terms too heavily relied on wooing the minority electorate. However, this time around, not only is Mamata battling tremendous anti-incumbency due to her absolute bungling in the handling of the Wuhan coronavirus pandemic and the utter lawlessness, the Owaisi, and Siddiqui factors threaten to upset her applecart by snatching away the minority voter base.
Moreover, given the fact that a large number of the Hindus, especially in the Western and Northern part of the state, rallied behind the BJP in the 2019 general elections and will surely rally behind it in the 2021 assembly election too, the Muslim voter base is very crucial for TMC.
Therefore, Owaisi’s smart move is going to cost TMC heavily because it will gain at the cost of the incumbent CM. The Hindu voters are rallying behind BJP while Muslim voters have TMC, AIMIM, Congress-left alliance, and many independent parties among the contestants, and this will push Mamata Banerjee miles behind its primary opponent.