This year’s Indian polity will be defined by the results of the keenly awaited West Bengal Assembly elections as a resurgent and an expansionist BJP sets its eyes on the state it has never won since its inception. Up against Mamata Banerjee and TMC with the former having a cult like following and a Left-INC alliance which is hand in glove with the incumbent TMC government to keep the BJP at bay, it is essentially a BJP vs All fight in West Bengal. Early indications show that everything is going for the BJP, however, there’s one factor which can completely derail the party’s juggernaut in Bengal : the complacent BJP voter.
As almost every prominent TMC leader worth his salt and not dependent on Mamata’s popularity to win elections has switched sides to the BJP. There’s a feeling on the ground that the BJP will trump the TMC especially after the likes of Suvendhu Adhikari, Rajib Banerjee and Dinesh Trivedi have all quit the party.
This is evidently visible from a recent poll conducted by Times Now – CVoter which revealed that a whopping 41.6 per cent of the people who were surveyed, felt that the BJP is ahead as of now, followed by the TMC with 36.9 per cent people stating that Mamata’s party is ahead currently. The Congress and Left filled up the rest of the places by scoring 8.8 and 4.4 per cent respectively.
However, the same poll reveals that Mamata is by far the most popular CM face with the survey revealing that 54.3 per cent of the respondents stated that Mamata is their most preferred choice for the post-Bengal CM.
Read More: Latest poll says BJP is winning Bengal but it needs a CM face immediately to make this come true
Now, a latest poll by ABP News reveals that TMC will emerge as the single largest party by winning 151 seats with a vote share of 41.09 per cent. While the BJP will secure a record breaking performance, but is predicted to finish only second with 117 seats and corner a vote share of 36.64 per cent.
Clearly, as this stand, this is no landslide election with BJP trouncing the TMC and others. In fact, it is a distinct possibility that should Mamata and TMC just fall short and BJP despite being the single largest party not able to cross the majority mark, the Left-INC with a handful of their seats will back Mamata and TMC and push them over the line and create a similar alliance like that of the Maha Vikas Aghadi in Maharashtra.
The BJP is still reeling from the ghosts of 2004, where an expected victory and the return of the Vajpayee government turned into a shock loss. While the 2019 Lok Sabha elections have gone a long way in assuaging the party’s concerns over voter complacency, it can least afford complacency when it comes to West Bengal.
Mamata’s core voter base knows that TMC is on a sticky wicket and will go all out to vote for her, whereas, the BJP voter under the false impression of a landslide BJP victory might prefer to stay at home and not vote which will prove to be a nightmare situation for the saffron party.
Let’s take the example of Chattisgarh. In the 2018 Assembly elections, the vote share of BJP increased in North and South region of Chhattisgarh, which used to be the weak zone for the party. But in central Chhattisgarh, which was considered to be a party stronghold, dragged the party to a resounding defeat. The population in the Central Chhattisgarh is mainly comprised of upper cast and OBC, which have traditionally voted for the BJP.
Read More: Early voting trends in the elections unmask the complacency of BJP supporter
It is likely that in the closely fought Bengal election, it will all come down to booth management with the BJP cadre having a task on its hands to ensure there’s no voter complacency this time around.
Why you missed Delhi 2020 elections? The euphoria around BJP was high, which translated in to vote % as BJP gained 8% vote from 2016 and AAP stayed at 54%, but AAP won 62 out of 70. The same PK was behind that planning. What spoiled BJP’s chances were 1) AAP had tacit support of Congress, 2) BJP had no CM candidate to counter AK.
If TMC, Cong and Communist join forces, then it can become tough for BJP. For CM face they are talking to Mithun, but he is not a seasoned politician and he will not be able to counter Mamta, on the contrary, he may turn out to be another Kiran Bedi. This Bengal elections have very high stakes, especially for the left ecosystem. BJP, TMC, PK, Sharad Pawar, Leftists….everyone seems to be actively involved. PK’s image will be completely destroyed even if its a hung assembly. He got a govt. of 80% majority and he failed.
Bengal is absolutely not as clear as a part of media seems to be projecting. There are a lot of slips between the cup and the lips. However, if BJP actually wins Bengal (as of now it seems unlikely), then it will severely break the back of left ecosystem.
Like you said , Tall leader as CM candidate and Zero Complacency by Voters are a must for the BJP win.