At a time when almost all the exit polls suggest the ouster of Nitish Kumar led NDA government in Bihar, a survey by the students of Delhi University comes as a ray of hope for the incumbent CM. In a joint survey of the Developing State Research Center of Delhi University and the Department of Political Science, NDA is projected to win 45 percent of the vote and 129 seats- 7 more than the majority of 122. On the other hand, the Tejashwi Yadav led Mahagathbandhan is projected to get 38 percent of the vote and 106 seats.
NDA, which constituted BJP, JD(U), and LJP in the 2019 general election, won 39 out of 40 seats. If we go by that projection, a majority to the NDA looks very likely even when LJP is not part of the alliance. However, in the 2019 general election, people were voting for PM Modi, so irrespective of the party and candidate, they gave votes to whoever could install the BJP leader on the PM chair once again.
On the other hand, Nitish Kumar, whom the NDA projected as CM candidate, is facing a huge anti-incumbency wave. However, BJP, which is fighting on 110 seats, is expected to perform better and the party might be able to pull off the election with the help from smaller allies like Mukesh Sahni led VIP and Chirag Paswan led LJP.
Had the BJP gone into the election alone, it would have won easily. The pollsters from India Today, Axis My India also confirmed that if the BJP had fought the election without Nitish Kumar as CM face, it would have won the elections. But, the high command of BJP decided to back the Nitish Kumar and Sushil Modi duo, both of whom are facing anti-incumbency.
India Today-Axis My India poll, which has made a record predicting almost all the election results rightly, gave MGB an easy victory with 139-161 seats. All the other pollsters, too, give MGB some margin or lead over NDA. This survey by NDA is a glimmer of hope for the NDA and Nitish Kumar.
The performance of Nitish Kumar-led NDA government in Bihar has been below average and the CM with 15 years of experience proved to be the most ineffective leader of the country after Uddhav Thackeray in dealing with Coronavirus induced lockdown.
Most of the Bihari migrant voters voted for RJD because they were frustrated with Nitish Kumar’s handling of the migrant crisis. At the time when UP, Jharkhand sent buses to bring back their students from cities like Kota and Delhi, Nitish Kumar advised them to stay back instead of returning to their families. The migrant labourers from Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Maharashtra recorded videos as they criticised Nitish Kumar because their CM was not doing anything to bring them back to their families amid lockdown.
“A take away from the exit poll is that the migrant workers have chosen to back Tejashwi Yadav over Nitish Kumar. The India Today-Axis My India exit poll data shows that migrant labourers preferred the Mahagathbandhan over the NDA with 44 per cent voting in its favour while 37 per cent preferring the latter,” wrote India Today in its report on exit polls.
The anger against Nitish Kumar harmed the prospects of BJP in the state. The central command of BJP sacrificed the alliance with Chirag Paswan led LJP, who sensed the anger against Kumar and split from NDA in the state. The saffron party had the golden chance to dump the JD(U) from the alliance and announce Nityanand Rai or Chirag Paswan as the CM candidate. But it chose Kumar over Paswan and the results today are in front of everyone.
The NDA might be able to form the government if BJP and other smaller parties that could come with the party like LJP, VIP perform well, but it should learn a lesson and bid adieu to Nitish Kumar.
I think its wishful thinking. When most Exit polls show same thing, then the trend is always predicted right. So, RJD will remain the largest party after elections.
Also, swing is most important, like before 2019 General elections pollsters were expecting hung assembly, but after Balakot things started to swing in favor of BJP and by the time of results BJP+ was 340 (way above majority). This time in Bihar, 3 months ago everyone was sure NDA will return, but now Exit polls are showing hung assembly in favor of RJD. I think this swing will be more than expected and Today’s Chanakya prediction of 180 for RJD+ is possible.
BJP took a huge gamble of contesting with JDU and using LJP as a side kick, it backfired big time. They invoked anti-nitish sentiments, but the votes went to RJD rather than BJP. I think Bihar had more hatred for Nitish than fear of RJD. Also, Tejaswi idea of disassociation with Lalu-raaj made people give him one chance. BJP should learn from this, but I don’t think they would. BJP just gave one of the most important state in a platter to RJD. The aftereffects of this mistake will last till UP elections.