Sources suggest that Nitish Kumar, despite the NDA winning in Bihar, is anything but happy. This, because the results of the JD(U) could have been much better than what they have come out as, only if the NDA was able to keep Chirag Paswan’s LJP in their fold. The LJP going ahead and fighting the polls alone, and fielding candidates mostly against the JD(U) has wrecked the political fortunes of Nitish Kumar in this election. In fact, the JD(U) has lost over 25 seats to the LJP’s vote-cutting, and this is a fact which will haunt Nitish Kumar for times immemorial.
Chirag Paswan alone has ensured that the JD(U) is reduced to an insignificant alliance partner within the NDA. The LJP’s cutting of JD(U) votes has ensured that Nitish Kumar loses deposits on many seats, and is reduced to the third-largest party in the state, much to his dismay, behind even the BJP. It is almost as if Chirag Paswan prepared a JD(U) hitlist, and has been successful in severely denting Nitish Kumar’s prospects on many seats. On over 25 seats, the number of votes which the LJP polled are either close to, or above the JD(U)’s defeat margins. Had the LJP not fielded candidates against the JD(U), Nitish Kumar would still be leading the NDA in Bihar with over 70 seats. Now, it has been reduced to 42.
The LJP’s vote share saw an increase from 4.83 per cent in 2015 to 5.63 per cent this time around. In order to prove our assertion of the JD(U) losing its deposits on over 20 seats due to the LJP cutting its votes, we look at certain seats from Bihar. For example, in Barharia, the JDU lost by 3559 votes while LJP got 5065 votes. In Chenari JDU lost by 18003 votes, while the LJP got 18074 of them. In Dhauraiya, JDU lost by 2687, while LJP polled 4081 votes. Some other seats where such voting occurred are Alauli, Atri, Darbhanga rural, Ekma, Gaighat, Islampur, Khagaria, Samastipur, etc.
In fact, it would not be an overstatement by far to say that Chirag Paswan has shot the JD(U)’s political fortunes right in the leg, even as the LJP lost almost all of its deposits in these elections, except on one seat. Nevertheless, Paswan has managed to deflate Nitish Kumar’s ego big time, and for anyone to write off the LJP, led by Chirag just yet would be idiotic. In the coming times, the LJP will surely emerge as a major force in Bihar, and a trailer of its capabilities has already been shown to the people of India yesterday.
Good analysis. With just 1.5% votes AIMIM got 5 seats and LJP got only 1 seat despite 5.6% votes. It is difficult to determine the exact damage it has done to other parties, but your analysis is really good.