The General Elections 2019 concluded today with the completion of 7th phase of polling. With the conclusion of polling, exit polls by various news channels are being published now. Most of the exit polls have predicted clear majority for the NDA.
In the crucial northern states (J&K, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Punjab), exit polls have predicted somewhat divided mandate. While exit polls are divided on J&K, in Punjab INC has a clear edge. In Himachal and Uttarakhand, NDA seems to be victorious, if exit polls are to be believed.
But before going into details of the exit polls of 2019, let us have look at how the exit polls fared in 2014 elections vis-a-vis these states.
While it was a battle between the grand old party and the BJP in the two northern states of Himachal Pradesh and Uttrakhand; Jammu and Kashmir and Punjab had strong regional powers fighting for supremacy in the state. Different exit polls gave different results.
Taking a look at Jammu and Kashmir, 4 parties dominate the polls. They are the two national parties INC and BJP, along with 2 regional parties PDP and JKNC. The state sends 6 representatives to the Lok Sabha. In the sample survey, the Times Now- India TV- C voter exit poll had a prediction stating BJP and PDP will secure 2 seats each while INC and JKNC will secure a single seat each. None of the other exit polls have in depth data for the state.
After the polling, BJP had emerged victorious in 3 constituencies. PDP and NC had secured 1 seat each and 1 seat had remained vacant. INC’s presence had been completely wiped off from the state.
Himachal Pradesh’s total share of the seats in the Parliament is 4. Based on the sample data of Times Now- India TV- C voter, pre poll survey, they gave an estimate of 3 seats to BJP and 1 seat to INC in 2014. None of the other exit polls conducted in depth research in the state of Himachal Pradesh.
The final result of the state was somewhat similar to the exit poll with a minor change. Instead of 3 seats as the survey had predicted, BJP secured all 4 seats in the state. Congress witnessed a huge failure as they didn’t manage to get any seats in Himachal Pradesh in 2014.
The state of Uttarakhand has 5 seats in the Lok Sabha where the primary contest is between INC and BJP. According to the Times Now- India TV- C voter exit poll, BJP was getting all 5 seats in the 2014 elections.
The final result of the state was exactly as expected. Congress could not secure a single seat in the state of Uttarakhand. BJP secured all 5 seats in the Lok Sabha, a drastic change from 2009 wherein they hadn’t secured even a single seat.
The state of Punjab witnessed a contest between INC and NDA comprised of BJP and SAD primarily. The state holds 13 seats in the Lok Sabha. According to the Times Now- India TV- C voter exit poll, the BJP was winning 2 seats, INC was winning 6 seats and SAD was winning 5 seats. Similarly, in the NDTV-Hansa Research, INC was getting 6 seats while the pre-poll alliance of BJP and SAD was getting 7 seats.
The final result of the state was completely in contrast to the exit poll. Congress secured 3 seats, a huge letdown from their earlier 8 seats. The alliance of BJP and SAD secured 6 seats, with BJP and SAD getting 2 and 4 seats, respectively. The election had a surprise entrant of AAP which managed to secure 4 seats in the state.
For 2019, the exit poll results for these states are:
For 2019, the exit poll results for these states are:
Himachal Pradesh
- Times Now VMR: 3 seats to NDA and 1 seat to UPA.
- Today’s Chanakya: 3-4 seats to NDA and 0-1 seats to UPA.
- India Today Axis: 4 seats to NDA and none to UPA.
- News18-Ipsos: 4 seats to NDA and none to UPA.
Uttarakhand
- Times Now VMR: 4 seats to NDA and 1 seat to UPA.
- Today’s Chanakya: 4-5 seats to NDA and 0-1 seats to UPA.
- News18-Ipsos: 4-5 seats to NDA and 0-1 seats to UPA.
- India Today Axis: 5 seats to NDA and none to UPA.
Punjab
- Times Now VMR: 3 seats to NDA and 10 seats to UPA. AAP hasn’t gotten any seats in the poll.
- India Today Axis: 3-5 seats to BJP and 8-9 seats for Congress. The poll has even predicted 0-1 seats for the regional parties.
- News18-Ipsos: 2 seats to NDA, 10 seats to Congress and 1 seat to AAP.
- Republic C Voter: 2 seats to NDA and 11 seats to UPA. AAP hasn’t gotten any seats in the poll.
- Republic Jan Ki Baat: 4 seats to NDA and 9 seats to UPA. AAP hasn’t gotten any seats in the poll.
- Today’s Chanakya: 3-6 seats to NDA and 3-6 seats to UPA. AAP has been given 1-2 seats and regional parties have 0-1 seats.
Jammu and Kashmir
- Times Now VMR: 2 seats to NDA and 4 seat to UPA.
- India TV CNX: 2 seats to BJP, 1 seat to Congress and 3 seats to JKNC
- Republic C Voter: 3 seats to NDA and 3 seats to UPA.
- Republic Jan Ki Baat: 1-2 seats to NDA, 3-4 seats to UPA and 1 seat to PDP.
