The much-awaited Karnataka Elections are over. The BJP emerging as a single largest party in the South is a moment of triumph for the nationalists. As for the Congress Party, the year 2019 will be a fight with the odds stacked against them. On the other hand, the jubilant BJP, led by PM Modi, should not think of ‘resting for a while’ with any overconfidence while racing with the turtle. The BJP should be more cautious as Indian voters are more cynical than their counterparts in USA. It is essential to grasp the methodology adopted by the Cambridge Analytica which is now set to help the Congress in 2019 to regain its lost paradise. The BJP’s Karnataka campaign has witnessed some great sixers and fours, but it has equally witnessed lack of understanding while running between the wickets, and also some gaps in the fielding as well, when the opponents started batting. The BJP’s own psephology division needs urgent overhauling. If there is one ‘mistake’ that can be attributable to the present Karnataka situation, then it is clearly the wrong decision taken by the BJP to bypass the ‘old Mysore’ zone in its campaign strategy.
As the famous saying goes, ‘don’t look at the place where you fell, rather look at the cliff from where you fell’. So, correcting the mistakes committed in the past is the sure way to success.
The Psychographic Marketing having entered Indian scenario and with the rival, Congress Party seems to be determined to win 2019 by reaching millions of Indian voters through CA’s methodology. The BJP has to work out its strategy astutely without adhering totally on traditional methods as BJP enjoys the following advantages: 1) Rahul Gandhi’s denounced image 2) Narendra Modi’s proven charisma 3) BJP’s ideological outlooks and 4) Central Government’s 5 years stint and its great accomplishments. Of course, a promising Ayodhya verdict is likely to help BJP as well.
At the outset, when Cambridge Analytica has been ascribed and applauded for Donald Trump’s victory, the Indian pollsters and political parties should be wary of CA’s methodology which was adopted in 2016 US Presidential polls, to that extent of its ‘message texts’, but need to follow their method of ‘reach’ in which they were highly successful. But in doing so, the fact should be kept in mind is that there exists a huge contrast between the American Poll disposition and the present Indian setting.
The foremost being, Trump was a fresh face who challenged the incumbent Obama. Modi being the incumbent ruler and would be seeking re-election for a second term, cashing on his 5 yrs successful stint. Secondly, the Indian electoral battle turf is entirely overlaid with ‘religious, casteist and sectarian’ animosities. This has been assumed as ‘ideological clash’ of the main political parties in India.
Indians are distinct from the Americans in their respective socio, religious outlook. However, the reach of social media and messaging apps are exponential in both the countries. Last year, a report about ‘Facebook users’ has confirmed the fact that the number of users in India has surpassed the American users. While there were 240 million American FB users on record, in India the figure touched 241 million. Despite this in India ‘WhatsApp’ will soon surpass the facebook. With 1.5 billion monthly active users exchanging 60 billion messages on a single day, this prophecy appears to be a reality, going by the WhatsApp popularity that we are witnessing today.
BJP has successfully used ‘WhatsApp’ groups in the recent poll campaign in Karnataka. It must have sent a clear message for PM Modi in a crisp manner, as more house makers, women of all ages are increasingly hooked up to ‘WhatsApp’. Certainly, this section of Social Media users are getting the political messages too, amidst ‘health tips’ and ‘shopping’ ‘offers’ that hits the ‘WhatsApp’ in their smart phones every minute.
Yet, the majority of Indian voters are not social-media savvies, living in distant lands of India, away from the sounds of social media. Hence, BJPs’ strategy in 2019 is anywhere striking a fine balance between the virtual world and mundane habitats. One can reach them through DTDC i.e ‘door-to-door-campaign’. This is what BJP employed in Karnataka in the recent Assembly Elections, besides the aggressive Social Media dynamic campaign they are into.
Despite all these gains on the ideological front, BJP has to double check its effectiveness and improve a lot to shed many impediments associated with its core ideology too, before it enters the “Battleground- 2019”
The key to 2019: The South India saga
BJP has successfully hoisted the ‘Right’ flag in Karnataka in the recent Assembly elections. By winning 104 seats, it has set the Right doctrine going on, in the southern state. Yet, BJP has many tasks in hand for the 5 South Indian States, in order to strengthen the party at the national level, by firmly rooting it in the south.
1) Consolidating the ideological turf in Karnataka.
2) A similar consolidation of BJP allies in Tamil Nadu, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh.
3) Further strengthening the party in Kerala.
The big fact I wish to reveal here is the ‘South Indian’ factor and its associated sentiments, which the Party is overlooking or mistreating, unmindfully though. This factor is very crucial for making deep inroads into the ‘South’.
By the way, the hard fact of the matter is, South Indian’s are equally attached to RSS ideology very passionately since pre-Independence days. Most gratifying fact is that much of the later year’s RSS ideologues are from the south, particularly from the regions of Karnataka and Telugu speaking Andhra and Telangana. In this backdrop, BJP should regard this region’s aspirations, their affinity to their regional cultural pride and the linguistic sensibilities. Yet, this is unity-in-diversity, as the land, be it North or South, is Indic in nature and Vedic in practice.
At the same time, there is no denying the fact that much of the anti-Hindu hostility, desecration of Hindu sentiments, vilification of Hindu faiths were witnessed more in the regions of Kerala and Tamil Nadu. Open defilement of Shiv Linga, unrestricted beef-eating festivities, continuous acts of blasphemy of Hindus religious beliefs, abusive comments on poetess-saint ‘Andal’ by the evangelist Tamil Poet Vairamuthu, were all hard examples of hate’ being hurled by the enemies of Hindus.
In this distasteful atmosphere, Hindus in the southern states are now more assertive and united like never before. The enormous protest against Vairamuthu’s hatred is solid proof of Hindus mobilisation.
But it is unfortunate that on Social Media, many popular activists from the North, who are known Right-wing activists, were showing resentment towards their counterparts in the south expressing their ‘hurt’. Their ‘tone’ was more resolute and loaded with ‘hate, unmindful of its possible ‘backlash’ and the dangers of splitting the Right Wingers into North-South.
The senior think tank of RSS and BJP should be very wary of such social media activists and caution them not to indulge in such ‘war’ type cry against the Southern Hindus. I have no idea how far the ‘Think-tank’ in Delhi has assessed the changing equations in Andhra Pradesh as a result of BJP’s recent turning tables against Naidu. Every NCBN fan in AP, who were friends of BJP hitherto have also turned the tables quietly.
The party is now ready to chalk out a strategy to strike a balance in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.
The reasons behind the anti-Hindu sentiments flourishing in the ‘South’ are multiple. It is time for the think-tank to make an assessment here. The long presence of anti-Hindu Dravidian political parties and anti-upper caste social campaigns in Tamil Nadu, which were hugely subsidized by stingy leftists and Christian Missionaries contributed to the anti-Hindu sentiments that is prevalent in Tamil Nadu. Hence, the veterans in the party should be highly wary of such crisis authors on Social Media, and to see that it is contained before the north-south divide goes any further.
How can BJP over-come the perception of it being a party of North and Cow belt?
There exists a resentment of Hindus, Hinduism, Dravidian sentiment, Tamil language pride, in Tamil Nadu. In the mele, the Christian and Islamic outfits, supported by the Dravidian political parties have actively indulged in dividing the Hindus in these troubled waters. There is an open effort to cast Tamils as non-Hindus, Tamil culture as un-Hindu etc. The Keezhadi excavation by the ASI in the year 2013-14, in Sivaganga District in Tamil Nadu, which has brought forth evidence of an ancient but distinct Tamil inhabitant that had caused jubilations all across the state, followed by accusation as well, that the BJP Government at the centre is stalling the further excavations in the region with an intention to protect the hitherto held belief of India’s ultimate Harappan legacy.
Hence, it is utmost crucial to uphold, inspire, comfort and blend with the native feelings of Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Kerala, Andhra and Telangana.
The Psychographic profiling by which the Cambridge Analytica has succeeded in profiling the SM users into various segments basing on their personal judgment, drive, temperament, inclinations etc and accordingly send the fitting messages for maximum result. Hence, BJP can safely follow the CA methodology but to be mindful that such a message is blended with Hindutva nationalism to reach every household in India by the end of April 2019.