Expansion of the BJP happened from north to the north east. Amit Shah has also set his eyes onto the South. The party is expected to do well in Karnataka in next year’s assembly polls and hopes to kick start its ambitious South Indian expedition.
There are two states in the east which also have eluded the saffron party. One is Odisha led by Naveen Patnaik and the other is West Bengal which is ruled by TMC led Mamata Banarjee.
Politics of West Bengal has a certain resemblance to that of both Kerala and Odisha. At the grass root levels in Kerala, a lot of churning is happening in the form of fighting and bloodshed between the cadres of RSS and the Left. The same aspect is replicated and witnessed in West Bengal. The second aspect which Bengal is exhibiting is like Odisha where the recently held civic polls demonstrated a staggering change. Even when BJD and Naveen Patnaik were able to win, the BJP managed to come second and position itself as the principal opposition and challenger. The same attribute is observed in West Bengal. As the civic poll results were announced yesterday, TMC won the polls handsomely decimating its rivals. Nevertheless, BJP has emerged as the second best, trouncing the left to reposition itself as the principal opposition. This news is conspicuously absent from the mainstream media narrative.
TMC was able to romp home in seven municipal corporations and made a clean sweep in three. The opposition had no chances in any of the bodies to win. The left was reduced to a distant third place and the Congress party even failed to open its account.
The BJP managed a paltry figure of six in the West Bengal Civic Polls, but the significance of the elections was the party coming second. It categorically replaced the Left as the main opposition and this undoubtedly will be noticed by the TMC leadership.
The BJP was confined to second spot after it won four out of sixteen wards in Dhupguri Municipality and one ward each in Panskura and Buniadpur municipalities. Out of 148 wards in seven civic bodies, TMC won 140 wards, BJP won 6, Left Front won 1 and an Independent candidate won 1. The example of district Haldia can be taken under due consideration of the BJP making inroads.
In Haldia Municipal Corporation BJP bagged the second place with respect to vote share and displayed clear indications that votes have been shifted from the Left front in to the BJP kitty.
Even if TMC was busy in celebrations, in the hindsight it must have been concerned over the rise of BJP. This was a shot in the arm for the saffron party. There are four reasons as to why this development may be troubling for the TMC in future.
Firstly, left as the main opposition is very suitable for TMC and its growth. If BJP manages to take their place, its vote share and percentage will invariably increase. A dead Left front is more valuable than a resurgent BJP with an enthusiastic cadre. And this is expected to rise further. Another aspect of it is the fact that in case Mamata loses a proper hold over the state, her national ambitions of stitching a united opposition against PM Modi will certainly suffer. After Nitish Kumar entered NDA, Mamata Banarjee may bolster her chances of leading a hypothetical anti BJP front. But if her hold over Bengal is shaky, it will be difficult for her to manage her centre ambitions.
Secondly, the appeasement policies of TMC state govt has contributed to counter polarization. The ban on Durga Puja incident coupled with riots in 24 north Parganas district is a testimony to the fact. Communal clashes broke in Baduria, Naihati and Dhulagarh in the midst of a spat between CM Mamata Banarjee and governor K Tripathi. Mamata has been accused of appeasing the minorities and even has defamed the office of governor by calling it a BJP office. These incidents may leave scars on the majority of the population to affect the vote share of the ruling TMC and benefit the BJP.
West Bengal is a border state and the influx of Bangladeshis is sky high. Appeasement in tune of the same as they become a vote bank too has been a big problem.
Thirdly, the extent of the scams done by the ministers of the ruling TMC is slowly trickling in. Perhaps the larger impact of them may happen in the future elections and BJP may use them as a perfect weapon to demolish the TMC. First it was the Sharda Chit scam followed by another Ponzi scam in form of Rose valley scam which is worth an astronomical 60000 crores. The Rose Valley scam has implicated several TMC leaders and has even percolated to other states. The Narada sting has swallowed leaders such as TMC Vice President Mukul Roy. But the biggest scam of them all is involvement of Mamata’s nephew in procurement of a hundred-crore bungalow.
For an austere imaged politician, this scam pertaining to her family has sharpness to damage Mamata’s image. BJP will try its level best in subsequent West Bengal elections to make a spotlight of the same.
As more time passes, more scams might tumble out which will eventually help the BJP. According to a news channel, the possibility of the party breaking also cannot be ruled out. In a scenario where it does, BJP will find it easy to project itself as the only alternative between a dead Left and a damagingly fiery TMC.
Fourthly and most importantly, governance issues are many. Mamata Banarjee has been opposing policies like demonetization and GST. She recently decided not to follow the circular sent by the Modi Govt in accordance with celebrating Independence day in schools. This centre state relation will blossom only if both the centre and the state have a BJP led govt. Perhaps this attitude of Mamata can make people realize the fruits of voting for a better future. Federalism which the TMC chief harps upon has never been smooth and opposing each and every thing formulated by the BJP is detrimental to the interests of the state. The electorate may think about this aspect and vote accordingly in future and shift to the BJP.
A jubilant TMC thinks they are on the verge of invincibility after they defeated a robust Communist rule. If Bengalis can uproot more than thirty years of Left rule in the name of ‘paribortan’, why cannot they throw out an incompetent TMC too within a decade’s time. BJP coming second in these elections can provide and present the people of Bengal with an alternative and this seemingly is a big cause of worry for the TMC and Mamta Banerjee.
