As the results for Tamil Nadu Elections were announced, it became clear that the people have gone against the normal trend of not voting a party to power in consecutive elections. This has not happened since 1984 when MG Ramachandran was voted to power. Tamil Nadu is a unique state where the relationship between politics and the cine industry is far deeper than in any other state in India. Most of the exit polls predicted a DMK victory, but a Jayalalitha masterclass ensured that the DMK would lose the Tamil Nadu Elections again. We now take a look at the major players and alliances in the election and the core factors that led to the AIADMK’s victory.
Key Players:
All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) – The incumbent AIADMK contested under the leadership of J Jayalalitha or Amma as she is referred to. The AIADMK decided not to have any pre-poll alliances, enabling Jayalalitha to pick and choose her candidates without having to accommodate demands of allies.
Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)+ – This DMK + mainly consisted of the DMK and the Congress. M Karunanidhi or Kalaignar was declared as the CM candidate. Congress was offered 41 seats in the alliance.
People’s Welfare Front (PWF), also known as ‘Makkal Nala Kootani’ or ‘Vijayakanth Ani’ – This was projected as an alternative front to the two main Dravidian parties and had the DMDK (led by ‘Captain’ Vijayakanth), MDMK (led by Vaiko), along with the communist parties. Vijayakanth was declared as the CM candidate.
Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) – The PMK, under Anbumani Ramadoss, decided to contest alone without any allies.
BJP – BJP decided to contest the Tamil Nadu Elections alone under the leadership of state party Chief Tamilisai Sounderrajan.
Core factors on which Tamil Nadu Elections were fought:
1) Social Welfare Schemes and freebies – During her tenure from 2011 to 2016, the AIADMK started many social welfare schemes under the brand name ‘Amma’. This included Amma Canteens, Amma Water, Amma baby kit, Amma pharmacies, Amma seeds, Amma Cement. In addition to this, she also ensured freebies such as fans, laptops and mixers were given to people Below Poverty Line (BPL). With all these social welfare schemes, the AIADMK struck the right chord with the rural voters and Jayalalitha highlighted all these schemes in her election speeches. In her election manifesto, there were other freebies like free cellphones for ration-card holders, free laptops with internet connections for classes 10 and 12, maternity assistance of Rs 18,000, maternity leave of 9 months, waiver of farm loans, 50% subsidy to buy mopeds.
2) Alcohol Prohibition – This was the common theme for all the parties that contested the Tamil Nadu Elections. AIADMK announced that her government will implement prohibition only in a phased manner if voted to power. This was done to ensure that the party doesn’t put off the male voter and also to ensure there is no immediate loss of revenue. DMK, on the other hand, promised a total prohibition of liquor in its election manifesto. PMK also promised a complete prohibition if voted to power and claimed that it had alternate revenue sources to offset the revenue loss from complete prohibition. Although there was an accusation that Jayalalitha was promoting alcoholism, the phased prohibition approach worked in the AIADMK’s favour.
3) Disarray in the DMK – Since Karunanidhi is in his nineties, it was widely expected that his heir-apparent MK Stalin would be declared the CM candidate. But, the in-fighting within the DMK with multiple power centers like Kanimozhi and Karunanidhi’s estranged son Azhagiri forced the DMK to declare Karunanidhi himself as the chief ministerial candidate. This worked in favour of AIADMK, who now saw an immobile, wheelchair-bound Karunanidhi as the opponent-in-chief and not a road-hitting Stalin, who ran a very spirited campaign. AIADMK used this factor well to highlight the family rule within the DMK and lack of other capable leaders outside the family.
4) Corruption charges – Probably the biggest mistake made by the DMK was to ally with the Congress. The 2G scam, Aircel-Maxis scam and other scams came to the forefront again and reminded the people of the involvement of leaders like A Raja and Kanimozhi. It did not help that these leaders were part of the election campaign. Although Jayalalitha herself is accused of corruption and spent a few days in jail during her tenure as CM, that took a backseat in comparison with the various scams of the DMK-Congress combine. Congress won a dismal 8 seats out of the 41 that it contested.
5) Divided Opposition – Before the Tamil Nadu Elections, the DMK tried its best to woo all the opposition parties (except BJP), so that the anti-AIADMK votes do not get divided. But, it was not successful in doing so and only the Congress allied with the DMK. Vijayakanth, after keeping everyone in suspense till the very end, decided to go with the PWF. This led to a divided opposition and the anti-AIADMK vote got divided. Although the DMK increased its vote share and the number of seats considerably in comparison to 2011, this was mainly at the expense of DMDK, which drew a blank. ‘Captain Vijayakanth’ was the butt of jokes in the social media and he didn’t help his cause either by giving rather funny interviews to NDTV and looking perennially in an inebriated state during the election campaign. It comes as no surprise that he himself was at the third position in his constituency Ulundurpettai.
6) Chennai floods – The Chennai floods in December 2015 did manage to create a dent in Brand Amma. The state machinery that should have kicked into action immediately in rescuing and providing relief to people was missing in action. While thousands of people were trying to get one meal a day and struggling to rebuild their lives, many men who were allegedly AIADMK volunteers were busy sticking Amma posters on relief supplies that were being distributed. This was used by the DMK to convince the Chennai voter against the AIADMK. This worked to some extent and AIADMK’s performance in Chennai was not as good as last time.
Conclusion
Before the next assembly elections, Karunanidhi would be in the late nineties and it is highly unlikely that he would be the CM candidate then. The DMK is in complete disarray with a lot of in-fighting and MK Stalin would not find it easy to unite all these factions and get full support to lead the party. Congress is not a force in Tamil Nadu anymore. The smaller parties like DMDK, PMK and MDMK do not seem to be in a position to challenge the two major Dravidian parties. The BJP also drew a blank and could not capitalize on the popularity of PM Modi. Having said this, the BJP supporter would be pleased that the AIADMK won the Tamil Nadu Elections and not the DMK-Congress combine. At this moment, Jayalalitha seems to have no major challenge to her supremacy and health-permitting, she should be able to further consolidate her position as the undisputed leader of TN.
It has also been proven that the freebie culture in Tamil Nadu is here to stay and there is no better method to woo the Tamil Nadu voter. With loads of bribe money and alcohol distributed to the voters by most of the political parties during election time, the Election Commission would have its job cut out in all future elections in the state.
Image Courtesy: http://www.truetamil.in/election/tamilnadu-mlas-2016.php