Bihari electorate is complicated. It is not an easy thing to perform a pre-elections or post-elections survey or even an exit poll and comfortably reach to a conclusion. Bihar Elections 2015 is probably the most closely contested elections in recent times. It is not going to be a cakewalk for Modi to upturn Nitish Kumar’s government who in spite of being 2 terms old suffers no anti-incumbency at all. And it will be equally difficult for Nitish Kumar to hold on to his throne especially when BJP has invested all its power in winning the Bihar elections.
There are a number of reasons because of which Nitish Kumar the chief Minister of Bihar can lose his chair. Based on my interaction with voters in Patna, my telephonic conversations with friends and relatives in Bihar, Many ardent supporters of Nitish Kumar voted for the NDA precisely because of his coalition with Lalu Prasad Yadav whose jungle Raj stories are still afresh in people’s minds. Secondly Congress is bound to underperform. The bookies in Bihar are even betting over a complete rout of the Congress Party in Bihar. 41 seats to Congress was always a bad decision by the Mahagathbandhan and the fact that Congress has to fight with BJP on 28 of those seats makes it tougher for them. Jitan Ram Manjhi although overrated and over celebrated can cut a substantial number of votes from seats where EBCs are in large number. However he is not going to be a major factor. Also the supporters of RJD and JDU belong to exactly opposite caste profiles. So are Kurmis going to vote for Yadav candidates and are Yadavs going to vote for Kurmis will remain a big question mark. In any case, this is not going to be a hundred percent success formula and NDA undoubtedly will get the benefit of doubt.
But the biggest factor working in favor of the Mahagathbandhan is Nitish Kumar himself and the fact that voters are willing to give him a third term speaks volumes about his popularity as a CM(credit must be given where It is due).
There are a number of reasons why NDA cannot win the Bihar Elections. First and foremost will be the absence of a credible face in Bihar BJP. Sushil Kumar Modi the tallest BJP leader in Bihar played Yes Man to Nitish Kumar in both the terms of the JDU-BJP Government in Bihar. The allies although managed smartly by Amit Shah are both overrated and over celebrated like I mentioned earlier. Jitan Ram Manjhi and Upendra Kushwaha are not going to be a factor at all. Ram Vilas Paswan can bag some seats for sure because of his party’s long association with Paswans and other backward communities. One trend that I observed was that the votes were going to either BJP or the JDU. The allies will not play a big role in Bihar elections. The NDA allies share 80 seats between them and that is a huge number by any yardsticks. If BJP loses, Bhagwat will have to share the blame as well. His anti-reservation remark was uncalled for and it was a complete Hara Kiri in the time of Bihar elections. Also I believe BJP’s package politics trump card was thrown very early in the game, it should have been used in the later stage of the game.
But the biggest factor working in favor of the NDA is Narendra Modi himself. His rallies had record crowd chanting his name all through his speech. Modi is an electrifying leader and has an inspiring presence and I am sure that will reflect in the results too.
So what now?
I still maintain that exit polls can be misleading in spite of being the most technical way of gauging the public mood. Bihar Exit Polls have shown a mixed trend. While 2 exit polls hint at a hung assembly, 2 give a clear majority to JDU+ while “Today’s Chanakya” the wonder kid of poll surveys has predicted a landslide victory for the NDA.
So basically like an Alfred Hitchcock movie, the suspense of Bihar elections will continue till last scene. Wait till Sunday, the 8th day of November.
Feature Image Courtesy: www.india.com
