Power struggles and tightly controlled successions have long defined North Korea’s ruling dynasty. Leadership in Pyongyang has passed from father to son, from Kim Il-sung to Kim Jong-il, and then to Kim Jong-un, often amid secrecy, elite maneuvering and ruthless purges.
Kim Jong-un assumed power in 2011, at the time, he was believed to be in his late 20s, making him one of the world’s youngest heads of state at the time. Now, speculation is growing that history could repeat itself, perhaps even earlier than expected. Reports suggest Kim Jong-un may be preparing his 13-year-old daughter, Kim Ju-ae, to inherit power, potentially sidelining his influential sister, Kim Yo-jong.
As seen in the HBO series Succession, which centred on the internal battles of the Royal dynasty, a comparable drama now appears to be taking shape in real life in North Korea.
Speculation intensified after South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) said last week that a fourth generation of the Kim family dynasty may be in the making. Is North Korea heading toward a Kim vs Kim power struggle?
Kim Ju-Ae: A Likely Heir in the Making
South Korea’s intelligence community and lawmakers say Ju Ae’s rapidly expanding public role has gone beyond symbolism, triggering debate over whether the Kim dynasty is preparing its first female successor.
The theory gained traction after a closed-door briefing by South Korea’s National Intelligence Service. Lawmakers later told reporters that the agency believes Kim Jong Un has “entered the stage of nominating her as successor.”
It remains uncertain whether her growing public presence marks the start of a carefully managed succession plan, as there is little historical precedent to rely on since no child of the Kim family has ever been introduced to the public at such a young age, making the situation highly unusual.
The NIS informed lawmakers that Kim Ju-ae, believed to be around 13 years old, is moving closer to being formally designated as heir. The timing is notable as North Korea is preparing for its biggest political conference later this month, where Kim Jong-un is expected to outline major policy goals and further consolidate his authority.
According to the NIS, the teenager has increasingly taken on a symbolic and political role consistent with succession training. She has appeared repeatedly at key military events and has been prominently positioned beside her father during on-site inspections.
Kim Ju-ae remained out of public view until 2022, when she made her first appearance at the launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). Photographs from the event showed Kim Jong-un holding the hand of a young girl with bangs and a long ponytail, standing before a towering missile.
Since then, her public profile has grown. Last September, she made her first foreign trip, accompanying her father to Beijing for a military parade marking Japan’s defeat in World War II.
The NIS also pointed to her visit in January to Kumsusan Palace of the Sun — a powerful symbol of hereditary succession — and her public comments on policy initiatives as signs that she may already have been designated successor.
Kim Yo-Jong: The Sister and Aunt
Kim Ju-ae could however encounter a serious challenge in her path to power from her aunt, Kim Yo-jong, according to Rah Jong-yil, former South Korean ambassador to the UK and a former deputy director of Seoul’s intelligence service.
The 38-year-old, often described as “the most dangerous woman in the world,” is the younger sister of North Korea’s current leader, Kim Jong-un. Since 2020, she has effectively served as the regime’s second-in-command in the isolated state.
In recent years, Kim Yo-jong has issued strong threats against South Korea, including warnings of nuclear action. She once described South Korea’s defence minister as “a senseless and scum-like guy” and said the country would face “a miserable fate little short of total destruction and ruin.”
She also referred to former US President Joe Biden as an “old man with no future” after Washington increased support for Seoul. Her authority was also noted during a 2018 inter-Korean summit in Pyongyang, when she appeared firmly in control as a South Korean delegation visited.
According to Rah Jong-yil, Kim Yo-jong enjoys strong political and military backing within the Workers’ Party of Korea and could pose a real obstacle to her niece’s rise.
“It depends on the timing, but I believe if Kim Yo-jong believed that she had a chance of becoming the top leader, then she would take it,” Jong-yil told The Telegraph.
“For her, there are no reasons to refrain from putting into effect her own political project,” he said, adding that a power struggle “is probable”.
A report published last December by 38 North, a website run by the Washington DC-based Stimson Centre think tank, also warned that “there is also a high likelihood of a power struggle emerging between Kim Jong Un and his potential successor candidates”.
“In the immediate term, more politically established candidates, like Kim Yo-jong, are more likely to succeed in the event of Kim Jong-un’s sudden death or serious illness”, the report stated.
It added that other potential heirs — including Kim Ju-ae or her siblings, believed to be two boys — “are still too young and unestablished to realistically be considered for succession in the coming five to 15 years”.
A History of Ruthless Power Struggles
A succession battle in North Korea would not be unprecedented and history suggests it may not be peaceful. Two years after taking power in 2011, Kim Jong-un had his uncle and mentor, Jang Song-thaek, arrested on charges of committing “anti-party, counter-revolutionary, factional acts”. On December 12, 2013, Jang was executed by firing squad.
In February 2017, Kim’s half-brother, Kim Jong-nam, who had once been viewed as a possible future leader, was assassinated at Kuala Lumpur International Airport. VX nerve agent was smeared on his face.
Two women–Siti Aisyah from Indonesia and Doan Thi Huong from Vietnam were arrested and charged, though neither was North Korean. They later said they believed they were participating in a prank for a Japanese YouTube show, having been unknowingly recruited by North Korean agents.
But many believe that it was Kim Jong-un who got his half-brother killed, as he was a potential rival to his rule. A lot can happen between now and the moment of succession. In fact, it’s unknown when Kim Jong-un will actually hand over power, he’s just 42 years of age, and could continue to rule just like his father, Kim Jong-il, did until the age of 70.
