The Syrian rebel forces, overtly and covertly backed by US and also include terror groups, have taken the vital city of Hama in central Syria, after another strong offensive. This is the latest victory for the rebels since they launched their powerful charge, eight days ago. After the fall of Aleppo this loss comes as a major blow to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad who has been attempting to retain control over the country.

The Syrian army said that rebel forces had entered Hama on Thursday after intense fighting, prompting its units to withdraw from the city. The army said in a statement that it was redeploying its forces “to preserve civilian lives and prevent urban combat” after intense clashes. While Abu Mohammed al-Julani, the leader of the most powerful rebel armed group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a former al-Qaeda affiliate, declared that the rebel forces now had full control over Hama.

Earlier, the HTS terrorists and their allies took over Hama central prison and released dreaded inmates amid fierce battles, while the Syrian military claimed that it had redeployed troops outside the city. Hama is home to one million people and is 110km (70 miles) south of Aleppo, which fell to the rebels after they launched a surprise offensive from their stronghold in the north-west. With these moves the rebels now boast control over Syria’s second largest city Aleppo and now the fourth largest city, Hama.

President Bashar Al Assad seems to be in a dire predicament as if the offensive continues the capital city of Damascus is looking next on the radar for the rebel forces. Assad had so far managed to keep control over the country with help of Russia and Iran with both giving overt and covert aid to the Assad government. Unfortunately for the Syrian President, this time both his crucial allies are embroiled in their own complicated clashes.

While Russia has been at war with Ukraine since 2022, its aid to Syria and its other allies has thinned considerably. On the other hand Iran has been involved in massive clashes with Israel and has lost many crucial leaders. Its proxies Hamas and Hezbollah are being decimated by the Israeli Defence Forces. It is difficult to see how Assad will manage to take on the rebels who are now threatening his government’s very survival.

Rebel Charge of 2024

The Syrian civil war is an ongoing multi-sided conflict in Syria involving various state-sponsored and non-state actors. The war has raged for over a decade as more than half a million people have been killed since 2011. In March 2011, unrest against Bashar al-Assad triggered large-scale protests across Syria, as part of the wider Arab Spring protests in the region. After months of crackdown by the government’s security apparatus, various armed rebel groups such as the Free Syrian Army began forming across the country, marking the beginning of the Syrian insurgency. By mid-2012, the insurgency had escalated into a full-blown civil war.

On 27 November 2024, the Syrian opposition groups led by Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) launched an offensive on the pro-government forces in northwestern Syria. This marked the first major offensive by any faction in the conflict since March 2020. The rebel forces backed by other international players conducted a series of reinvigorated offensive military operations against the Assad government in 2024.

From December 2024 rebel groups led by the HTS pushed south from areas under their control in northwest Syria, capturing Aleppo over the weekend before reaching a strategic hill just north of Hama on Tuesday and advancing towards the city’s east and west flanks. The rapid collapse of the Syrian government’s control in the north appears to reveal a shift in the balance of power since the Islamist terror group Hezbollah suffered heavy destruction at the hands of Israel. Hezbollah had been a major ally for Assad and had been instrumental in maintaining his control over the border regions.

The rebels managed to break through the government’s defensive lines north of Hama following several days of heavy fighting. The Syrian military had sent reinforcements to the city after the fall of Aleppo. But despite support from Russian air strikes and Iran-backed militia fighters, troops were unable to prevent Hama being overrun by December 5.

Hama is a critical city for the rebels as it gives them control over two major towns with sizeable minority religious communities; Muhrada, which is home to many Christians, and Salamiya, where there are many Ismaili Muslims. The Hama province also borders the coastal region of Latakia, a main base of popular support for al-Assad. Prior to December 5, Hama had stayed in government hands throughout the long lasting civil war.

The capture of Hama is a major coup for the rebel forces as it is also considered a stronghold of armed, Islamist movement against the Baath party of Bashar al-Assad and his father. The capture of Hama would also likely open up a pathway to Homs which is the main central city and functions as a crossroads connecting Syria’s most populous regions. The city is also considered a gateway to the capital, Damascus.

Aftermath

Due to the ongoing Syrian civil war, an estimated 280,000 people have been displaced, most of them women and children, and some civilians are trapped in front-line areas unable to reach safer locations. In Aleppo, home to two million people, some public services and critical facilities – including hospitals, bakeries, power stations, water, internet and telecommunications – are meanwhile disrupted or non-functional because of shortages of supplies and personnel.

Meanwhile Syrian President Assad has vowed to crush the rebels and has accused Western powers of trying to redraw the map of the region. Russia and Iran have offered their “unconditional support” to Assad in the ongoing crisis. In support Russian warplanes have intensified their strikes on rebel-held areas in recent days, while Iran-backed militias have sent fighters to reinforce the government’s defensive lines.

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Turkey, which supports the Syrian opposition but has denied reports that it is involved in the HTS-led offensive, has urged Assad to engage in a political process with the opposition to bring an end to Syria’s 13-year civil war. Turkish-backed rebel factions have meanwhile capitalised on the government’s retreat in the north by launching a separate offensive on a pocket of territory near Aleppo that was controlled by a Kurdish-led militia alliance, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Turkey, which has a large restive Kurdish minority, considers the Kurds in Syria as a threat.

Now Iran is looking to send missiles and drones to Syria and increase the number of its military advisers there to support President Bashar al-Assad in his battle against rebels. Tehran is also looking to provide intelligence and satellite support to Syria as well as to deploy forces to come to the aid of their ally. Russia has also assured that it is assessing the situation in Syria and is in constant contact with the Syrian authorities, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Thursday. The extent of Russian assistance to Damascus will depend on this assessment, Peskov added.

Although Assad’s allies have assured him of their assistance, it will prove extremely difficult for them to be fully committed towards the conflict in Syria, as they are themselves stuck in long protracted clashes engulfing their own neighborhoods. The rebels are meanwhile charging with renewed fervor, with Hezbollah no longer in their way and the Russians and Iranian preoccupied, they find a pathway to Damascus on the horizon. If the ground situation does not change anytime soon, Bashar Al-Assad could be counting down on the days of his reign.