For the first time, the role of the powerful and influential Indian diaspora in the U.S. presidential elections in 2024 is being recognized by the political establishment.
A survey of this community, which is 5.2 million strong today, has become the cynosure of the two political formations by saying though there is an upward tilt towards Republicans, the majority of the community may vote Democrat in 2024.
Sixty-one percent of Indian Americans want to vote for Democratic Party’s Kamala Harris in the November 5 U.S. presidential election. In comparison, 32 percent may vote for Republican candidate, Donald Trump. These are the findings of the Indian American Attitudes Survey (IAAS) 2024.
A majority of Indian Americans “remain solidly behind the Democratic Party” while the survey notes there has been a modest shift in the community’s preferences, with a greater share of respondents willing to vote for Trump since the last election in 2020.
Indian Americans are now the second-largest immigrant group in the United States and have emerged as an important political actor thanks to the community’s rapid demographic growth, the close margins in modern presidential elections, and the diaspora’s remarkable professional success.
According to IAAS, Indian Americans remain committed to the Democratic Party, but their attachment has declined. Forty-seven percent of respondents identify as Democrats, down from 56 percent in 2020. The share of Republican identifiers has held steady while the percentage of independents has grown.
There is a new, striking gender gap in voting preferences. Sixty-seven percent of Indian American women intend to vote for Harris while 53 percent of men, a significantly smaller share, say they plan to vote for Harris. Twenty-two percent of women intend to vote for Trump while a significantly larger share of men, 39 percent, plan to cast their ballots for him.
The survey says in terms of age group, in the cohort above the age of 40, more than 70 percent of women and 60 percent of men plan to vote for Harris. However, in the cohort under 40, 60 percent of women say they will vote for Harris, but men say they will vote for Harris and Trump in roughly equal proportions.
Indian Americans hold lukewarm views toward prominent Indian American Republicans. Respondents rate Indian American Republicans such as Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Usha Vance (the wife of Republican vice presidential nominee JD Vance) unfavorably. However, there is evidence of asymmetric polarization: Democrats rate prominent Republicans worse than Republicans assess leading Democrats.
Among national issues Indian Americans focus on, abortion has emerged as a top-tier policy issue, especially for Democrats and women. Abortion and reproductive rights are a highly salient issue for Indian Americans this election year, ranking as their second-most-important policy concern (after inflation/prices and tied with the economy and jobs). Democrats and women are especially motivated by abortion this election cycle.
The Republican disadvantage with Indian Americans is rooted in policy. Although Indian Americans hold a dim view of many prominent Republican leaders, the party’s disadvantage with Indian Americans goes beyond personalities. The data suggest that the Republican Party is out of sync with multiple policy positions held by members of the community. When Democrats are asked why they do not identify as Republicans, they cite the latter’s intolerance of minorities, its stance on abortion, and ties to Christian evangelists.
The Indian American community has clearly become a focal point for both political parties. Representing the second-largest immigrant group in the U.S., the Indian American community has a unique demographic profile, marked by a rapid growth rate and elevated socioeconomic status.
Between 2010 and 2020, the Indian American population grew by 50 percent, and over 70 percent of those born abroad entered the U.S. after the year 2000. The IAAS, conducted from September 18 to October 15, 2024, sheds light on how this evolving community intends to vote, its political affiliations, and the policy issues that matter most.
IAAS says that 60 percent of registered Indian American voters support Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, while 31 percent are inclined to vote for Donald Trump, the Republican candidate. This figure marks a slight increase in Republican support from the 2020 election when Trump garnered only 22 percent. For context, this election is unique for Indian Americans, as Harris’s candidacy represents a historic moment, with a person of Indian heritage competing for the highest office in the land.
Among the younger generation, younger men, especially those born in the U.S., are more likely to favor Trump, with 48 percent supporting him in contrast to 44 percent for Harris. By comparison, 72 percent of women and 63 percent of men over 40 support Harris, suggesting a divergence that is driven largely by generational and gender-based differences within the community.
A survey of Asian Americans in April and May this year had said that the Democrats’ traditional advantage with Asian American voters was fading. This decline was visible across all national origin groups except for Vietnamese Americans. Notably, the drop in support for President Joe Biden in that survey was greatest among Indian Americans: Whereas 65 percent of registered Indian American voters reported supporting Biden in 2020, that share plummeted to 46 percent in July 2024. Of course, Biden withdrew from the presidential race in July 2024, and Harris became the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee.
More recent surveys on Asian Americans suggest that Harris has recovered the Democrats’ lost ground since becoming the nominee. According to the current 2024 IAAS survey, 60 percent of Indian American citizens plan to vote for Harris compared to 31 percent for Trump. Five percent plan to vote for a third-party candidate, while 4 percent do not intend to vote at all in the election.
Although the Republican Party has made inroads in the Indian American community, most Indian Americans view the current edition of the Republican Party as out of step with their political preferences and policy priorities. Thus, it appears as if the community’s orientation toward the Democratic Party is structural and is likely to persist until and unless the parties themselves experience a makeover.
Indian Americans are considered “high propensity” voters, with “96 percent of registered voters indicating they will cast ballots in this election”. Given the community’s educational attainment and median household income of US$153,000—more than twice the national average—their political preferences are highly sought after by both parties.
Survey data show that economic issues, especially inflation, resonate strongly within the community. The most pressing concerns include inflation and jobs, with 17 percent of respondents listing inflation as their top concern, followed by employment opportunities.
Abortion rights are also a priority, particularly among Democrats, with 13 percent of respondents ranking it as a top issue. Climate change, healthcare, and U.S.-India relations also rank highly.
Indian Americans place significant importance on U.S.-India relations, a sentiment that aligns with the Democratic Party’s focus on international diplomacy. However, Republican candidates, including Trump, are increasingly making inroads on this issue by emphasizing bilateral ties, a notable shift from previous years.
The nomination of Kamala Harris as the Democratic presidential candidate has “undoubtedly bolstered enthusiasm among Indian American voters”. Harris’s heritage and her historical candidacy as the first woman of Indian descent on a major U.S. party’s presidential ticket have garnered attention and support.
Survey results show that 51 percent of respondents feel more motivated to vote because of Harris’s nomination, with only 12 percent indicating a decrease in enthusiasm. This support is particularly strong among older and immigrant Indian Americans, who view Harris as an inspirational figure that embodies both cultural heritage and American identity.
Despite this support, some Indian Americans have mixed feelings about Harris’s candidacy, primarily among younger and U.S.-born voters “who may prioritize policy alignment over shared ethnicity”. When asked why they support Harris, respondents cited her liberal stance and her potential to govern as a progressive, rather than focusing solely on her heritage.
As a demographic that bridges deep-rooted cultural heritage with high levels of civic participation, Indian Americans are reshaping U.S. political dynamics. Though the Democratic Party maintains strong support, especially among women and immigrants, the Republican Party’s growing appeal among younger, U.S.-born men signals a shift that could influence the future political landscape.
The IAAS findings highlight that “appeal of Republican economic policies and a focus on national security resonate with segments of Indian American voters, particularly men under 40”.