A new turn in Jharkhand’s politics came on July 13 when the state’s legislator Sarayu Rai met with Bihar’s Chief Minister Nitish Kumar in Patna. The purpose of this meeting was to explore the possibilities of an alliance with the Janata Dal United (JDU) for the upcoming 2024 Jharkhand Assembly elections. Following this meeting, Rai made a positive announcement. He wrote on Twitter, ‘Consensus has been reached to fight together in the Jharkhand Assembly elections. JDU leadership will soon decide on the remaining electoral formalities.’
Sarayu Rai’s Political Journey
Sarayu Rai was a prominent leader of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). He was part of the state cabinet during the tenure of former Chief Minister Raghubar Das in Jharkhand, but differences emerged between them. Consequently, Rai left the BJP and defeated the incumbent Chief Minister Das in the 2019 Assembly elections by changing his constituency. Currently, Rai is the president of the Bharatiya Janata Morcha (BJM) and is striving to establish his party in the upcoming elections. However, BJM’s base is weak, and Rai remains its prominent face.
Need for Alliance
Rai’s party aims to contest on 30 seats in the upcoming elections, requiring allies and candidates. Rai recently met with Kunal Sarangi, who left BJP after not receiving a ticket from the Jamshedpur Lok Sabha constituency. Sarangi now wishes to contest from Baharagora constituency, and Rai has proposed this opportunity to him.
Alignment with Hemant Soren
Rai also met with Chief Minister Hemant Soren and his wife Kalpana Soren. In 2019, Rai had supported the Soren government from outside but later withdrew support due to disagreements with Minister Bannu Gupta. Recently, Rai has adopted a neutral stance, indicating a possibility of aligning with both sides in the upcoming elections.
Challenges for BJP
Rai’s meetings have posed new challenges for BJP’s electoral strategist Shivraj Singh Chouhan. Additionally, BJP plans to expand beyond Bihar also present a new issue for the party. Since becoming Jharkhand, JDU has struggled to establish its identity in the state’s politics. In 2005, when Nitish Kumar emerged as a development figure, the party had six legislators. However, this number reduced to two in the 2009 elections, and the party came to zero in the 2014 and 2019 elections.
JDU’s Electoral Strategy
In the 2024 elections, JDU is banking on two vote banks – Kurmi and Bihari – in Jharkhand’s politics. “Bihari” is a new categorization included in Jharkhand’s politics, where efforts are being made to depict Jharkhand as the land of tribals. It is estimated that Bihari and Kurmi together constitute 29-32% of the state’s population. However, currently, JDU’s focus is more on Bihari votes (7-10%) as Kurmi voters are divided between All Jharkhand Students Union Party (AJSUP) and Jharkhand Loktantrik Krantikari Morcha (JLKM).
BJP’s Situation
BJP, which is trying to regain Jharkhand from Soren and his team, is facing this new crisis. On one hand, BJP State President Babulal Marandi needs to maintain his grip against Rai, while on the other hand, the party needs the support of Nitish Kumar in the center and Bihar. For this, BJP will have to accept Kumar’s decision to include Rai in the alliance.
If BJP takes this step, it will have to finalize a new seat-sharing plan with JDU and Rai. Such an arrangement could increase dissatisfaction among party workers, as seen during the defeat of Sita Soren from JMM in the 2024 general elections.
Conclusion
BJP is currently in a difficult situation. If it accepts Rai and Kumar’s demands, it could face a problem; if not, this alliance could open a third front in Jharkhand politics. The good news for BJP is that it still has time. Until BJP and JDU strengthen their base, BJP can strengthen its position to prevent the rise of a third front in Jharkhand politics.
These events in Jharkhand’s politics could bring several interesting turns in the coming days. Now, it remains to be seen which political scenario ultimately influences the voters.
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