The preparations for 2024 Lok Sabha elections are catching momentum. Opposition leaders are trying to unite under one umbrella called Mahagathbandhan. The very fact that they are trying to unite reeks of division between them. Yes, even though it is an umbrella term, the word Maha and Gathbandhan clearly indicate that there are factions in it. The division built into the system is the reason why the initiative is slated to be a failure.
Lalu, Nitish meet Sonia
Recently, Lalu Yadav and his publicly declared younger brother Nitish Kumar met Congress President Sonia Gandhi. The motive was to get more support by taking Congress on board for their Mahagathbandhan initiative.
Currently, Congress and various regional parties are at loggerheads. Lalu and Nitish want the differences to end forever, and if not until the 2024 General elections. The single-minded motive is to keep BJP out of power by stopping the Modi-Shah juggernaut.
But the meeting did not yield any positive result. It turned out that both these leaders did not even get a fair hearing at Madam Sonia’s Justice department. Possibly, she along with Congress High Command were too busy in handling problems arising in Rajasthan. Sonia Gandhi just postponed any such talks.
After the meeting, Lalu Yadav told reporters, “We have to bring all opposition parties together to defeat the BJP. The Congress is in the process of electing its new president and Sonia Gandhi told us we will meet again after the election.”
Targeting UP and Bihar
Both these leaders are on a mission to get as many parties on board as possible for their Mahagathbandhan initiative. Through this initiative, they are trying to stay relevant for their voters in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Both these states contribute 120 seats out of 543 Lok Sabha seats.
40 seats out of 120 are from Bihar. In the 2019 elections, BJP and Nitish Kumar had contested as alliance partners. Both parties grabbed a total 33 seats out of which 17 seats were taken by BJP while JDU could only win 16 seats. LJP, their 3rd alliance partner, won 6 seats, while RJD returned with zero Lok Sabha MPs in its kitty.
Also read: So, this is the final deal between RJD and JDU for Mahagathbandhan 2.0
Congress is a weak link in Bihar
Now that JDU is with RJD, both are trying to consolidate their position in the state. Both are trying to take Congress as a cog in a wheel. Their expectation is that old equation of Muslim Yadav combo will yield positive results.
Nitish is also banking on his new formula of social engineering by trying to get Kurmis and Bhumihars on his side. For them the roadblock is vote-katwa units like Congress and LJP. By giving a few seats to Congress, they are trying to avoid such situations.
But it won’t solve the problem. Congress does not have much acceptability in Bihar and they will only get anything in between 5 to 10 seats to contest for. Here again, stay certain that BJP will end up with most seats contested by Congress. It’s a nationwide trend that wherever both national level parties have collided, BJP has always turned out to be victorious.
Also read: With eye on 2024, the NCP is challenging Congress over leadership of the Mahagathbandhan
Nitish is a weak link
Even the traditional Yadav-Kurmi rivalry is also a force to reckon with in this election. Yadavs do not have much liking for Nitish since he was the one who ended their one and half decade long domination. Given the fact that Nitish Kumar is the chief minister, JDU won’t contest on anything less than 15 seats.
It is here that Yadav votes will prove to be counterproductive for their gathbandhan. The way Yadavs have been galvanising in favour of Yogi Adityanath, trickle-down effect is being seen in Bihar as well. Nitish’s inclusion is certain to push Yadav’s votes in BJP favour.
Tackling RJD
But RJD is a force to reckon with in this election. Apparently, in 2020 assembly elections, it grabbed 75 seats, highest in number. If the coalition is made, it is expected to contest on 15-20 seats. This is the only challenge for the BJP to conquer.
Lalu has the trust of nearly 20 per cent of Bihar, which is to say that he enjoys a good reputation among Muslim community. Similarly, a lot of Yadavs have also not been persuaded out of their loyalty towards Lalu.
For BJP, finding a solution to the RJD problem is complex. In case of Muslim vote bank, infighting among all 3 members of Mahagathbandhan to contest on Muslim majority seats can turn out to be positive for BJP. An unintentional and unexpected outside support could arrive in the form of vote-katwa named as Owaisi’s AIMIM. Similarly, increasing number of Yadavs in the top hierarchy of Bihar BJP is also expected to bring a substantial chunk of Yadav votes to BJP.
Other than aforementioned identity groups, most others mainly support PM Modi, if not BJP. Lok Sabha elections being fought in the name of PM Modi is expected to bring nearly 30 seats for the BJP led coalition, in case they decide to go for it.
Also read: In Bihar Assembly, Nitish Kumar and Lalu have already created a Mahagathbandhan
OBCs not in favour of Mahagathbandhans in UP
Talking about Uttar Pradesh, it won’t be wrong to state that UP politics revolves around Yogi Adityanath and by extension BJP. To counter his rise, Akhilesh Yadav is looking to bank on his attempt to unify OBCs and Dalits.
In the OBC category, non-Yadavs are disgruntled with Akhilesh and SP. It is next to impossible for either the Congress or SP to win their trust. Even the talks of Nitish Kumar contesting from UP won’t be able to deviate non-Yadavs OBC votes, since Nitish is not a popular leader outside Bihar. On the other hand, the Yadav vote bank is shifting towards BJP, which is obviously not good news for Akhilesh.
Dalits in favour of BJP in UP
Lacking support from OBCs, the second option for Akhilesh is to look towards Dalits. It is here that the absence of Mayawati in their proposed coalition will hit them hard. Maywati is still a credible leader among Dalits. In her absence, Dalit votes are destined to shift towards BJP on the back of welfare schemes which CM Yogi and PM Modi has brought to their homes.
To put it simply, the Mahagathbandhan equation will yield more than 62 seats for BJP in UP. Of Course, the Modi and Yogi wave will play an enabling role.
Karnataka is conquered
After UP and Bihar, the next big hub where parties can combine to create Mahagathbandhan is South India. The equation is workable only in 2 states, namely Karnataka and Telangana. Out of these 3, only Karnataka is the state that can work as a strong base for BJP. To contest BJP onslaught, JD(S) and Congress are expected to come together, just like they did in 2019.
The state of affairs in both parties have only worsened after that. This is the reason why Operation Lotus was successful in Karnataka and S R Bommai from BJP is now Chief Minister of state.
BJP’s rise in Telangana
The situation is not much better in nearby Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. In Telangana, KCR is fighting for his existence. His desperation can be seen in the way he is trying to mingle with Nitish Kumar. Also, the man looks set to launch a national party. Currently, the problem with KCR is that his Mahagathbandhan partner in Telangana will only be Congress.
The party is already unpopular there and to add insult to injury, BJP is taking South Indian film stars on its side. Only doom awaits the Mahagathbandhan equations in Telangana. Moreover, if rumours of Chandrababu Naidu re-joining NDA is true, then it is next to impossible to stop BJP from getting 10 out of 17 Lok Sabha seats, which is their goal for the state.
One dimensional fight in other South Indian states
In other South Indian states like Andhra, Kerala and Tamil Nadu, no new equation is expected to churn out. YSRCP and left are expected to get proverbial walkovers in Andhra and Kerala respectively. On the other hand, BJP will be fighting with AIADMK while Congress will join hands with DMK.
Mamata, Left and Congress in North East
Now, let’s shift our attention to states totally or partially part of the North Eastern section of India. Though, BJP has been on advent in the region, it is also true that they have not demolished their enemies.
In Bengal, there are high chances of Mamata Banerjee joining hands with left parties. Mamata has not been anti-left, as she knows TMC needs left’s recklessness to secure any chance of beating BJP.
The presence of Congress in the proposed Mahagathbandhan is only an added advantage. All 3 parties can combine together to contest elections in Tripura and West Bengal. And why should they not? The Left and Congress are at the verge of decimation in Tripura, while Mamata is facing the same threat perception in West Bengal.
But the problem with both these states, along with other states that part of 7 sisters, is that BJP has made a strong foothold. People of the region know that it is only because of BJP and PM Modi that perception about them has changed in India. Infrastructure projects pushed by the BJP in the region is the biggest enabler of it.
Also read: With Sonia at her weakest, Mamata wants to lead the Mahagathbandhan and result will be comical
Himanta will counter AIUDF and Congress in Assam
Additionally, the presence of Congress will also aid Mahagathbandhan’s chances of getting a strong foothold in Assam. In Assam, AIUDF and Congress can contest elections together. The main goal of both these parties will be to reduce the popularity of Himanta Biswa Sarma in Assam.
Talking about Himanta Biswa Sarma, he is going to rely on Hindutva politics in Assam. It will benefit BJP the most because the majority community of Assam is angry with the antics of Muslim infiltrators there. They know that if these infiltrators are to be controlled, then it is very important to have BJP in the politics of the state and at the Centre.
Moreover, Himanta Biswa Sarma does not try to woo Muslims, but does talk about their development. In such a situation, it is believed that due to his policies, the youth and women section of the Muslim population can go with the BJP. Just like it recently happened with anti-BJP parties in recent assembly elections, AIUDF and Congress will suffer internal injuries in the form of intra-vote bank split.
Goa and Maharashtra
The fourth and last geographical bloc where a faction of Mahagathbandhan can make entry is Maharashtra and Goa. We are talking about a grand alliance for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, but the truth is that there has been a grand alliance in the name of Maha Vikas Aghadi in Maharashtra since the 2019 assembly elections.
It is believed that the same Grand Alliance will also be visible in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The weakest links of this grand alliance are definitely Congress and Shiv Sena. While Congress has lost its ground, Shiv Sena has been torn apart due to the rebellion of the current Chief Minister Eknath Shinde.
The Fadnavis factor with BJP
The emergence of Devendra Fadnavis as political strategist and kingmaker is the reason why MVA won’t be able to get a hold in the state. While he was in opposition, Fadnavis strengthened BJP’s grassroot and built a base for launching future offensives in the state. Moreover, the discontent against the treacherous nature of Shiv Sena among the masses is also not a good indication for the coalition.
The same Maha Vikas Aghadi was trying to contest for elections in Goa in the 2022 elections as well. But, due to the contradictory nature of parties in the alliance, all of them fought the elections alone, which resulted in the loss of all of them.
The strength of BJP in Goa politics can be gauged from the fact that even the MLAs mentioned by Congress left it and joined BJP. The Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party does try to show its strength, but it still does not seem to get any special political success here.
Not a successful formula
This Mahagathbandhan is not a simple Mahagathbandhan. It consists of 4 smaller coalitions. It is next to impossible to get all of these parties along with other minor ones on board. Simply, because a lot of these parties are rivals at the local level. They have different ideological origins and even if their vote banks are similar, they have different methods to cater to them. Individual ambitions of the respective leaders are another hurdle.
Getting all these parties under one umbrella for one purpose, which is to eliminate ‘saffronisation’ is next to impossible. It is a futile exercise and would be better for them if they base their election manifesto in development and real issues.
Temporary solutions to permanent problems do work in the short term, but it always fails in the long term and risks eliminating the particular political party from the national map. Except BJP, almost every party is facing this existential crisis, which explains their attempts to come together.
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