Whenever election season approaches, media starts to announce their own verdict on the public through their tools like voter- surveys etc… Often, politicians get swayed by these numbers. However, PM Modi is different. If you observe closely, BJP is playing a shrewd number game in Punjab.
Leaders flock to BJP
It has become a common sight to observe Aaya Raam, Gaya Raam phenomenon during elections. A leader unsatisfied with his own party takes recourse to rivals’. Punjab is also witnessing the same. Various leaders have recently flocked to BJP in order to get a fair chance to contest the election.
These include prominent Akali Dal leaders like Manjinder Singh Sirsa. Media advisor of SAD leader Bikram Singh Majithia and spokesperson of the Damdami Taksal, Prof Sarchand Singh are some other prominent names. They are expected to bring in some massive changes in political equations in Punjab.
Bifurcation of voters in Punjab Politics
In order to win over Punjab, a party needs to win over two prominent voting groups. They are Hindus and Sikhs. While Hindu votes normally remain consolidated, Sikh votes are further bifurcated into two factions Dalit Sikhs votes and Jat Sikh votes.
Traditionally, Sikh votes have been up for grabs. Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) is believed to be one galvanizing Sikh votes under their fold. In the 2017 assembly elections, SAD was in alliance with BJP.
The results were not in favour of both and SAD’s declining legitimacy between Sikh voters was confirmed. Instead, a major section of Sikh votes went to Congress as Captain Amarinder Singh was their main face. Both Dalit and Jat Sikhs had voted unanimously in favour of Captain.
Dali and Jat Sikhs are electorally fragmented entities
However, Dalit Sikhs feel underrepresented as Jat Sikhs are the main faces in every election. Charanjit Singh Channi’s appointment as Chief Minister in 2021 is believed to be Congress’ last attempt to turn Dalit Sikh votes in their favour. Channi is a Dalit Sikh by birth.
Read more: ‘Don’t give sacred seats to Dalits,’ Congress’ Sikh MP’s casteist advice to Akali Dal
Things are different in 2022. Both Dalit Sikhs and Jat Sikhs votes are divided. On one hand, Jat Sikhs are angry with Congress for their humiliation of Captain Amarinder Singh; the ousting has not gone well with Dalit Sikhs too, since Amarinder is popular among them as well. Moreover, the way a Dalit Sikh was lynched at the protests’ site also opened a crack among Dalit’s supposed loyalty to Congress in Punjab.
Read more: Congress is getting ready to snatch the lands of Jatt Sikhs through a District Collector order
Sikh voters are drifting away from Congress
Inch by Inch, Sikhs votes in Punjab are drifting towards BJP. Captain Amarinder Singh is now in alliance with the BJP. The former chief minister is believed to bring in the majority of Sikh votes with him. Moreover, the Shiromani Akali Dal (Sanyukt), Sukhdev Singh Dhindsa’s party is also in support of the saffron party.
Similarly, Manjinder Singh Sirsa’s previous records on the management of Gurudwaras will bring in more votes to BJP. He was also the President of the Delhi Sikh Gurdwara Management Committee and has huge clout in Siromani Gurudwara Prabandhak Committee (SGPC) as well.
Speaking about Sikhs consolidating in favour of BJP, Sarchand Singh said, “SAD is a Sikh party, but over the years, the party has declined. They have lost the trust of the people. And the development of Punjab will happen if there is a Hindu-Sikh brotherhood. And yes, in contrast, the BJP is largely catering to the Hindus but Sikh and Hindu brotherhood is known. And in the sense of secularism, why should Sikhs be left behind?”
SAD’s hardliner approach and Hindu vote consolidation
BJP’s work has also been cut short due to SAD going on an all-out attack. SAD realizes that it has lost its influence in Punjab. The party is contesting only on 80 seats in the assembly elections of 2022. Even on those seats, SAD is trying its best to stoke Sikhs’ emotions. They are taking hardcore religious lines, which does not work much in democracy. Ultimately, SAD is turning out to be a vote snatcher. Its presence will only diminish the presence of votes going in favour of AAP and Congress.
If we talk about Hindu votes, they are by and large consolidated in favour of the BJP. The Hindus who were disappointed with BJP in the wake of farm laws protest have been brought under the fold after its repealing. Moreover, the assassination attempt is expected to sway more Hindu votes towards BJP.
Elections are like wars. Most of the time, it’s the war-room strategy that decides the final result. The same holds true for BJP’s strategy in Punjab. A leader who is well versed with the public sentiment knows where the wave is and acts according to that. PM Modi’s 40-year experience of public life is expected to bore fruit in Punjab.