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The breakup of Afghanistan may be Tajikistan’s answer to Taliban-Pakistan nexus

Sanbeer Singh Ranhotra
by Sanbeer Singh Ranhotra
9 September 2021
in South Asia
2
Pakistan, Taliban, Kazakistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan
1.6k
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The Taliban’s rise to power has set in motion a grand reset in South and Central Asia, purely in geopolitical terms. Countries in the region are no longer willing to engage with the Taliban, except for China and Pakistan, who of course, have their petty interests to cater to, by wooing the violent extremist organisation. Now, Afghanistan is among the most diverse countries in the world- which only further exacerbates its societal fault lines. Owing to this societal heterogeneity – and the hegemony of the Pashtuns in the country, who form the dominant community, Afghanistan has always been volatile. Now that the Taliban has established its regime in Afghanistan once again, the societal fault-lines of the country are only set to worsen. 

Composition of Afghanistan

Sure, the Pashtuns are the dominant community in Afghanistan. The Taliban is entirely comprised of Pashtuns. However, in Afghanistan, there is a large number of Tajiks, comprising more than 30 per cent of the population. Then there are the Hazaras, who constitute close to 15 to 16 per cent of the population. There are also the Baloch, Uzbeks, Aimaqs, and others. Meanwhile, the British-era division of the region was carried out in such a way that Pashtuns got divided between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Still, Pashtuns constitute the majority in Afghanistan. Nonetheless, there exists a palpable conflict between the Taliban and Pakistan over the Durand Line, which is the de facto Afghan-Pakistan boundary. 

The Tajik Equation

While Pakistan and the Taliban are madly embracing each other right now, Tajikistan and Russia, and perhaps even other Central Asian countries may be looking to break up Afghanistan to free Tajiks, Uzbeks and other minorities from Taliban’s rule. A master plan is at work. Recently, Tajikistan awarded two deceased Afghan political and military leaders, former President Burhanuddin Rabbani and legendary Afghan guerrilla leader Ahmad Shah Massoud, with the ‘Order of Ismoili Somoni’, Tajikistan’s highest honour.

Read more: Russia’s friend Tajikistan is firing up anti-Taliban forces and humiliating Pakistan while at it

It may be noted that Massoud was known as the Lion of Panjshir and led the strongest resistance against the Taliban from his stronghold in the valley until he was assassinated two days before 9/11.

Tajikistan is therefore trying to draw the link between the ongoing Resistance against the Taliban from the Panjshir Valley, which is called the Northern Alliance and the huge stake of Tajiks in the ongoing turmoil inside Afghanistan.

The Tajiks abhor the Taliban. Tajiks and Uzbeks are not as highly radicalised as the Taliban. Secondly, the Tajiks and Uzbeks are ethnically different from the Pashtuns. They are minorities in Afghanistan who are targeted by the Pashtun majority Taliban, and therefore it is very natural for both the Tajiks and the Uzbeks to feel insecure under the rule of a Pashtun-dominated group, the Taliban.

The Partition of Afghanistan

The ethnic minorities of Afghanistan are concentrated mainly in the country’s northern provinces. Thus, they have dominion over Afghanistan’s northern areas, and if they decide not to live under Talibani rule, there is nothing which the terror organisation can do to force them to remain subservient. Sure, the Taliban might be registering temporary victories, but the reality is that Russia and Central Asian countries are looking to weaponise the sentiments of Afghan minorities, especially Tajiks, against the Pashtun-comprised Taliban.

For Tajiks and Uzbeks, the best-case scenario would be to defeat the Taliban and establish a democratic government in Afghanistan that respects minority rights. However, such a turn of events seems quite unlikely. In the present circumstances, it makes a lot of sense for the Tajiks and the Uzbeks to seek a separate nation, which is free from Taliban-led extremism.

Both Tajikistan and Uzbekistan do feel an ethnic connection with Afghan minorities. Interestingly, Tajikistan claimed that Tajiks make up more than 46 per cent of the Afghan population. Here, the number “46 per cent” is quite significant. What Dushanbe is doing is trying to do is raise the stakes of the Tajiks in the war-torn nation. Now, even Tajikistan understands that defeating the Taliban militarily isn’t a cakewalk. So, a practical solution is to disintegrate Afghanistan itself.

Tajikistan is the leading country in helping the Northern Alliance fight against the Taliban. The Northern Alliance operates from Afghanistan’s Northern region where most of the Uzbeks and Tajiks live. Meanwhile, there were reports about Tajikistan openly arming the resistance front which is fighting against the Taliban. The Northern Alliance led by Ahmad Massoud and Amrullah Saleh was said to have received military equipment, weapons, and other supplies from Tajikistan.

Breaking the Pakistan-Taliban Terror Nexus

All Central Asian nations, alongside India and Russia, agree that the nexus between Pakistan and a Taliban-ruled Afghanistan is a security nightmare for Asia as a whole. Therefore, by carving out a non-Pashtun dominated independent state out of Afghanistan’s current northern provinces, Russia and its allies might be looking to make the Taliban thirsty for more land. The Taliban eyes Pakistan’s provinces, including the NWFP, Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa for itself, as these house significant Pashtun populations. If the Taliban were to lose Afghanistan’s northern provinces, it would have to expedite plans for taking over Pakistani territory to create a ‘Greater Pashtunistan’. 

It is here that the romantic friendship between Pakistan and the Taliban will come to a screeching halt. Even if Afghanistan is not immediately broken up into two halves, the very perception of northern provinces forming a new, independent nation will motivate the Taliban to compensate for potential losses by beginning to wage a campaign against Pakistan, whose sole purpose will be the ‘liberation’ of Pashtun land currently under Islamabad’s control. 

A great geopolitical game is underway in Asia, and the future is hardly magnificent for either the Taliban or Pakistan. 

Tags: AfghanistanBalochistanPakistanRussiaTajikistanTalibanUzbekistan
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Sanbeer Singh Ranhotra

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Comments 2

  1. Avatar Bernard Grua says:
    10 months ago

    Here are my comments:

    “Countries in the region are no longer willing to engage with the Taliban, except for China and Pakistan”.
    China kept its embassy open and did not evacuate its people. So did Russia.

    “Tajikistan and Russia, and perhaps even other Central Asian countries may be looking to break up Afghanistan to free Tajiks, Uzbeks and other minorities from Taliban’s rule. A master plan is at work.”

    Let’s see some figures : Tajikistan (GDP 8.19 USD billion, Population 9.30 million), Afghanistan (GDP 19.81 USD billion, population 33.2 million), Pakistan (GDP 264 USD billion, population 221 million).

    The author give not the beginning of any evidence about a master plan that Tajikistan may have against Afghanistan and, de facto, Pakistan. Honoring two Tajik personalities of Afghanistan is not the beginning of any plan evidence. Moreover, the two last countries combined or even separated are much bigger in term of population and GDP than Tajikistan. Tajikistan can not challenge theses countries. It needs a partner. It will not be Russia.
    As mentioned above, Russia kept its embassy open in Kabul. Moreover, Moscow does not want extra destabilisation of Central Asia because of the number of workers coming from this region and because the risk of their radicalisation. As a consequence, Russia will not support any initiative. In the opposite Russia will contain any interference into Afghanistan situation. As far as Uzbekistan is concerned it will not support any reunification of Tajik from Afghanistan and Tajik from Tajikisatn people under Dushanbe rule. Because the next claim of this state would be Samarkand mostly populated by Tajik people. Moreover, Pakistan and China, which also have a Tajik population, will see this project as a threat in their territorial integrity.

    Tajikistan may deliver some limited support to Panjshir Valley and later, if the regions ar more autonomus it may come closer to the Tajik minority. More interference would put this minority at risks. There is nothing, presently, which could support the idea of a partition as a consequence Taliban ruling Afghanistan.

    “All Central Asian nations, alongside India and Russia, agree that the nexus between Pakistan and a Taliban-ruled Afghanistan is a security nightmare for Asia as a whole.”
    There are no such statements from Russia.

    The above article is an interesting tale. But it is an Indian fiction. Nothing more.

    Reply
  2. Avatar suku says:
    10 months ago

    the solution to this problem of talibs lies not in breaking of afgan but of containing the ambitious pakis, by controlling or splitting pak, it is because of pak support talibs- terror is- are growing/surviving, i believe northern alliance can take care of talibs in north afgan even if left alone, the root cause for terror in this region is pak

    Reply

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