Maharashtra’s political situation has taken an interesting turn of late with President’s Rule imposed in the state. With Shiv Sena having approached NCP and Congress for government formation following its break-up with the BJP, things have not looked great for Sena, which is desperate for the CM chair. While NCP has shown interest in forming government with Shiv Sena, its ally Congress has not yet taken a decision on the matter.
However, in this political mess, Congress got a golden chance to come to power, by supporting Shiv Sena-NCP alliance. But, so far, the party has been hesitant to support the alliance. The party leaders are having lengthy meetings with the legislators on the decision to support the alliance.
Congress has always tried to keep BJP out of power even when it didn’t have the numbers to form the government. In 2013 Delhi Assembly polls, BJP emerged as the single largest party winning 31 seats, while AAP managed to win 28 leaving Congress with just 8 seats. But to keep BJP out of power Congress decided to lend outside support to AAP. Similarly in 2018 Karnataka Assembly polls, Congress despite of not having the numbers to form the government decided to tie up with JD(S) to keep the single largest party, i.e., BJP out of power.
Now, one must ask that when the party has a golden opportunity to keep BJP out of power and become part of the government, why they are hesitant to support. Well, the political history of Congress party and power dynamics are reason behind Congress’s hesitation to support the Shiv Sena-NCP alliance.
Congress has always been a powerful political force in Maharashtra. The party had been in power in the state for most of the time except 1994-1999 and 2014-2019 when BJP-Shiv Sena coalition (known as Maha Yuti) governed the state.
In late 1990s, when party’s most powerful and most popular leader- Sharad Pawar broke away to form Nationalist Congress Party, it seemed like the era of Congress is over. But, the party came to power in alliance with NCP. Despite the formation of NCP, which weakened the Congress party in western Maharashtra region, Congress remained a powerful political force.
In every subsequent election, it won more seats than NCP and was the senior partner in the alliance government, with the chair of CM always in Congress party’s hand. But, in the last two assembly elections, Congress weakened even in comparison to NCP. In 2014 assembly elections, Congress won 42 seats while NCP’s tally was 41.
In 2019 assembly election, the party’s tally increased to 44 but NCP performed exceptionally well and its seats increased to 54. If Congress decides to support Shiv Sena-NCP alliance, the party will be weakest alliance partner.
For the first time in the political history of Maharashtra, Congress will be forced to play second fiddle to NCP, if the party decides to ally with Shiv Sena to form the government in the state.
After the results for elections were declared, there was only two winners- Sharad Pawar and Devendra Fadnavis. The people of Maharashtra have given a very clear verdict, in favour of a Fadnavis-led government, with 161 seats out of 288. To form government, 145 seats are needed and the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance has a clear majority in the state. But, Shiv Sena made the illegitimate demand of half term CM chair and the alliance dithered.
The parties fought the election in alliance with Devendra Fadnavis as the Chief Ministerial face. But, in order to grab the CM chair for Thackeray family scion- Aditya, the party turned its back to alliance. Shiv Sena has been demanding the CM chair for half term (2.5 years) despite the fact that the party won 56 seats at strike below 50 percent (it won 56 out of 124). BJP, which won 105 seats and had around 70 percent strike rate (it won 105 out of 152), is not ready to give up on the CM chair.
The second winner of the election was Sharad Pawar led NCP. The fighting spirit of 78 year old Pawar was hailed by everyone, his speech amid rain generated many new Pawar fans. The number of seats won by the party increased from 41 to 54 and it became the third largest party, just two seats less than Shiv Sena (56). If the alliance comes to power, Pawar, a towering political figure in the state, will definitely overpower the 29 year old Aditya Thackeray.
Shiv Sena does not have political support, shrewdness, craftsmanship, manpower, or money power to compete with well-oiled political infrastructure of NCP. On the other hand, Congress could match NCP on all these fronts. But, given the fact that Congress will contribute the least number of seats, it would not have much say in the government.
Once the Shiv Sena-NCP-Congress alliance forms the government, the wily old Pawar will overpower both Shiv Sena and Congress and by the next election, he would weaken both parties through ‘merger and acquisition’. The only opposition left to NCP will be the BJP.