Madhya Pradesh, where Congress registered a marginal victory in the 2018 state assembly elections is again in the spotlight for the upcoming 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The 2014 general elections saw a decisive sweep by the BJP in the state with just two seats of the total twenty-nine going to the Congress; Guna and Chindwara represented by Jyotiraditya Scindia and Kamal Nath respectively. Likewise, with Kamal Nath busy in state politics, predictions for the 2019 general elections by different survey agencies are also not a good sign for Congress’ electoral ambitions in the state. Various opinion polls came out in consensus of a dominant BJP in Madhya Pradesh polls.
Times Now-VMR survey suggests, BJP winning 23 out of the total 29 Lok Sabha seats in the state. India TV-CNX Opinion poll also indicates 23 seats for BJP out of 29, while ABP-CVoter Survey also gave a similar indication of BJP ahead on 23 seats.
Amid adverse political environment coupled with increasing pressure, Congress has been struggling to find winnable candidates for Lok Sabha in the state. In addition, the deep roots of BJP in the state are catalyzing unfavorable conditions for Congress. According to reports, in at least ten Lok Sabha constituencies Congress is facing difficulties to find strong candidates. Congress with its dismal record of electoral performance in Madhya Pradesh in the last few decades has been unable to win on some seats for a long time.
Congress has been losing from Bhopal and Indore Lok Sabha seats for the past eight elections. Vidisha considered the bastion of BJP in the region has been out of Congress’ reach for the past ten elections. Similar trends can be seen in Jabalpur, Bhind and other constituencies.
The newly elected government from its first day has been on the back foot over urea shortage in 18 Districts. Experts relate Kamal Nath government’s diminishing popularity to nonfulfilment of polling promises like unemployment allowance etc., deteriorating law and order situation in Madhya Pradesh and rampant minority appeasement. Prahalad Bandhavar, a BJP leader from Mandsaur was shot dead in a cold-blooded murder just days after Kamal Nath government took over. Kidnapping case of 5 years old twin brothers from the town of Chitrakoot who were found dead and many other similar cases have exposed the deteriorating situation of law and order in the state of Madhya Pradesh.
With voters running out of patience, together with non-delivery of promises made by the grand old party has led to complex situations for the Congress in upcoming Lok Sabha elections. Many experts suggest that inability to find suitable candidates for the general elections points towards the Congress that it neither has the capacity or the capability to effectively counter the BJP in the state.
The rising unpopularity of the party in the state has consequently further dampened the electoral ambitions of the INC for the 2019 general elections. With the party facing difficulty in finding strong and credible candidates for the polls and just a few months into the government which many would term as the honeymoon period, Congress in the state has been on a decline in terms of support from the voters and greater issues regarding efficient electoral management, analyzing the current political scenario, many experts believe it to be devastating election for the Congress in Madhya Pradesh.