Even as the pseudo secular cabal has gone into the celebration mode after the results in the five state assemblies were announced, it is time for the Bharatiya Janata Party to dissect the reasons behind the defeat in the elections. While the pseudo-liberals are hell-bent on blaming demonetisation and GST for BJP’s defeat, it is necessary to go into the true reason behind the poll results. It must be kept in mind that while there was a clear verdict in states like Chhattisgarh, Telangana, and Mizoram, there was a close competition between the Congress and the BJP in the states of Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. Particularly, in Madhya Pradesh things went down to the wire.
The difference in vote share between the Congress and the BJP in states of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh has turned out to be quite narrow. It is 0.2 per cent and 0.1 per cent respectively in both these states. One more thing which stands out as a common thing in both these states is a disproportionately high percentage of NOTA votes. While 1.5 per cent of the total voters chose NOTA in Madhya Pradesh, it ranged as high as 1.3 per cent in the state of Rajasthan. In Madhya Pradesh, the NOTA got the highest number with 4,15,342 votes. It is clear that anti-BJP forces were successfully able to ensure a number of voters switching over to NOTA who would have otherwise voted for the BJP. Had the proportion of the voters choosing NOTA been substantially lesser, the results could have been quite different. The Congress and its ecosystem could have been compelled to celebrate a moral victory instead of getting to celebrate its victory in the assembly polls. Here, one might argue that these NOTA votes could have gone either way. But a careful analysis would suggest that most probably the BJP had to bear the brunt of a rise in the proportion of NOTA votes.
It would not be pragmatic to argue that all the NOTA votes would have gone in BJP’s favour. However, it is clear from the recent social media trends that a vast majority of those supporting NOTA as a voting option were disillusioned BJP supporters. It seems that a simple strategy of the anti-India forces was to start a pro-NOTA campaign and get some of the BJP supporters to vote for the NOTA. This means that not voting for the BJP indirectly amounts to supporting the Congress and other pseudo-secular parties. A factor which helped such forces instigating BJP supporters to vote for NOTA was a growing perception that the BJP had reacted to the Supreme Court judgment on the SC/ ST (Prevention of Atrocities) Act in the wrong manner. Many of such BJP supporters who seem to have been disenchanted by the party’s reaction after the apex court judgment might have chosen NOTA over the BJP. It is clear that a considerable majority of those choosing NOTA would have voted for the BJP, had they not chosen NOTA during the elections.
This is not for the first time that the NOTA has turned out to be a bane for the BJP. Before this, the BJP had lost more than six seats because of NOTA in the Karnataka assembly polls. Later on, the JD(S) and the Congress stitched an unnatural and unholy coalition. The BJP was not able to emerge victorious and remained behind with a thin margin. And the same pattern has been repeated in the assembly elections this time around. Given the manner in which the election trends were changing frequently during the counting of votes, the winning margins in individual constituencies must have been pretty narrow. Therefore, a change in vote share could have very easily translated into a change in the number of seats. It is clear that if considerable NOTA voters had voted for the BJP, the poll results would have been very different. These elections are a lesson not only for the Bharatiya Janata Party but also for the party supporters who may be feeling disenchanted on issues of temporary importance.