Addressing a rally in Chhattisgarh, the former Uttar Pradesh chief minister Akhilesh Yadav mounted a fierce attack on both the BJP and the Congress Party. Akhilesh alleged that both parties were corrupt, and that they were two sides of the same coin. It is one thing for the SP to contest the upcoming state elections on its own, just like the Mayawati-led BSP was forced to do when it could not strike a deal with the Congress Party. It is quite another to take a confrontational stance months before the 2019 elections, for which the so-called Mahagathbandhan was conceptualized. Of course, this can be dismissed as a purely political statement in the context of the state elections, but here’s why this must have sent a chill down the spine of the Congress establishment.
When the Mahagathbandhan was conceptualized a few months back, and a successful experiment of sorts was carried out during the byelections in Uttar Pradesh, the Congress Party and its ecosystem developed a newfound sense of hope. After the 2014 elections, instead of rebuilding the party, Rahul Gandhi had ensured that it had remained rudderless. Bankruptcy prevailed, both literally and in terms of ideas. The cadre was demotivated as ever, and on every issue, the party was exposing itself further and further. During this slump, the idea of the Mahatgathbandhan came as a godsend for the Congress establishment. That the road to Delhi passes through Lucknow isn’t emphasized enough. They suddenly realized that without working for it, and despite their current condition, they could simply sit back, stitch an alliance and ruin the BJP’s chances in 2019. The best part for them was that they weren’t compromising on anything. After all, they just had the two family pocket boroughs in Uttar Pradesh, and nothing else.
Unfortunately, this was the Congress Party’s only card to keep BJP out of power in 2019. So it was quite natural that the entire Congress establishment and the Lutyens ecosystem began to panic at the prospects of Mayawati ditching the grand alliance. Rumours about how the BJP was tightening the screws on her empire, or how the BJP had offered her deputy prime ministership, began flying thick and fast. All of this might have been prevented if the ever-complacent Rahul Gandhi had reached out to her and explored the possibility of tying up with the BSP for the upcoming state elections. But that wasn’t to be. Mayawati announced that she would contest the state elections without the Congress, with regional partners such as Ajit Jogi. She hasn’t still closed the door entirely on the Mahagathbandhan for 2019, and people say she is waiting to see which way the states swing. The general consensus among the Mahagathbandhan’s cheerleaders though is that she holds the key for which way the country swings in 2019.
The only flaw in their analysis is that they had taken Akhilesh Yadav for granted all this while. Perhaps his latest statement will wake them up from their slumber. Had I been a cheerleader of the Mahagathbandhan, I would have been much more concerned about Akhilesh Yadav than about Mayawati, since day one. The fact of the matter is that Mayawati might have her reasons to dump the grand alliance, but Akhilesh’s reasons to dump the grand alliance have much more weightage.
If one is to go according to the 2014 general election results and the 2017 state election results, it is quite clear that even if the Samajwadi Party performs terribly, it manages to survive in Uttar Pradesh’s political landscape. The same cannot be said about the BSP and the Congress. As things stand today, a four-way contest, or even a three-way contest, is an existential threat to the BSP and the Congress Party in Uttar Pradesh. Akhilesh Yadav has three decades of politics ahead of him. What is more crucial for him, to defeat the BJP in 2019 or to finish the BSP and the Congress in Uttar Pradesh entirely and forever? This is a question that only Akhilesh can answer.
In 2014, Uttar Pradesh politics witnessed a tectonic shift. Courtesy a host of factors, the BJP’s vote-share rose from around 15% to over 40%. With a divided opposition, the BJP and its allies managed to win 73 of the 80 seats. The Congress managed to hold on to the two family pocket boroughs, and the BSP scored a duck. The SP, with a vote-share of over 22%, managed to win 5 seats. Come 2017, and it was a 3-way contest. The SP had allied with the Congress. The SP clung to its 22%, and with the Congress by its side, ensured that the minority votes don’t split. It managed to bag over 50 seats, with the Congress winning 7 seats. The BJP maintained a vote-share of over 40%, and along with its allies won a whopping 325 seats. The BSP failed to bag even 20 seats.
The bottom line here is that with the current factors at play, the Congress and the BSP get zilch in three-cornered or a four-cornered fight. In terms of vote-share, things didn’t change much between 2014 and 2017, and aren’t expected to change in 2019 either. In fact, if Uttar Pradesh does end up witnessing a three-cornered or a four-cornered fight, there are several reasons why the BSP and the Congress will fare even worse than before. BSP is finding it hard to hold on to its core voter-base, with its traditional voters gradually shifting towards the BJP on one side, and Chandrashekhar Azad’s Bhim Army clawing at it on the other side. The Congress Party was largely restricted to Amethi and Rae Bareli, and it looks like the BJP is putting extra effort to snatch these constituencies from them.
So what happens if there is a three-way or a four-way contest in Uttar Pradesh? Essentially, the BJP sweeps the state with the Samajwadi Party being the sole survivor in the saffron onslaught. If the BJP wins 2019, the Congress Party as we know it today will implode anyway. And with BSP being kept out of power for even longer, no access to government machinery and funds would mean that even this outfit would eventually wither away. So what remains in Uttar Pradesh will be Yogi Adityanath on one side and Akhilesh Yadav on the other. Upset with CM Yogi? Support Akhilesh. Want to vote CM Yogi out? Vote Akhilesh in. Had enough of Modi in 2024? Give Akhilesh 50 Lok Sabha seats.
With age on his side, Akhilesh Yadav has far more to gain from pulling the plug on the Mahagthbandhan than Mayawati has. Will Akhilesh realize the long-term potential of this move? This is something the Mahagathbandhan’s cheerleaders should be more nervous about than a probable BSP exit.