With the 2019 elections set to take place next year, the political atmosphere is heating up. Political parties are slowly getting into election mode and a special feature of the upcoming elections will be multiplicity of prime ministerial contenders. Within the grand alliance itself there are a number of prime ministerial candidates who are constantly trying to outdo each other and occupy the top post next year. One of such contenders is West Bengal chief minister, Mamata Banerjee who has been time and again seen as a contender for the top post. We therefore undertake an analysis of Mamata Banerjee as a prime ministerial candidate.
Mamata’s main strength, without a doubt is her Muslim vote bank. Throughout her tenure as the West Bengal chief minister she has done everything to appease Muslims. In fact, under her tyrannical rule, West Bengal has virtually become a communal tinderbox. Her act of putting restrictions on Hindu festivals whenever there is a clash of dates with Muslim festivals is also a clear proof of her appeasement politics. She has even gone to the extent of supporting illegal infiltration from Bangladesh and it has actually paid off for her. In 2016 assembly elections, Mamata Banerjee emerged victorious mainly on the back of extensive Muslim support. TMC won in 90 out of 125 constituencies having sizeable Muslim population.
Another major strength of the West Bengal chief minister is her energetic and violent cadre. When it comes to muscle power, TMC is second to none. In the recent Panchayat polls, TMC workers have shown that they can go to any extent and even kill their opponents if need be. Recently, it also came to light that TMC workers want to join the BJP but they were not doing so being frightened by Mamata’s fury and fearing for their own lives. She has come to be seen as a potential candidate within the grand alliance as well. She has been particularly active ever since the idea of a grand alliance came in the picture. It seems that barring Congress, several opposition parties do see her as a serious prime ministerial candidate.
However, she has a weak side as well. Blatant Muslim appeasement came at its own cost. Even though she has been able to create a massive Muslim vote bank for herself, she has created an anti-Hindu image for herself. Her candidature could therefore lead to the entire grand coalition losing out on Hindu votes to the benefit of BJP. Apart from this, TMC is a purely regional party not having much presence outside the state of West Bengal. In such a situation, it is not going to be a cakewalk for her to lead the grand coalition to a victory if she becomes the face of the coalition.
What Mamata Banerjee can capitalize upon is the fact that Congress has become too weak to be assertive within the grand alliance. The West Bengal chief minister has the perfect chance to overpower the Congress and look to fight for the top post. The Congress has been regularly playing second fiddle to the regional parties and where the contest is between BJP and Congress only, the Congress invariably faces defeat. Therefore, no one takes the Congress seriously and Mamata Banerjee can easily sideline the Congress president Rahul Gandhi.
However, the main threats that Mamata Banerjee will have to keep in mind are going to be Congress’ reluctance to take the backseat and the BJP’s dramatic rise in West Bengal. Factions of the Congress have already spoken against any poll alliance with TMC in West Bengal. State Congress president, Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury has made it clear that the anti-BJP alliance must be led by its party president Rahul Gandhi, and also suggested that Mamata was trying to project herself as a pan-India leader. Thus, the Congress seems adamant on projecting Rahul Gandhi as the prime ministerial candidate.
BJP’s rise in West Bengal is also a worrying trend for Mamata Banerjee. BJP has in the recent past shown the hunger to do well in states where it traditionally enjoyed little or no presence and it seems that West Bengal is now on Shah’s radar. His recent speech in Kolkata was met with a lot of enthusiasm and there is palpable inclination in West Bengal in favour of the BJP. BJP could absolutely destroy Mamata’s bastion next year and that could very well mean curtains for Mamata Banerjee as far as her prime ministerial ambitions are concerned.
Even though Mamata Banerjee is facing a stiff challenge at the hands of a rising BJP in West Bengal, the fact remains that she seems to be acceptable to all regional and anti-BJP players. Her meetings with Sharad Pawar and Naidu seemed to suggest her acceptability. Former Prime Minister Deve Gowda has even publicly suggested her name for the top post. Congress anyway plays second fiddle to regional allies and ultimately seeing no option might just accept her as the coalition’s contender. Even if Congress does not agree, it is not such a significant player that it cannot be ignored. Mamata Banerjee will be banking mainly on Muslim votes. It remains to be seen whether the grand coalition allies are ready to fight an election wholly on the basis of such polarization.