Soon after voting was closed in the states of Nagaland and Meghalaya, the Election Commission’s ban on post-poll exit polls was lifted and various platforms have predicted which parties will form a government in the three north-eastern states which had gone to polls (Tripura had voted in the past week). If the results of the exit polls are to be believed, the Saffron surge will soon eclipse the Indian North-East with all three states to have a BJP or NDA/NEDA partner on the helm.
Tripura Exit Polls
In Tripura, at least two exit polls have given BJP a clear upper hand. Tripura has been one of the last bastions of the Left in India and has been a Marxist stronghold for 25 years. If the reports and exit polls of JanKiBaat-NewsX, The CVoter exit poll and Axis MyIndia and News24 are to be believed, the saffron party which had barely polled a mere 2% in the last elections, is all set for a stupendous rise in Tripura. The Axis MyIndia and News24’s tally predicts 45-50 seats for the BJP-led NDA and 9-10 for the CPI (M)-led Left Front. According to the CVoter’s exit poll, the fight is too close to call between the BJP — which has an alliance with IPFT — and the Left in Tripura. They predict that the CPI(M) will get 26-34 seats and the BJP’s alliance will get 24 to 32 seats in the 60-member assembly. Another poll, JanKiBaat-NewsX has predicted that the BJP-IPFT alliance in Tripura will win 35-45 seats with a vote share of 51 percent. It must be noted that one pre-poll survey had even called for a BJP-led dispensation coming to power in the state of Tripura. Unsurprising, all these exit polls point towards a huge moral victory for the Congress which is consistently found to get 0-2 seats in all three polls and has almost completely been reduced to a political non-entity in the state.
Meghalaya Exit Polls
In the state of Meghalaya (Currently ruled by the Congress party), the JanKiBaat-NewsX exit poll predicts that the National People’s Party (NPP) will get anywhere between 23-27 seats and the BJP will get 8-12 seats with vote shares of 39 and 12 percent respectively. The ruling Congress is predicted to be routed and will get only 13-17 seats with a vote share of 21 percent. Others may get 2 to 6 seats. The CVoter exit poll predicts a photo finish between the Congress (13-19 seats and a vote share of 36.5%) and the NPP (17 to 23 seats and a vote share of 29.4 %). The BJP in Meghalaya may get 4-8 seats with a vote share of 16.6 % and the UDP-HSPDP likely to bag 8-12 seats and 8.8. % vote share.
Nagaland Exit Polls
In the state of Nagaland, the ruling NPF is set for a shocker if the exit poll results hold true. As per the JanKiBaat-NewsX exit poll in Nagaland, the alliance of the NDPP-BJP is likely to breach the fortress of the ruling NPF. The alliance is predicted to win 27-32 seats with a vote share of 48 percent, against the NPF’s 20-25 seats and a vote share of 42 percent. The others are likely to get 5-7 seats with a vote share of 5-6 percent. The CVoter survey predicts that the NDPP-BJP is likely to get 25-31 seats with a 38.4 percent vote share and the NPF likely to bag 19-25 seats with a vote share of 27.1 percent with others winning 6-10 seats with a vote share of 14.8 percent. The Congress in Nagaland is all set for a “gigantic moral victory” with 0-4 seats according to both exit polls.
While the results of the exit polls must be taken with a pinch of salt, one thing is for certain. The Grand Old Party of India, Congress is fast becoming a political non-entity in the Indian North-East. They have lost Arunachal Pradesh due to their own antics and the sidelining of Assam’s strongman Himanta Biswa Sarma by Rahul Gandhi has proved deadly for them in the state of Assam. Last year, BJP fast cobbled together an alliance to rule in Manipur while Congress was caught unaware and unsure of its next step. If the results of the polls are in sync with the exit polls, the Congress will have only further shrunk on the Indian Political map.
So BJP is all set to win Tripura and Nagaland, while Meghalaya looks like an achievable target too.