TFIPOST हिन्दी
TFIPOST Global
Tfipost.com
Tfipost.com
No Result
View All Result
  • Premium
  • Politics
    • All
    • Analysis
    • Opinions
    • Trending
    PM Modi in Bihar After Pahalgam Terror Attack: Pays Tribute, Announces Major Projects Worth ₹13,480 Crores

    Modi Government’s 72-Hour Operation Redefines India’s Counter-Terror Doctrine

    Donald Trump Announces Surprise India-Pakistan Ceasefire, Credits American Mediation

    Donald Trump Announces Surprise India-Pakistan Ceasefire, Credits American Mediation

    Pakistan Bloody Trail: A Chronicle of Terror from Bombay to Pahalgam (1993–2025)

    Pakistan’s Bloody Trail: A Chronicle of Terror from Bombay to Pahalgam (1993–2025)

    Will India Push Pakistan Back to the FATF Grey List?

    Will India Push Pakistan Back to the FATF Grey List? A Timeline of Its Previous FATF Setbacks

    • Analysis
    • Opinions
    • Trending
  • Economy
    • All
    • Business
    • Economy1
    • Finance
    Designing For Impact: Create Exceptional Small Businesses Marketing Materials

    Designing For Impact: Create Exceptional Small Businesses Marketing Materials

    Things You Need to Consider Before Choosing an L&T Finance Two-wheeler Loan

    Things You Need to Consider Before Choosing an L&T Finance Two-wheeler Loan

    Crypto Trading Signals Explained: A Comprehensive Guide

    Crypto Trading Signals Explained: A Comprehensive Guide

    Crypto Arbitrage Trading

    Crypto Arbitrage Trading

    • Business
    • Finance
  • Defense
    • All
    • Defence
    • Strategy
    • Weaponry
    The Demand of ‘de-escalation’ Is a Shield for Terror, Not a Call for Peace

    The Demand of ‘de-escalation’ Is a Shield for Terror, Not a Call for Peace

    Operation Sindoor

    How Operation Sindoor became a Grand Success: Over 100 Terrorists Eliminated in 25-Minute Blitz

    Operation Sindoor: India Destroys JeM Base, Kills Masood Azhar’s ten Family Members

    Operation Sindoor: India dismantles JeM terror infrastructure, neutralises Masood Azhar’s ten family members

    Operation Sindoor

    Why Operation Sindoor? Because No One Touches the Sindoor of an Indian Woman Without Consequence

    • Defence
    • Strategy
    • Weaponry
  • Geopolitics
    • All
    • Africa
    • Americas
    • Asia Pacific
    • Europe
    • South Asia
    • West Asia
    Operation Sindoor still on: India neutralises Pakistan’s Chinese-made HQ9 Air Defence System in Lahore

    Operation Sindoor still on: India neutralises Pakistan’s Chinese-made HQ9 Air Defence System in Lahore

    UNSC

    UNSC Rejects Pakistan’s Anti-India Narrative, Demands Accountability for Pahalgam Terror Attack

    Credit: ANI

    India Japan Defence Meet: Pahalgam Attack Sparks Renewed Solidarity

    Khalistanis take out Anti-Hindu rally in Canada

    Canada: Khalistani extremist parade PM Modi, HM Amit Shah, Jaishakar’s effigies in mock jail; calls for deportation of 8 lakh Hindus

    • Africa
    • Americas
    • Asia Pacific
    • Europe
    • South Asia
    • West Asia
  • Knowledge
    • All
    • Culture
    • Education
    • History
    • Indology
    How to Decide Between Amity and Manipal for Your Online MBA Journey

    How to Decide Between Amity and Manipal for Your Online MBA Journey

    Mughals, Delhi Sultans Out, Fresh Chapters on Indian Rulers, Mahakumbh Introduced: NCERT revises Class 7 books

    Mughals, Delhi Sultans Out, Fresh Chapters on Indian Rulers, Mahakumbh Introduced: NCERT revises Class 7 books

    Role of Consultants to Study in Ireland: How to Choose the Right One?

    Role of Consultants to Study in Ireland: How to Choose the Right One?

    The Complete Guide to Education Loan Interest Rates in 2025

    The Complete Guide to Education Loan Interest Rates in 2025

    • Culture
    • History
    • Indology
  • Law
  • Lounge
    • All
    • Books
    • Cinema
    • Entertainment
    • Food
    • Games
    • Health
    • Lifestyle
    • Satire
    • Sports
    • technology
    • Travel
    The Best Foods to Increase Your Libido and Enhance Your Life

    The Best Foods to Increase Your Libido and Enhance Your Life

    FIFA World Cup 2025: Which Teams Have the Best Shot at Glory?

    FIFA World Cup 2025: Which Teams Have the Best Shot at Glory?

    Download MCW App in Bangladesh and Start Winning

    Download MCW App in Bangladesh and Start Winning

    How Does Sports Betting Work in India?

    How Does Sports Betting Work in India?

    • Books
    • Cinema
    • Food
    • Health
    • Sports
    • technology
    • Travel
    • Satire
Tfipost.com
  • Premium
  • Politics
    • All
    • Analysis
    • Opinions
    • Trending
    PM Modi in Bihar After Pahalgam Terror Attack: Pays Tribute, Announces Major Projects Worth ₹13,480 Crores

    Modi Government’s 72-Hour Operation Redefines India’s Counter-Terror Doctrine

    Donald Trump Announces Surprise India-Pakistan Ceasefire, Credits American Mediation

    Donald Trump Announces Surprise India-Pakistan Ceasefire, Credits American Mediation

    Pakistan Bloody Trail: A Chronicle of Terror from Bombay to Pahalgam (1993–2025)

    Pakistan’s Bloody Trail: A Chronicle of Terror from Bombay to Pahalgam (1993–2025)

    Will India Push Pakistan Back to the FATF Grey List?

    Will India Push Pakistan Back to the FATF Grey List? A Timeline of Its Previous FATF Setbacks

    • Analysis
    • Opinions
    • Trending
  • Economy
    • All
    • Business
    • Economy1
    • Finance
    Designing For Impact: Create Exceptional Small Businesses Marketing Materials

    Designing For Impact: Create Exceptional Small Businesses Marketing Materials

    Things You Need to Consider Before Choosing an L&T Finance Two-wheeler Loan

    Things You Need to Consider Before Choosing an L&T Finance Two-wheeler Loan

    Crypto Trading Signals Explained: A Comprehensive Guide

    Crypto Trading Signals Explained: A Comprehensive Guide

    Crypto Arbitrage Trading

    Crypto Arbitrage Trading

    • Business
    • Finance
  • Defense
    • All
    • Defence
    • Strategy
    • Weaponry
    The Demand of ‘de-escalation’ Is a Shield for Terror, Not a Call for Peace

    The Demand of ‘de-escalation’ Is a Shield for Terror, Not a Call for Peace

    Operation Sindoor

    How Operation Sindoor became a Grand Success: Over 100 Terrorists Eliminated in 25-Minute Blitz

    Operation Sindoor: India Destroys JeM Base, Kills Masood Azhar’s ten Family Members

    Operation Sindoor: India dismantles JeM terror infrastructure, neutralises Masood Azhar’s ten family members

    Operation Sindoor

    Why Operation Sindoor? Because No One Touches the Sindoor of an Indian Woman Without Consequence

    • Defence
    • Strategy
    • Weaponry
  • Geopolitics
    • All
    • Africa
    • Americas
    • Asia Pacific
    • Europe
    • South Asia
    • West Asia
    Operation Sindoor still on: India neutralises Pakistan’s Chinese-made HQ9 Air Defence System in Lahore

    Operation Sindoor still on: India neutralises Pakistan’s Chinese-made HQ9 Air Defence System in Lahore

    UNSC

    UNSC Rejects Pakistan’s Anti-India Narrative, Demands Accountability for Pahalgam Terror Attack

    Credit: ANI

    India Japan Defence Meet: Pahalgam Attack Sparks Renewed Solidarity

    Khalistanis take out Anti-Hindu rally in Canada

    Canada: Khalistani extremist parade PM Modi, HM Amit Shah, Jaishakar’s effigies in mock jail; calls for deportation of 8 lakh Hindus

    • Africa
    • Americas
    • Asia Pacific
    • Europe
    • South Asia
    • West Asia
  • Knowledge
    • All
    • Culture
    • Education
    • History
    • Indology
    How to Decide Between Amity and Manipal for Your Online MBA Journey

    How to Decide Between Amity and Manipal for Your Online MBA Journey

    Mughals, Delhi Sultans Out, Fresh Chapters on Indian Rulers, Mahakumbh Introduced: NCERT revises Class 7 books

    Mughals, Delhi Sultans Out, Fresh Chapters on Indian Rulers, Mahakumbh Introduced: NCERT revises Class 7 books

    Role of Consultants to Study in Ireland: How to Choose the Right One?

    Role of Consultants to Study in Ireland: How to Choose the Right One?

    The Complete Guide to Education Loan Interest Rates in 2025

    The Complete Guide to Education Loan Interest Rates in 2025

    • Culture
    • History
    • Indology
  • Law
  • Lounge
    • All
    • Books
    • Cinema
    • Entertainment
    • Food
    • Games
    • Health
    • Lifestyle
    • Satire
    • Sports
    • technology
    • Travel
    The Best Foods to Increase Your Libido and Enhance Your Life

    The Best Foods to Increase Your Libido and Enhance Your Life

    FIFA World Cup 2025: Which Teams Have the Best Shot at Glory?

    FIFA World Cup 2025: Which Teams Have the Best Shot at Glory?

    Download MCW App in Bangladesh and Start Winning

    Download MCW App in Bangladesh and Start Winning

    How Does Sports Betting Work in India?

    How Does Sports Betting Work in India?

    • Books
    • Cinema
    • Food
    • Health
    • Sports
    • technology
    • Travel
    • Satire
No Result
View All Result
Tfipost.com
Tfipost.com
No Result
View All Result
  • Premium
  • Politics
  • Economy
  • Defense
  • Geopolitics
  • Knowledge
  • Law
  • Lounge

Coalition Government in 2019? Doesn’t seem likely

Atul Kumar Mishra by Atul Kumar Mishra
25 February 2018
in Opinions
Coalition 2019
Share on FacebookShare on X

It is only a matter of time before we start seeing the campaigns for India’s general election in 2019 which will determine whether PM Modi will retain the confidence of the public. Of course, Rahul Gandhi seems confident of a positive result after the moral victory in Gujarat where BJP clinched victory for the 6th time. However, in all seriousness the question remains:

Who is going to be the winner of the 2019 general Indian elections? BJP, Congress or worse – Is India heading back to a coalition government? At least the media seems to strongly bat for the third probability. Haven’t we read a dozen op-eds about a possible coalition government in 2019?

But, the answer to this question is very difficult because the nature of Indian politics is very volatile. Anything can change within the blink of an eye. There are however certain logical factors than can gives us an an idea about what could happen in the Summer of 2019.

RelatedPosts

Telangana Facing Severe Financial Crisis: CM Revanth Reddy Appeals for Employee Support

Supreme Court junks contempt proceedings against BJP MP Nishikant Dubey

Canada: Khalistani extremist parade PM Modi, HM Amit Shah, Jaishakar’s effigies in mock jail; calls for deportation of 8 lakh Hindus

Load More

Statistics:

The latest opinion-poll conducted by India Today suggests that if election were to be held today, the NDA would win 309 of 543 seats, which would be a downgrade from the current 336. However, the poll also suggested that 53% saw PM Modi as the best person to be the prime minister. This opinion poll predicts that if election were to be held today, BJP would lose a few seats, but the NDA would retain power as the popularity of PM Modi remains unchallenged.

The Times Group on the other hand did a mega online poll which found that 79% of people will vote for PM Modi in 2019 which would most likely produce a bigger majority for the BJP. Furthermore 31% said that they would not vote for BJP if Modi were to be replaced as the PM candidate.

Another opinion poll published in detailed by C-voter in January predicted that if election were to be held today, NDA would retain 251 out of its 256 seats. The last relevant statistic is the approval rating of Modi determined by the Pew Research Centre. The Pew Research Centre found last November that a staggering 88% of Indian approve of Narendra Modi.

All the opinion polls, online polls and ratings indicate that that there is still a strong Modi wave in the country and BJP should win a comfortable majority in 2019.

National Democratic Alliance:

A factor to consider is the strength of the the National Democratic Alliance. The NDA since its inception has grown and shrunk many a times. There are many parties who wish to always side with the winning side.  However, this time it seems the NDA has started losing allies in an unprecedented way. The strongest ally of the BJP throughout history has arguably been the Shiv Sena. As we learned a few months ago the Shiv Sena has decided to contest the 2019 election alone which means that they will depart from the NDA for the general elections. Another strong ally of the BJP in the NDA has been the TDP. Of late there have been tensions between the 2 coalition partners. Chandrababu Naidu even threatened to go as far as calling a vote of no confidence against the BJP in the Lok Sabha. If the TDP also pulls the plug, the BJP will be left with just the JDU, Akali Dal and a bunch of smaller parties. PDP cannot be trusted as a trustworthy coalition partner considering their soft stance towards Kashmiri Separatists.

While coalition partners seem to be getting disenchanted with the BJP, BJP itself is getting stronger in many areas where it may not even need any partners soon. For example, BJP does not need any big regional partners for Jharkhand, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh. BJP’s vote shares have skyrocketed in Odisha and West Bengal an PM Modi’s is cleverly playing his cards in Tamil Nadu, keeping both the Dravidian Parties on tenterhooks. Perhaps the decline of NDA is the rise of the BJP in terms of power.

State Elections:

Another key factor that will influence the results of the general elections are the state governments. So far, the BJP has done well in elections to form state governments in most Indian states. However, this year is going to be a tough one for the BJP as North Eastern states along with Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh go to elections this year. In order to build the moments, BJP needs to win most of these states.

With little push Karnataka can fall to the BJP. Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh would most likely be retained given the personal auras of the respective Chief Ministers. Rajasthan will be the toughest battle for the BJP. Rajasthan could give Congress their first real victory in a long time (after winning many moral victories).

PM Modi – The Star Campaigner:

There is simply no man like Narendra Modi when it comes to oratory. He is light years ahead of all his contemporaries. PM Modi hasn’t switched to his star-campaigner mode yet but the opposition knows that once the campaigner Modi is back, there is absolutely no stopping him. BJP’s cadre strength has almost doubled in the past 4 years. More state governments have given the party a better organizational strength. BJP has Yogi Adityanath now who has proved to be the biggest crowd puller after PM Modi. All these factors will help PM Modi when he goes out asking for votes. People love PM Modi, the statistics back it up and so do the results. There is a reason Modi won several elections back to back in Gujarat as he ruled for 13 years.

Prediction:

If BJP can win most of the states in 2018, NDA might get reduced to just BJP plus smaller regional parties (JDU and SAD being the sole exceptions). In that case, BJP will, in all probabilities, win the Lok Sabha elections all by itself. But, if BJP loses some of the states in 2018, they will need to reconsider their stance and reassess the worth of TDP and Shiv Sena to ensure their support for the 2019 election. In this scenario a Modi led NDA government will be installed at the center, but the coalition partners will have more teeth.

The last scenario in which Congress wins most of the states in 2018 seems both impossible and absurd, but if that happens a Congress led coalition in 2019 will be a certainty. Rahul Gandhi will readily be supported by Mamata Banerjee, Sharad Pawar, DMK, Naveen Patnaik (who fears the rise of BJP in Odisha), SP, BSP, RJD and other regional satraps making it a formidable force. But even in that scenario, it will be very tough for UPA3 to beat PM Modi. I would give a 70-25-5 chance to the three scenarios respectively.

Tags: 2019 General ElectionsBJPCoalitionCongressNarendra ModiNDARahul GandhiUPA
Share893TweetSend
Previous Post

Sridevi’s Unfortunate Death politicized by Congress Party

Next Post

Tarun Gogoi’s frustration is natural, because Gen Rawat has blown his cover

Related Posts

The Tale of how Operation Sindoor Silenced Satyapal Malik and His Echo Chamber
Opinions

Operation Sindoor Success: Satyapal Malik and ilks disappears into abyss of silence

8 May 2025

On May 6, former Jammu and Kashmir Governor Satyapal Malik appeared in a much-publicised interview with controversial journalist Karan...

Operation Sindoor
Defense

Why Operation Sindoor? Because No One Touches the Sindoor of an Indian Woman Without Consequence

7 May 2025

In a rapid and decisive response to the Pahalgam Islamist attack that claimed the lives of 26 innocent tourists...

BJP’s Caste Census Play has flipped the Political Script but let's calculate its efficiency
Opinions

Why Caste Census now?

3 May 2025

Politics, at its core, is about timing, power, and control of the narrative. With one unexpected move , announcing...

Load More

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

I agree to the Terms of use and Privacy Policy.
This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

Currently Playing

Pakistan needs money from IMF to feed their people

Pakistan needs money from IMF to feed their people

00:15:20

Vacate PoK and more: Steps Pakistan needs to take to avoid Indian military action

00:06:36

Taking The Wire’s Propaganda Piece on VP to the Cleaners – Feat. Prof. Kapil Kumar

00:09:19

Rahul Gandhi Undermines India’s Electoral Integrity as Trump Applauds It

00:07:09

Why Pakistan army chief reminds two nation theory| what is the plan| Waqf Bill |Asim Munir| Jinnah

00:13:02
Facebook Twitter Instagram Youtube
tfipostTfipost.com
Right Wing | News Analysis | Indian Opinion
  • About us
  • Careers
  • Brand Partnerships
  • Terms of use
  • Privacy Policy
  • Sitemap

©2025 TFI Media Private Limited

No Result
View All Result
  • Premium
  • Politics
    • Analysis
    • Opinions
    • Trending
  • Economy
    • Business
    • Finance
  • Defense
    • Defence
    • Strategy
    • Weaponry
  • Geopolitics
    • Africa
    • Americas
    • Asia Pacific
    • Europe
    • South Asia
    • West Asia
  • Knowledge
    • Culture
    • History
    • Indology
  • Law
  • Lounge
    • Books
    • Cinema
    • Food
    • Health
    • Sports
    • technology
    • Travel
    • Satire
TFIPOST हिन्दी
TFIPOST Global

©2025 TFI Media Private Limited