Three weeks ago, I saw him. Sitting on the pillion seat of a bike he was waiting for the director to say ‘action’. Amidst the soft Mumbai drizzle and the cacophony of the fans gathered to watch their Thalaiva, he sat there devoid of expression. But then, he was a good actor and so could easily camouflage his thoughts deep inside his brain. Over the last three weeks news of Superstar RajniKant finally entering politics have evolved from being mere rumours like earlier into a sort of confirmation.
While people like Gurumurthy felt he would provide the much needed impetus to Tamilnadu politics, the maverick Subramanian Swamy declared he would be taking on the Superstar by the horns, much like the Jallikattu fashion.
Well, the date 17th July, 2017 is not only critical for BJP and Narendra Modi, but equally critical to both Dravidian parties and Tamilnadu. As of now, both factions of AIADMK supported the candidature of Ramnath Kovind for the post of President. DMK will go with Congress as they can’t be seen with BJP, whom they now consider their main opponent in state politics. The sad demise of Jayalalithaa has left a huge void in the state politics that was filled with the greed of her party MLAs. The party has majority in the assembly and AIADMK could have comfortably completed the remaining tenure, if not for the power hungry Sasikala tried to usurp the control of the state. In her eagerness, she burnt the ladders she climbed and has no one else to blame except for her.
Ruling proxy for Jaya was already a task in which Paneerselvam excelled. Even Jayalalithaa compared him with Bharata, who relinquished kingdom when Rama returned to Ayodhya. In the present days of backstabbing personalities, Tamilians saw one person, who was above the greed for power in OPS. But, he was naïve. He allowed Sasikala to manoeuvre the actions of polity ever since Jaya was admitted in the hospital and even after her death. He was silent even when Sasikala occupied Poes Garden villa and assumed the post of General Secretary. He only opposed her when she wanted him to vacate the chief minister seat in favour of her. By that time, he lost time. If not for the Supreme Court’s upholding of her conviction and Governor’s decision to wait for the verdict, she would have become the CM. Supreme Court’s decision might have saved the state from experiencing her rule directly, but could not save the indirect rule through E Palani Swamy.
Maybe it is the result of her Karma that forced Sasikala to be in Bengaluru jail, instead of being CM of Tamilnadu. She played all her cards right, opening them one at a time and when they are needed. She took entire BJP into confidence, playing along with them. In a way, BJP too woke up very late, like OPS. However, unlike OPS, BJP runs the Union Government and thus controls the Raj Bhavan. Once Sasikala was safely confined to the Bengaluru jail, BJP acted swiftly but decisively taking its long term goals into consideration.
When Dinakaran tried to become an MLA from RK Nagar constituency, there arose a fight for the party symbol by both factions. EC’s decision to freeze the ‘Two Leaves’ symbol forced the politically inexperienced but impatient Dinakaran to attempt bribing EC. In the episode followed, Dinakaran’s actual level of political skills were exposed not only to the media but to the party leaders and people of the state. There was a realisation between both factions of AIADMK about the necessity to integrate, but individual egos prevented the merger.
Sensing the never before opportunity Stalin, now leading DMK tried to requisite for the dismissal of the government and formally requested the Governor for another trust vote in the assembly. The popularity of AIADMK amongst voters reached its nadir and this is the time to push the case off DMK forward.
The dilemma for the BJP’s top brass however, is the lack of a popular face amongst its so called Tamil leaders. Adding to its woes was the farmers’ agitation that attracted national attention by their out of book gimmicks. True, Tamil farmers are at the receiving end and perhaps, the most ignored lot. They suffered from not only the natural calamities but even the state government’s apathy.
Meanwhile, representatives from National South Indian Rivers Inter-Linking Farmers Association met Rajnikant reminding him of his age old promise of donating One Crore Rupees for farmers. And, some of these farmers were those who took part in the agitation in Delhi. When he wanted to give them the money, they asked him to give it to Prime Minister and he obliged.
Managing to take off some time from Mumbai, where his next film is being shot Rajnikant went to Chennai and met leaders of Hindu Makkal Katchi . Arjun Sampat, president of HMK declared Rajnikant will be entering politics soon. And thus curtains have been lifted to another era in Tamil politics. Maybe Rajnikant is averse to join BJP directly, despite having a friendly relationship with Narendra Modi and so choose HMK as his launch pad. Or BJP itself wanted Rajni to be with someone else so as not to lose Dravidian votes.
The latter may be correct considering BJP and AIADMK both have fought elections separately in 2014. Open coalition between them would force the opposition DMK and Congress too to join forces. If really Rajnikant decides to join politics, it is seen that he and Stalin would be competing for the Chief Minister post, as and when next assembly elections are held.
Any decision by BJP on Tamilnadu politics would be taken only after Presidential elections are over. Once Modi got his candidate occupying the Rashtrapati Bhavan, he can deal with Tamil politics the way he and Amit Shah find it suitable to enhance their fortunes. As of now, despite being angry, Dinakaran could not do anything to rub BJP in a negative way and so the ruling faction of AIADMK would be voting for BJP’s candidate. OPS faction is already supporting BJP. In all probability, next election may be between DMK and a formal or informal alliance between BJP, Rajnikant and AIADMK(OPS) alliance.
A fight with Stalin is not going to be smooth. 2G case verdict may be coming soon. If Raja and Kanimozhi are freed and walk out of court, DMK’s cadre would be resurgent with enthusiasm. If either of them are convicted, Stalin will have a tough job to distance himself from them. This job is only tough but not impossible.
In Tamilnadu politics, DMK’s internal politics are too well known. How DMK was divided between Stalin, Azhagiri and Kanimozhi factions is also widely known to the general public. Once the aging stalwart publicly criticises Raja and Kanimozhi, Stalin would be free of any side effects of 2G scam. Helping him is his established credentials as an able administrator. State people knew very well that it was only Stalin, who presided over the last two terms of DMK rule.
However, there is one point where Rajnikant would be scoring handsomely over Stalin. It was the public perception of a man’s character .The actual reason why MG Ramachandran ruled till his death was because of the clean and white image he had in the minds of people. Apart from not smoking and drinking even ‘on-screen’ MGR regulated his personal life as an ascetic one. And, this was the main reason Karunanidhi had to wait till his death to reclaim the state. Though much maligned by corruption charges, Jayalalithaa was always perceived to be deceived by ‘Mannargudi Mafia’ operated by Sasikala and so people considered her a better choice over the Karunanidhi family, where every member of family was abusing the power in one or the other way.
It is because of his personal character that Rajnikant was always more popular in Tamilnadu, despite the presence of Kamal Hasan in the same industry, who was a better actor.
The simplicity of Rajnikant in his life and returning money to producers who lost when his films bombed at box office have created an impression of a person who was not after money. His frequent spiritual journeys to Himalayas too spiced up his charisma. Though Subramanian Swamy is known for his zealous pursue of cases against the high and mighty, whether he would really have a case against Rajnikant is to be seen, when he files his case. Even then, Swamy could get Jayalalithaa convicted in the court of law, but failed to prevent her winning people mandate. Swami is bound to lose this case too.
All in all, after the presidential elections, if the members of AIADMK behave in a foolish way to get dethroned, we may witness one interesting fight between Stalin and Rajnikant. So, wait how Tamil people will receive Superstar’s entry into politics. Swamy’s criticism reminded me of Rajni’s entry into films as a villain, only to become Superstar.
PS: I personally don’t like Rajnikant, a better person entering politics. After all, power corrupts.
