To be able to forecast the results of an election, one must analyse the results of the previous elections first. In the case of Uttar Pradesh we need to analyse previous three elections – The last 2 Assembly Elections and the General Elections.
Let us first analyse the 2007 Assembly Elections:
Mayawati led BSP to its best ever performance in the state. It was for the first time since 1993 that a Party had a clear majority in the house. The solid blend of Dalits, Brahmins and Muslims had scripted Mayawati’s glorious victory. But there was an interesting finding, even SP had registered a marginal increase in its vote share. So, it was certain that both Mulayam and Mayawati had eaten into BJP’s core voter base.
Now let us analyse the 2012 Assembly Elections:
In 2012, Akhilesh shocked everyone. BSP received a massive drubbing at the hands of the young Samajwadi Prince. There were some interesting findings again. A sizeable number of Dalits had abandoned Mayawati as they thought that BSP was being increasingly Brahmanized. SP gained from it. SP’s core voter base remained more or less the same but it found greater support among non-Yadav OBCs, Kurmis and Kshatriyas apart from Dalits as mentioned above. BJP was hopeless yet again. Uma Bharti’s lacklustre campaign was no match to Akhilesh’s Cycle Yatras and rallies.
Finally, let us analyse the 2014 General Elections:
In 2014, all equations went for a toss, all theories and thumb rules were defied. The upper cate vote block stood resolutely behind the BJP. BJP found support in Jats from West UP, non-Yadav OBCs and Non Jatav (Mayawati’s loyal vote bank) Dalits. But the most interesting finding was that BJP even got votes from urbanized, educated, slightly well off and development seeking Yadavs and Jatavs. In a nutshell, Modi’s Vikas agenda trumped all caste equations. Numerically BJP clocked 60% OBC votes, 15%Dalit Votes, 27% Yadav votes and a whopping 72% Brahmin votes. And that scripted BJP’s biggest ever win in the state of UP, the scales of which even surpassed the records set during Ram Lala movement.
The three elections explain the caste dynamics of Uttar Pradesh beautifully and they also explain that sometimes development trumps caste.
The results of the elections can be explained as below:
Samajwadi Party has the most loyal voter base (Muslims + Yadavs) in Uttar Pradesh. They have constantly clocked 23 percent to 27 percent votes. Addition of any new caste group makes them the potential victors.
BSP has steeper crests and troughs in its voter patterns, barring the over 30% that it got in 2007, the party has never put up an impressive show. The core voter base of Mayawati(Jatavs) is miniscule as compared to the mammoth M+Y base of SP. More than anything else, Mayawati depends on the shifting loyalties of caste groups.
BJP was a sore loser in Uttar Pradesh. By 2012, it lost its Brahmin voters to BSP and Kshatriyas to SP. But it became a different party altogether in 2014 and Amit Shah led BJP has no past baggage to carry.
How do the Caste Equations stand now?
The current caste breakup of Uttar Pradesh is as follows:
OBC – 29%
Muslim – 20%
Dalits – 14%
Yadav – 10%
Brahmins – 10%
Rajput – 8%
Other SC – 7%
Jat – 2%
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The current voting blocks are as follows (Please note that I am taking the best-case scenario for all parties)
Samajwadi Party – Muslim+Yadav + Some Kshatriyas (+OBC?)
Bahujan Samaj Party – Muslim+Dalit+Other SC+ Some Brahmins +(OBC?)
BJP – Brahmins+Rajputs+Jats (As Ajit Singh is a non-player this election) + (OBC?)
There are two key takeaways from the above distribution:
- Division of Muslim Votes:
SP has had the unwavering support of Muslims conventionally but the shoddy handling of Muzzaffarnagar riots turned the tides against them. In addition to the riots, the SP infighting has been a dampener too. Muslims were looking to vote for BSP this election and Mayawati seems to have read the writing on the wall. She nominated as many as 97 Muslim candidates this time. But SP’s last moment alliance with Congress Party makes it look like a formidable force again. Add the apparent merger of Mukhtar Ansari led Quami Ekta Dal with BSP to the equation. The last moment creation of two strong “Pro-Muslim” alliances are bound to confuse the Muslim voters more. The alliances should ideally lead to a massive split of Muslim votes.
- The Unique positioning of OBC Votes:
As we can see that there is one caste that has not sworn fealty to any party yet. In electoral terminology, such caste groups are called King Makers. They decide the fate of the election. An OBC tilt will decide the victor of this election. OBC votes are up for grabs. That’s 29% of the total electorate, 60% of which was won by BJP last election. And things haven’t changed on the ground. Apna Dal and Bharat Samaj Party have been roped in to lure the OBC voters. And the fact that Modi is an OBC himself makes BJP’s case even stronger.
Conclusion:
Since this is supposed to be an analysis based on numbers hence I am not factoring in the effect that demonetisation and Surgical Strikes might have had on the electorate. These are unquantifiable issues but the general opinion is that these have given a massive boost to the PM’s popularity in the states.
The absence of a CM face is a blessing in disguise because BJP Uttar Pradesh has many CM contenders and any pre-poll announcement may lead to party infighting and even negative voting. Also, Uttar Pradesh is not Bihar. The Congress-SP alliance is a silly joke as compared to the Lalu-Nitish alliance. While Akhilesh is still a popular choice for the CM Seat, he is no Nitish Kumar neither in terms of achievements nor realpolitik skills.
It will be difficult if not impossible for BJP to lose the Uttar Pradesh Elections, the state looks set to bring BJP back in power.
With inputs from Politicalbaba.com and Swarajyamag.com
All numbers/data have been sourced from CSDS reports and 5forty3.in