Ajit Jogi was an IAS officer in MP. He was young dynamic and from the ST quota. Arjun Singh saw some promise in him and asked him to join congress. He was meant to be Singh’s man in Chhattisgarh, which was then part of MP. Arjun’s rivals Vidyacharan Shukla and Motilal Vora controlled this region, which was a congress bastion in those days.
Years later, when NDA created Chhattisgarh, congress had the majority of MLAs and as usual the high command chose the one deemed most loyal. Ajit Jogi became the first Chief Minister of Chhattisgarh. It is telling, therefore, that today he is an outcast and keeps criticizing Rahul’s leadership. He is going to announce a new party any moment soon, and split the Congress which has lost three state elections in a row.
Chhattisgarh congress has always been riddled with factions. When a majority of the leadership was wiped out by a Naxal attack in 2013, it seemed for a while that Jogi hegemony will prevail. There were even a few rumblings that this seems too convenient for Ajit Jogi. (Son of the slain presumptive CM candidate has openly accused Jogi of “assassination”)
There was no end to factionalism though. Bhupesh Baghel emerged as a rival, and closer to RG. Ajit Jogi didn’t lead congress in Vidhan Sabha elections. And the party lost, narrowly, to a marginally popular BJP. Infights resumed immediately. Many accused Jogi faction of colluding with BJP. Some tapes emerged that were conclusive proof for some, and more factionalism for others. The Jogi faction today is bigger than Ajit Jogi. It’s a dynasty. His wife Renu Jogi and son Amit Jogi are both in active politics. (Amit has been to jail for murder, but freed later). This is a fight for the survival of his family. So what does a new party run by Ajit Jogi mean?
For Ajit Jogi this means freedom. Free of the internal politics and free to pursue his ambition. He is the biggest congress mass leader, probably the biggest mass leader overall in the state.
His followers will have no choice but root for him unequivocally. He has connections in all places of the state and represents the only hope of dynamism for supporters of Congress or those who oppose BJP. This might be a Trinamool moment in Chhattisgarh.
But what does that make BJP? While it is true that BJP in Chhattisgarh is not at all hated the way the Communists were in Bengal, it is also true that BJP has not fully capitalised on the mandate so far. Chhattisgarh has seen a lot of doles and “schemes” and free stuff, but has not seen the kind of dynamic leadership that BJP has shown in neighbouring MP. Chhattisgarh with its huge natural resources has not been able to shine. The roads and infrastructure still not where they need to be. Whispers of corruption are everywhere. This is the moment of truth for BJP. A leader with some mass support and the automatic support of anti-BJP forces threatens to take the party head-on. They have a couple of years till the next state elections. They have the support of the centre too. Time to get into the real game. They will fight a real, energised party this time. Not a fragmented mess.
Congress has been a fragmented mess and is heading to shed just the fragmented part. The mess seems destined to stay. They are still dependent on the national “leadership” for guidance. The local leaders either don’t have ideas or don’t voice them for the fear of being seen as ambitious. If ambition marks you as a rebel in party, that part will soon be full of bootlickers and lickspittles, and then pass away gently into the abyss. As congress has done everywhere a third force has emerged, it seems destined to slowly fade away into meaninglessness. Rahul Gandhi and the “loyalists” are only converting the slow gentle process into a fast precipitous one.
And what does that mean for the country? We seem to be heading towards a system with one national level party fighting regional powers everywhere. BJP is already the largest party of the nation, but congress is declining faster than most anticipated. A system of regional parties is great for regional ambitions, but was does that mean for the country as a whole? It means coalition where many partners owe no loyalty to 90% of the country. It means a number of leaders that can only talk about the regional issues and ignore what’s needed for the country as a whole. It means third and fourth fronts and arguments that remain divided by linguistic boundaries. Like Mamata as Railway minister, it will lead to leaders who thing appeasing just a part of the country is good enough.
Congress has not been a good protector of the national interest. In its tenure we have seen numerous instances of them sabotaging the national interest for petty politics. BJP needs to stay above that. It has the tough task of being the only power that talks about the country as a whole and yet take regional aspirations into account. A smart balance of central and state level leadership is needed to achieve that. That’s what Congress failed to do.