Prashant Kishor: Why Batting for Congress in UP is going to be His Waterloo Moment?

I for one consider Prashant Kishor a supremely overrated figure, someone who is often painted as a social media guru, Master Poll Strategist, Chanakya, Sun Tzu, what and what not. A native of Shahabad district in Bihar, Prashant Kishor began his career as a public-health activist. He majorly worked in the states of Andhra Pradesh and Bihar. He was picked by the World Health Organization, who signed him up for a United Nations internship in the mid-2000s.

He created an election campaign group that boasted of a large number of strategists from the best universities across the globe. It was called Citizens for Accountable Governance, or CAG as most of us call it. He stormed to success when he along with his CAG helped Narendra Modi led NDA pummel the opposition. However his romance with the Bhartiya Janata Party didn’t last long. Soon Prashant Kishor and some of his his CAG team members regrouped and started another election campaign group called Indian Political Action Committee or I-PAC. And they started batting for Modi’s bête-noire Nitish Kumar in the widely followed 2015 Bihar assembly elections. Success again pecked his cheeks as Nitish Kumar led Mahagathbandhan crushed a disarrayed BJP. And from then on, Prashant Kishor came to be known as the miracle man, someone who knew how to win elections. Nitish Kumar, who not so secretly nurtures Prime Ministerial ambitions in his heart made sure Kishor and his colleagues are well taken care of so that they can be roped in again in Modi Vs All 2019 General Elections where he could be the face of a united opposition. Prashant Kishor is advisor to Chief Minister of Bihar on Policies and Program Implementation.

And now, The Indian National Congress has given Prashant Kishor the mandate of shepherding the 2017 UP elections. And the not-so-acclaimed political strategist in me says, this is going to be Kishor’s waterloo moment.

Prashant Kishor is no god, he is like the Aamir Khan of Political Strategizing. Aamir Khan is famous for choosing strong scripts and then editing his roles to perfection. Any weak movie brings out the not-so-perfect actor out in open, Dhoom-3 can be a recent and a good case study. Now coming back to Prashant Kishor. Prashant Kishor has the knack for smelling winners much before they run past the finishing line. As soon as he is accepted by the prospective winners, he goes all out to ensure himself maximum visibility.

Prashant Kishor in General Elections 2014:

No let us begin with this simple questions – What were the factors that led to Modi’s landslide victory in 2014?

1. Modi’s credentials as a top performing CM: Modi as the CM of Gujarat helped his state ascend to new altitudes of progress. Gujarat became the most preferred destination for corporates. Modi’s minimalistic lifestyle and his visionary outlook made him a leader of national stature.

2. Modi the Hindu Nationalist: Modi is probably the first mainstream politician of India who never shies from introducing himself as a Hindu nationalist. He doesn’t really fall for the secular moral code that leaders of India are supposed to follow. This facet of Modi was widely cherished and won him followers from Far-right to liberal-right

3. Disarrayed Opposition: The two major votebanks of India, namely the Dalits and Muslims had too many patrons, none of whom were ready to get into a pre-election alliance. INC, AAP, LEFT, TMC, SP, BSP, RJD, JDU, NC, PDP were all fighting for the same or similar electorate while Modi and Co. were banking on the division of votes. The lack of unity led to division of votes indeed and the 2014 General Elections saw INC getting reduced to a party of 44 MPs.

4. Anti-Incumbency: UPA-II was perhaps the most corrupt regime of India. From 1,76,000 2G scam to 1,86,000 CWG Scam, the citizens of India saw it all. Unrest was in the air. Congress had reduced itself to a symbol of corruption and Modi came as a gust of fresh breeze. The citizens desperately wanted a change.

With such strong factors on his side, Prashant Kishor laid down an impressive social media and electioneering strategy which was the icing on the cake.

Prashant Kishor in Bihar Assembly Elections 2015:

Now let us look at the factors that contributed to Nitish Kumar’s Victory in 2015 Assembly Elections in Bihar.

1. No Anti-Incumbency against Nitish Kumar: Though Nitish Kumar’s move to align with Lalu was widely criticized, his personal trust ratings never plummeted. He upheld his position at the top in the list of the most preferred CM candidate of Bihar. In Short, there was no anti-incumbency against Nitish Kumar

2. Consolidation of Dalit-Muslim-OBC votes: Lalu Prasad Yadav has a domineering presence in the minds of Yadav voters which make up a sizeable population in Bihar. Lalu has been the number one choice for Muslim voters for decades. Even the Dalit voters don’t exactly distrust Lalu. Nitish Kumar has a good presence in the Dalit, Kurmi and other OBC categories. And then they had Congress which has traditionally appealed to the Dalit voters. The INC-JDU-RJD combine was a masterstroke, which confined BJP’s reach to just 35% or less of the total voters in Bihar

3. Lack of local Face: BJP did a self-goal by making it a Modi Vs Nitish fight. The lack of a good CM candidate who could respond to Lalu’s taunts in chaste Bhojpuri-Magahi-Maithili language sealed BJP’s fate.

With such strong factors on his side, Prashant Kishor laid down an impressive social media and electioneering strategy again which was the icing on the cake.

And Nitish Kumar won in style by crushing BJP’s might, pride and ambitions all at once.

Now why electioneering for Congress in Uttar Pradesh is going to be Prashant Kishor’s waterloo moment?

Because Congress is not the dominant political force in Uttar Pradesh, It stands at number four in a state where there are 2 major players and 2 minor players. Congress doesn’t have a single charismatic leader in Uttar Pradesh. N. D. Tiwari was the last Congress CM of Uttar Pradesh and I am talking about the year 1989. Yes that’s right, from last 27 years UP hasn’t seen a Congress CM. Congress was completely washed out in last Assembly elections as well as the General elections. Congress doesn’t have a core base of its own. Muslims and Yadavs of UP stand resolutely behind Samajwadi Party. And Mayawati is the statue of divinity for Dalits. BJP appeals to the upper caste Hindus and a large number of OBC voters in UP. Apart from the aforementioned points lack of party unity, dwindling worker base, and drying funds are major issues with Congress as well.

Prashant Kishor doesn’t have a single strong factor on his side. He can still lay down an impressive social media and electioneering strategy but winning Uttar Pradesh is not going to be an easy thing to do. Either Political parties take Prashant Kishor tad too seriously or Maybe Prashant Kishor has started taking himself too seriously.

But backing Mamta in Bengal and Captain in Punjab are good decisions.