Nitish Kumar has refused to join the opposition bandwagon that cries hoarse about the ongoing demonetization exercise. Instead, he has chosen to support the Modi government over this issue. This is probably Nitish’s smartest political move in recent memory, and for several reasons.
The recent by-polls, the first elections conducted post demonetization, were a litmus test for the government. The BJP seems to have passed with flying colors, making massive gains in their strongholds and large inroads in areas where they were politically insignificant. According to India’s best psephological agency 5forty3, these results indicate a nationwide surge in the party’s vote share by around eight percent from 2014 levels. This is huge for the BJP, considering it won an absolute majority in 2014.
No doubt Nitish Kumar was quick to catch on to the public’s pulse about demonetization, and wisely chose to go with the tide.
But effectively, he achieved much more than that. The Congress Party, the Trinamool Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party have various scams attributed to them, creating the perception of corruption. Their opposition to the demonetization exercise has only enhanced this perception, making them look like thieves trying to salvage their spoils. Nitish has cleverly avoided getting clubbed with this bunch., creating the perception of corruption. Their opposition to the demonetization exercise has only enhanced this perception, making them look like thieves trying to salvage their spoils. Nitish Kumar has cleverly avoided getting clubbed with this bunch.
Moreover, it is well known that Nitish Kumar harbored ambitions to lead a united opposition in the 2019 general elections. But with the Congress Party having taken a backseat post 2014, and Rahul Gandhi making a royal mess of things time and again, there are several strong regional leaders vying to lead the anti-Modi front. In the last few weeks, Mamata Banerjee who is much better placed politically than Nitish at the moment, emerged as a frontrunner. Perhaps Nitish chose to take the government’s side on demonetization because Mamata championed this issue to break into national politics, and he was in no mood to play second fiddle. Or perhaps he wanted to stay out of her way and watch her credibility plummet nationally.
Back home in Bihar, Nitish Kumar is fighting other battles. For a chief minister once famous for good administration, it could never have been a bed of roses with Lalu Prasad Yadav being the power behind the throne. With Lalu being the primary alliance partner, Nitish is having to make several compromises, especially with respect to law and order which is believed to be Nitish’s forte. Every now and then, Lalu’s cronies demand that his son and deputy chief minister Tejaswi replace Nitish.
Supporting the government over demonetization is the perfect way to get some leverage over Lalu. First, it sends out the message that Nitish Kumar isn’t averse to the BJP’s every move, and is keeping his options open. Speculation about Nitish’s secret meeting with BJP president Amit Shah at a farmhouse in Gurugram, and Amit Shah’s subsequent appreciation of the stand Nitish Kumar has taken, have certainly not been lost on Lalu. Moreover, Nitish’s stand is also an attempt to rub salt onto his convict alliance partner’s wounds, who has probably been majorly affected by the demonetization exercise.
Speculation about Nitish’s return to the NDA is rife. Many think Nitish is finally ready to put his ego aside and work with the BJP at both the state and the central level, just like the good old days. Perhaps it might happen sooner than later, but for now, Nitish has killed many birds with one stone.
