The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday marginally raised its global growth forecast, with an improved outlook for the Indian economy as well.
In its latest update, the IMF projected India’s economy to grow by 6.4 per cent in both 2025 and 2026—an upward revision of 0.2 percentage points from its April estimate.
IMF said India is projected to grow 6.4 per cent in 2025 and 2026, “reflecting a more benign external environment than assumed in the April reference forecast.”
The revision reflects a more favourable external environment than previously anticipated.
Global growth for 2025 is now pegged at 3 per cent, up from the earlier estimate of 2.8 per cent, while the forecast for 2026 remains at 3.1 per cent.
The IMF attributed the improved outlook to stronger-than-expected front-loading of trade ahead of anticipated tariff hikes, lower average US tariff rates than initially projected, improved financial conditions driven partly by a weaker dollar, and fiscal expansion in several major economies.
“This reflects stronger-than-expected front-loading in anticipation of higher tariffs; lower average effective US tariff rates than announced in April; an improvement in financial conditions, including due to a weaker US dollar; and fiscal expansion in some major jurisdictions,” the IMF said.
Growth projections for both the US and China have also been revised upward. China’s forecast saw the biggest jump, rising 0.8 percentage points to 4.8 per cent.
India’s homegrown digital payment platform, the Unified Payments Interface (UPI), has now become the world’s largest real-time payments system by volume, surpassing global financial giant Visa. This remarkable development was highlighted in a recent report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which praised UPI for its scale, efficiency, and impact on financial inclusion.
The IMF’s fintech report, titled “Growing Retail Digital Payments: The Value of Interoperability,” notes that UPI is now processing more than 640 million transactions every single day. This figure edges out Visa, which averages around 639 million daily transactions globally. The leap underscores India’s dominance in the digital payments space, driven by wide-scale adoption and strong backend infrastructure.
The IMF praised India’s digital payments journey, particularly for the way UPI has brought millions of people into the formal economy. By removing the dependency on cash and reducing the cost of financial transactions, UPI has helped democratize access to digital banking services.
India’s success with UPI is now being seen as a potential model for other developing economies seeking to leapfrog legacy banking systems and build inclusive, digital-first financial ecosystems. With ongoing support and further global partnerships, UPI is poised to reshape how the world thinks about payments, fast, free, and for everyone.