Will 2025 be the year when the Narendra Modi-led government at the Centre shapes the contours of a new foreign policy that complements the ‘Viksit Bharat’ model of governance?
The indications are already there, coming directly from none other than Foreign Minister Dr. S Jaishankar. At an event in Delhi mid-December, he asserted that a vision for a developed India needs a foreign policy for ‘Viksit Bharat’.
He explained the context for this view gaining ground. “So, if the domestic model has changed, if the landscape has changed, if the behavioural patterns of states have changed, and if the tools of foreign policies have changed, how can foreign policy remain the same?”
Logically, then, a ground is apparently being laid for the fresh-looking policy.
“If today our aspiration at home is to become a Viksit Bharat, surely there must be a foreign policy for Viksit Bharat. And, that foreign policy in a way, I would say, we had about a decade ago suggested the need for India to start thinking about moving towards a leading power. How to be more ambitious, how to plan ahead.”
Modi laid down the vision of ‘Viksit Bharat’ that proposes to turn India into a developed country by 2047, to coincide with the centenary of Independence.
How geo-political events unfold in 2025 and how India reacts to them will influence the ‘Viksit Bharat’ foreign policy.
The first test of the changing trends in the foreign ministry will be how India tackles Donald Trump in the new year. He will again assume office and take charge at the White House on January 20. He has already riled the atmosphere by threatening tariffs on BRICS nations—India is one of them—if the body pursues the plan of a new currency to pit against US dollars.
During the presidential campaign, Trump had targeted India directly, saying it was a high-tariff country. The H-1B visa issue has already turned into a cross-continental row worrying millions of skilled Indians.
At the level of global oil politics, New Delhi has to see how Trump reacts to India continuing to purchase discounted oil from Russia, evading American sanctions and exporting the refined oil to Europe. Trump has already threatened Europe with tariffs if it does not buy oil from his country.
During the Biden administration India was a strategic partner for the US in the Indo-Pacific. The country is a key member of the QUAD initiative that works for a rules-based international order in the South China Sea region to curb China’s expansionist politics and aggression against Taiwan.
However, India’s stand will depend on how the relationship between the US and China unfolds in the early months of the Trump presidency.
Trump has threatened a massive round of tariffs on Chinese imports to his country. He may continue the policies to choke China’s access to hi-tech goods that could help it enhance AI participation in the military.
The Chinese analysts see the new year as marking the self-claimed transformation of China from a mass manufacturing base into a high-tech powerhouse under its ambitious “Made in China 2025” plan, unveiled a decade ago.
However, all that may come undone because of friction with the West. It may possibly worsen, too, going by Trump’s last term that saw Washington launch a global campaign against Chinese telecoms firm Huawei, while outgoing President Joe Biden in the past four years has coordinated with allies to cut off China from certain hi-tech sectors.
The stakes are high for Chinese president Xi Jinping and he knows it. Chinese state media already glorifies him by claiming he has already sought to cast China as a “champion of globalisation” in contrast to a protectionist US. They claim he has mounted diplomacy to repair damaged ties with India, Europe and Australia with an eye to driving a wedge between the US and its partners on China policy.
Those efforts are only likely to ramp up in 2025, when Beijing may also have another key opportunity to showcase itself as a global power broker and try to position itself to mediate in the Russia-Ukraine conflict as well.
Well aware of the play of power politics, Jaishankar visited Washington in December 2024 and held meetings with the Trump transition team. They indicate that ties with the US will be a priority in 2025. Trump is expected to visit India for the Quad Summit next year and Prime Minister Narendra Modi is likely to call on him in Washington before that.
The new year began with a ministerial visit from Iran. It is now followed by the US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan for a last-moment iCET (Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology) meet. Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto will be the Republic Day guest. All eyes will be on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Delhi, his first since the war began, expected to be finalised early in 2025. So, India’s calendar is already decked up.
Putin’s visit to New Delhi will be the second-most important foreign affairs development for India after Trump. Russia is happy with its current oil trade with India and may not be averse to expanding bilateral trade to more sectors, including technology.
India needs to keep Russia from ganging up with China. It also needs Moscow’s support to emerge as an important pole in a multipolar world, as a leader of the Global South, and Russia is also India’s hedge in its relations with the US.
Other issues are there that will capture New Delhi’s attention in the new year, such as pursuing the agenda and leadership of the Global South, making a fresh attempt to convene the fourth India-Africa Forum Summit, refining the Indo-Pacific strategy, and focusing on plurilateral organisations like BRICS, G7, and SCO.
According to media analyses, “New Delhi will be happy to work closely with South Africa, the present president of G20.”
The countries likely to receive special attention are Indonesia, Malaysia, Australia, France, Italy, Argentina, Mexico, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Uzbekistan, and Iran. India’s record of foreign policy management in the past ten years has been remarkably good. The past decade witnessed notable strides toward an assertive foreign policy and creative summit diplomacy and the diplomatic machine has performed well.