Regime Change and Shadow Wars: America’s Silent Strategy in West Asia

The era of revolution and the taking down of governments is back in the geopolitical sphere. In the third decade of the 21st century, the global media is giving an impression as if people from the Global South are not looking satisfied with their leaders and government. The fall of Kabul in 2020, the protest named Aragalaya (meaning Struggle) in 2022, which caused the fall of the Rajapaksa government in Sri Lanka, the repeated protests in Pakistan under Imran Khan and its supporters, the so-called students’ revolution this year in Bangladesh. 

The latest one in this spree is the fall of the Assad regime in Syria by a terrorist organization named HTS exhibiting that apart from the Western media propaganda, something is indeed not right in the Global South. 

In order to set the context, let me put one apparent argument that the world is increasingly becoming multipolar, and the countries from the south are taking positions on the global stage. The second apparent argument will be that the unquestioned hegemony of the US is in decline, and the third will be, due to the decline of the US hegemony and biased use of International institutions in order to save the interest of powerful states and its allies, causing the decline of ‘rule-based order’ and making it as an ‘interest-based order’. 

Now, the obvious question arises in the mind of the reader: what is the link between all these given arguments and the fall of the governments in the above-mentioned countries? 

The possible answer is the US involvement in destabilizing the country to strengthen its interests and the theory of deep state, regime change operations. The history of the US intervention is known to all. 

In the first decade of the 21st century, they have intervened in more than ten countries in the name of the Right to Protect and bring democratic form of government. The US has intervened in countries to save its economic and geopolitical interests. The current fall of governments has its geopolitical reasons, and the involvement of the US cannot be ruled out. 

The US brought down Sheikh Hasina with the help of a masked student revolution, and the reason was to bring someone pro-US person to lead Bangladesh. This will help them get a port in Bangladesh, which Hasina declined to give them. In Syria, the HTS suddenly, within 10 days, was able to take down the main cities. Basar al-Assad was forced to flee, and the capital fell to the rebel forces which include a terror group linked with Al-Qaeda. 

The timing of the event and the strength that the HTS has shown are extraordinary, and the help from Western countries can not be ruled out, knowing the interests of Iran and Russia in keeping the Assad Regime alive. The report on the involvement of the Ukrainian military and trainers came this week. 

The title and suffix of the HTS leader, Abbu Mohammad al-Jolani, in the US newspapers, have also been changed from terrorist to militant. In 2017, the US put a $10 million bounty on his head, and now they are thinking of changing it. All of the above-mentioned stories show the possible involvement of the US in the form of arms and strategic silence. 

Another geopolitical reason to believe the involvement of the US and Israel is that the Israel Defence Forces have broken the 50 years of ceasefire and taken control of the buffer zone near the Israel-Syria borders by attacking and destroying nearby military facilities and establishments. 

The recent development in Syria has secured the interests of the US, its all-season ally Israel and its NATO ally Turkey. 

This will help the US gain an influence in West Asia. It is also important to point out the situations of the countries in the region which have been the victims of the US intervention and what are their conditions right now. 

Libya, once the leading economy with the highest per capita income in Africa, has been struggling after the death of Mohammad Gaddafi. 

Iraq, once the country was able to sustain itself and was a leading producer of poultry and sufficiently producing crops for its own use, is now struggling to provide fresh water to its citizens. 

Sudan is already fighting a deadly civil war since last year. 

Yemen has just faced one of the greatest humanitarian crises in modern human history. 

The situation in Lebanon is dire after the Israel and Hezbollah fighting. 

Hence, this chaos in the region is going to help the US extract natural resources and put pro-US leaders as heads of state, which will help the US slow down its declining influence over the world. 

The theory of the deep state says that the whole system is run by a few powerful people. This looks very true in the case of the US. 

In 2007, in an interview, a reputed US General, Wesley Clark, told a story where he explained how they had invaded Iraq. He said they don’t know why they did so. 

Further, he mentioned about a list where it was mentioned about the seven countries where the US has to intervene and topple the government to spread chaos in the next five years. The countries were Libia, Syria, Lebanon, Sudan, Somalia and Iran. 

They have definitely failed to do it in five years, but they have successfully done it in six countries, and the only country remaining is Iran. 

In the same interview, the general said they didn’t know why they had asked to do so, but the order came from the White House. This shows that a few people only took the decision and thought it unnecessary to explain it to generals and the public. We have all read or listened to the lobby that works in the US, and it influences decision-making, foreign policies, and election campaigns. 

The Israeli lobby is considered to be the strongest. Renowned professors John J. Mearsheimer of the University of Chicago and Stephen M. Walt of Harvard’s John F. Kennedy School of Government have written a book named “The Israel Lobby and the US Foreign Policy”, where they have explained the influence of the lobby and how few people decide the policy of West Asia. They further mentioned the reason behind the strong support of Israel and the US’s direct involvement in the West Asian countries. 

In conclusion, we can say that the growing influence of the Global South is not being digested by the US, and they want to destabilize the countries to achieve geopolitical gain. The Western narrative is to show Interest-based order as rule-based one in their biased media (an example has been cited of how a terrorist became a rebel in a newspaper when he fought against the Assad Government). The time is coming when the number of wars may increase due to multiple power blocks. Despite all these interventions, the US decline is imminent, and the rule-based order is going to be the era of the past. Darker international politics await the world.