During a recent conference, RSS Chief Mohan Bhagwat advocated that people should have three children against the backdrop of the sharp decline in Total Fertility Rate (TFR). He noted that when the TFR goes below 2.1, society begins to collapse. The growing population problems in many nations are cited by some as justification for taking this advice seriously, while others point to inflation, unemployment, and other crises as reasons for the controversy surrounding this statement.
TFR statics cast dooms day for India
In his speech, Mohan Bhagwat discussed how the TFR was falling below 2.1. Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is a demographic measure that represents the average number of children a woman is expected to have during her lifetime, assuming she experiences the current age-specific fertility rates throughout her reproductive years (typically ages 15–49). It is said that a TFR of 2.1 is the “replacement level” as the 0.1 factor incorporates for unnatural deaths. When the TFR falls below 2.1, the population starts shrinking. TFR falling below 2.1 leads to a crisis of declining population in countries as is happening in India.
According to the research done by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation and the Global Burden of Disease data, the TFR in India was about 6.2 in 1950. Another source that reports the same figure is Statista at 5.9 in 1950. After gaining independence, India started to introduce population control measures. In the 1950s, India became one of the first developing countries to adopt state-sponsored family planning programs.
In 1952, the Population Policy Committee and, in 1956, the Central Family Planning Board were established with a focus on sterilization. The goal of India’s 2000 National Population Policy was to achieve a stable population by 2045, with its inception following the declaration of the country’s first National Population Policy in 1976.
These policies have been the reason behind India’s steady decline in TFR. By 2015–16, India’s TFR had dropped to 2.2, according to the National Family Health Survey (NFHS). As time went on, this also declined, and as of the NFHS 2019–21 report, India’s TFR was 2.0, which was less than the replacement level. According to studies such as those in The Lancet, one in every five Indians would be elderly by 2050, when the country’s TFR will have decreased to 1.29.
Global Population Crisis
The dilemma of shrinking population is not just an Indian problem but a concern for most countries in the world. A recent study that was published in The Lancet claims that by 2050, the fertility rate in 155 out of 204 countries will fall below 2.1, making it insufficient to support the current population. The situation is expected to worsen further, and by 2100, 97% of the countries will have this problem, and 198 out of 204 countries will have fertility rates inadequate to sustain their population.
According to the United Nations’ World Population Prospects 2024, the world population will reach its peak in the 2080s, growing from 8.2 billion in 2024 to 10.3 billion. The world population will then start to decline, reaching the end of the century with a population of 10.2 billion. The same report states that 63 countries or regions will already have had their population peak before 2024, namely China, Germany, Japan, and Russia. All these are expected to reduce their populations by 14% within the next 30 years. Currently, a fifth of the countries in the world, China, Italy, and Spain, for instance, have already entered “ultra-low” TFRs, with 1.4 or even lower fertility rates.
Countries annoucing doles to fight population collapse
The UN’s World Population Policies 2021 report finds that as of 2019, almost three-fourths of the world’s governments have fertility policies in place. Of those policies, 55 aimed at an increase in fertility and 19 intended to keep the current level of fertility. In 18 of those countries, fertility rates were less than 1.5 children per woman.
Many countries have enacted policies to promote higher birth rates. Russia, for instance, established a “Ministry of Sex” to promote its population, suggesting ideas such as dimming streetlights at night and giving women cash incentives. Hungary provides tax relief for families with four children and special loans for purchasing homes. There exists a population crisis in China, which has, hence, initiated measures like income tax cuts, extensions in maternity leave, and provisions on accommodation to promote more births.
While India may not suffer from an immediate population crisis, the country will eventually face the challenge of facing an aging population. The population issue in India is not just a declining birth rate but rather the fact that different religious communities are growing at different rates.
In 1951, the Hindu population stood at 303 million, while the Muslim population was 35 million. By 2011, the Hindu population had shot up to 966 million, while the Muslim population reached 172 million. This data shows that the share of the Hindu population reduced from 84.5 percent in 1951 to 79.8 percent in 2011; conversely, the proportion of Muslims increased from 9.9 percent to 14.2 percent.
At the same time, the percentage of the Christian population also increased: from 2.2% to 2.3%. However, both of these figures have been somewhat contentious due to questions about their authenticity, especially regarding the figures for the Christian population, as many of the converts continue to draw benefits of caste-based reservations.
Between 1950 and 2015, while the share of Hindu population dropped by 7.82%, the share of Muslim population increased by 43.15%. Excluding Parsis and Jains, the share of other religious minorities increased by 6.58%, as highlighted by the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister.
If India’s population continues to grow at this accelerated rate, it would double every few decades. Such figures would pose a serious demographic crisis in the next few decades. These figures are only of the Muslims in India and exclude the vast illegal immigrants who are also predominantly Muslim. They are not included in official censuses but have significantly changed the demographic composition of the country.
The changing demographics have already caused tensions in different parts of India, where issues like illegal immigration and demographic shifts have become key election topics. For instance, illegal immigration became a major issue in the recent Jharkhand elections. India faces not only the challenge of an aging population but also concerns regarding demographic changes. While Mohan Bhagwat’s statement has been interpreted in many ways, the population-related facts cannot be ignored. India will have to find solutions to these emerging challenges.