All eyes will be on Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi as he gears up to attend the G20 summit, to be held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on November 18-19. He is expected to conduct bilateral discussions with the heads of state of China, the United States, and Canada.
On the face of it, PM Modi’s visit to Rio has a déjà vu feeling to it. Last year India chaired the G20 and PM Modi presided over the summit in New Delhi, at the end of which, he passed on the baton to Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The two leaders will formally meet again, this time under Lula’s chairmanship.
This will probably be Biden’s last hurrah as the US President at an international forum. Biden would also be looking to assure the invited nations about a streamlined process of handing over power to President-elect Donald Trump.
PM Modi will get an opportunity to have a frank discussion with Biden to assess how the India-US bilateral relationship fared in the last four years, and its prospects in the coming Trump term. India will get an idea of Biden’s assessment of the upcoming administration and that can help New Delhi prepare for the first brush with the new president in the coming year.
Biden intends to meet with dozens of world leaders at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation conference in Peru as well as the G20 summit in Brazil. In his valedictory turn on the world stage, he’s likely to face counterparts who question the US’ commitment to alliances given Trump’s past skepticism of multilateral relationships.
“Biden will want to convey the message that America’s engagement with the world, American values, American interests are enduring,” a media report quoted Evan Medeiros of Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service as saying. He had led Asia policy in the Obama administration.
An equally important engagement would be a possible meeting between PM Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping. If that happens it would be their second meeting in a very short period of time. The two met in a bilateral format just last month on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in the Russian city of Kazan after five years, following the recent India-China pact on patrolling along the LAC.
Typically, schedules of bilateral meetings on the sidelines of summits are not announced till hours before, but the presence of the two leaders at yet another neutral venue provides another opportunity for both nations to continue to rebuild ties, a media analysis said.
In Kazan, both leaders “underscored the importance of properly handling differences and disputes and not allowing them to disturb peace and tranquility” and had also “welcomed the recent agreement for complete disengagement and resolution of issues that arose in 2020 in the India-China border areas”.
But the meeting that is really expected to generate fireworks is the possible meeting between PM Modi and Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau. There is no love lost between the two countries, and bilateral ties have in fact fallen to a new low since Trudeau launched an allegation war against India and Indian diplomats, accusing the Indian government of being involved in the murder of a Khalistani terrorist last year.
Though Trudeau admitted he has “no hard evidence” about India’s role, he went ahead with the accusations, even declaring the Indian High Commissioner as a ‘person of interest’ in the Canadian probe into the terrorist’s murder. In the process, he has destroyed the bilateral relations between the two countries. The unruly actions of Khalistani terrorists and their supporters have almost divided the Indian diaspora in Canada. The situation began getting out of hand so much so that, Trudeau had to climb down and cool fraying tempers by first admitting that Khalistani terrorists are present in Canada and then clarifying that Khalistanis do not represent all Sikhs in the country.
Trudeau stands accused of pandering to the Khalistani terror elements to boost his dropping popularity ratings as he tries to garner some polarized votes when he faces elections in 2025. Even his party members have flayed him for his overt anti-India attitude.
It is against this backdrop that Trudeau and PM Modi will be seen at the G20 venue. Whether the meeting will take place remains a speculation at this point, though some analysts feel it is Trudeau who should take the initiative to call on the Indian Prime Minister and stop the ties from deteriorating further. It would be interesting to note what Biden will advise Trudeau to do, considering the US president had backed Trudeau to the hilt on the Khalistani terrorist issue.
A statement from Trudeau’s office talked about his expectations from the G20 meeting but did not refer to India at all. “Prime Minister Trudeau will then attend the G20 Leaders’ Summit. During the Summit, he will collaborate with international partners on shared priorities, with a focus on addressing global inequality. He will stress the need for countries to work together to the benefit of our people – so economies can grow, workers can succeed, and supply chains can become stronger. He will advance efforts to promote gender equality and climate action.” the statement read.