No political geek would forget the disappointment both BJP and Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath had to face in Uttar Pradesh during the 2024 general elections. The greatest stronghold of BJP gave the biggest of nightmares to the party. UP became one of the major factors for BJP to not form government for the consecutive third time with absolute majority.
It was earlier expected from BJP to cross the mark of 62 which it achieved during the 2019 general elections. However, the reality was starkly different; the party managed to capture only 33 seats, falling dramatically short of expectations.
Now, as the political landscape shifts yet again, Uttar Pradesh is gearing up for another round of elections, this time in the form of by-elections. A total of 10 seats will go to the polls in this Bi-election. Performing in Bi-elctions won’t be an easy task for the BJP as the seats that will go in the elections are not strongholds of BJP. In Uttar Pradesh, several constituencies will soon hold by-elections, specifically for Milkipur, Karhal, Katehari, Ghaziabad, Kundarki, Khair, Meerapur, Phulpur, Manjhwa, and Sisamau. The political landscape in these areas is quite competitive, with five of these seats previously under the dominion of the Samajwadi Party, three held by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and one each by the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) and the Nishad Party.
The announcement of the election dates is imminent, and with it comes an essential question that weighs heavily on the minds of party strategists and supporters alike: will the enchanting charisma and leadership of Yogi Adityanath be sufficient to turn the tide for the BJP in the upcoming by-elections?
This election will also be important for Uttar Pradesh CM Yogi Adityanath because the General election results somewhere created an iota of doubt regarding the Chief Minister’s management and capabilities too.
Let us look at the constituencies that BJP and Yogi Aaditynath may struggle to grab-
Milkipur- This constituency was once represented by prominent Samajwadi Party leader Awadhesh Prasad, who has now transitioned to becoming a Member of Parliament (MP) for the Faizabad seat. In the 2022 Assembly elections, Prasad managed to triumph over the BJP’s then-MLA Gorakhnath Baba by a significant margin of approximately 13,000 votes. This particular seat, designated for Scheduled Castes, is heavily influenced by voters from this demographic, with the Other Backward Classes (OBCs) following closely behind in terms of electoral strength. Historically, the Samajwadi Party has received substantial support from the Pasi community, and the backing of Yadav and Muslim voters has further fortified the party’s position in this constituency.
Karhal- It is noteworthy that the Samajwadi Party has maintained an unbroken hold over this seat since 1993. Akhilesh Yadav, the party leader, won this seat in the 2022 Assembly elections but has since secured a Lok Sabha seat from Kannauj, thereby vacating the Karhal seat. With a voter base comprising 375,000 individuals, this constituency features 130,000 Yadav voters, followed by approximately 60,000 Scheduled Caste voters. Additionally, there are around 50,000 Shakya voters, 30,000 Kshatriya voters, 20,000 Brahmin voters, 20,000 Muslim voters, and 15,000 Baniya voters. The Samajwadi Party has selected Tej Pratap Yadav, a former MP from Mainpuri and Akhilesh Yadav’s cousin, as its candidate for this upcoming election.
Kundarki- A constituency that became vacant when the Samajwadi Party’s MLA Jiyaur Rahman was elected as an MP from the Sambhal Lok Sabha constituency. Reports indicate an ongoing tussle between the Samajwadi Party and Congress regarding candidate selection for this seat, where over 50% of the voters belong to the Muslim community, which plays a critical role in determining electoral outcomes. Additionally, the constituency is home to approximately 20% Dalit and about 15% OBC voters.
Katehari- In the by-election for the Katehari Assembly seat, the Samajwadi Party has chosen Shobhawati Verma, the spouse of MP Lalji Verma, as their candidate. This seat became vacant following Lalji Verma’s resignation. Meanwhile, the BJP has not yet disclosed its candidate, although various names, including former minister Dharmraj Nishad, Awadhesh Dwivedi, and Sudhir Singh, are circulating in political discussions.
Meerapur- RLD MLA Chandan Chauhan has ascended to the Lok Sabha after winning the elections from Bijnor, resulting in a vacancy for this seat. Of the total 330,000 voters, approximately 40% are Muslims, while around 50,000 belong to the Scheduled Caste category. Thus far, no party has declared its candidate for this by-election, but it is speculated that the BJP may concede this seat to the RLD.
Manjhwa- Dr. Vinod Kumar Bind, the former MLA from the Manjhwa constituency representing the Nishad Party, has ascended to Parliament as an MP from the Bhadohi Lok Sabha constituency on a BJP ticket, prompting an upcoming by-election in Manjhwa. The constituency’s electoral dynamics are shaped by its diverse voter base, comprising approximately 60,000 Dalits, 60,000 Brahmins, 60,000 Binds, and a significant number of OBC voters, making caste equations critical to the election. The Nishad Party aims to field a candidate to leverage its support base, but reports suggest that the BJP has decided against granting any seats to the party in this election, indicating a strategy to consolidate power and prevent vote fragmentation. The by-election will be closely watched, as its outcome could influence future electoral dynamics in Uttar Pradesh and reflect broader political strategies.
Sisamau – The constituency was vacated following the disqualification of former Samajwadi Party MLA Irfan Solanki due to criminal charges. The Samajwadi Party has nominated his wife, Naseem Solanki, to contest for this seat. Among the 271,000 total voters, the electorate consists of 111,000 Muslims, 70,000 Brahmins, 60,000 Dalits, and 26,000 Kayasth voters, all of whom are crucial to the electoral process. To achieve success in this constituency, political parties must concentrate on appealing to Brahmin and Dalit voters while also considering the potential impact of Muslim voter polarization.