The BJP has often tasted success, but today’s Haryana victory is different. It will breathe new life into the party, especially after the Lok Sabha elections, when the BJP was said to have lost its momentum. The unexpected victory did not just come at the borderline but with a clear majority, a success that will undoubtedly echo in the upcoming Maharashtra and Jharkhand elections.
But what did the BJP do that turned the tide in its favor? It was the old formula that worked. It is clear that the Congress was contesting on various agendas ranging from caste, farmers, and the wrestlers’ protests, but little did they know that the most favorable thing for them was anti-incumbency.
However, the BJP understood this well. In fact, the general elections made it clear to the BJP that, regardless of the narratives being set across India, it was anti-incumbency that resulted in the party’s reduced seat count. However, it was PM Modi’s popularity that kept the BJP at 240 seats and not fewer.
The opposition, unaware of this, was overconfident about their victory, but the BJP played subtly. The party knew that after 2014, it failed to retain its momentum in Haryana during the 2019 elections, when it had to align with JJP, and this could worsen in 2024. So, just seven months before the assembly elections, the BJP changed the CM. Yes, in place of Manohar Lal Khattar, Nayab Singh Saini was given the opportunity and a free hand.
He worked tirelessly, exposing the corrupt practices of the Hooda regime, especially in filling job vacancies. He highlighted the ‘Parchi or Kharchi’ system of the Bhupinder Hooda government (meaning influence or money was needed to get a job), which resonated strongly with the Haryana youth. Simultaneously, in every Cabinet meeting, the Central government made provisions for farmers.
Through these efforts, the BJP overcame the anti-incumbency wave, while the Congress, intoxicated with overconfidence, failed to see what was coming.
Now the question arises, is it so easy to pull off victory this way? No, it’s not, but it is possible if the formula is time-tested, and the BJP has tested it in not just one or two but three states before, with Haryana being the fourth such example.
Do you remember how the BJP was losing control over Gujarat after PM Modi became Prime Minister? In just seven years after he left the state, the BJP had to change three CMs. In every subsequent election, the BJP managed to win, but the victory lacked confidence. Then the BJP came up with this formula.
In September 2021, the BJP made Bhupendra Patel the CM, and by December, the BJP retained the state with Patel as the CM face, overcoming the anti-incumbency factor.
Similarly, in Uttarakhand, the state has seen multiple CMs in its short history. Every election, the BJP and Congress were alternately elected by the public, and the CM face was changed. The BJP wanted to break this streak and retain power, but it had to deal with anti-incumbency. In July 2021, Pushkar Singh Dhami was made CM in place of Trivendra Singh Rawat, and just months later, Dhami became the people’s CM and retained the office in February 2022.
The northeastern state of Tripura is another example. To retain the state, the BJP replaced Biplab Deb with Manik Saha as CM in May 2022 and won the state nine months later in February 2023.
Also, make no mistake—it’s not necessary that in the future the BJP will use this as a universal policy. It all depends on the intensity of anti-incumbency in the state. For example, anti-incumbency was present in Madhya Pradesh as well, but the BJP didn’t change the CM. Instead, it hinted to the voters that the CM would be changed, and as people wanted change but not the Congress, that formula worked too.
We will explain this BJP formula further when, at another time and in another state, the BJP will use it again to shock the nation, just like today.