The relationship between Pakistan and the Taliban, once close allies, has steadily deteriorated in recent years.
Historically, Pakistan had a significant role in the Taliban’s rise to power in the 1990s, supporting them as a strategic asset to counter Indian influence in Afghanistan. However, since the Taliban took control of Afghanistan in 2021, the dynamics between the two have shifted dramatically.
One of the key sources of tension is the Durand Line – the disputed border between Afghanistan and Pakistan. The Afghan Taliban do not recognize the border and have resisted Pakistan’s attempts to fence it. Armed clashes between the Taliban and Pakistani forces along this border have become increasingly frequent, further straining their relationship. Additionally, Pakistan has been struggling with the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a militant group inspired by the Afghan Taliban, which has intensified attacks on Pakistani soil.
The Afghan Taliban’s reluctance to act against the TTP, which operates freely along the border, has aggravated Pakistan’s internal security issues. Pakistan had hoped that the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan would help curb TTP’s activities, but instead, the opposite has happened. The TTP has launched a growing insurgency in Pakistan’s tribal regions, resulting in numerous terrorist attacks, extortion rackets, and kidnappings. Pakistan now faces a serious internal security threat, with its border regions seeing a significant increase in militancy.
If tensions escalate into full-scale conflict, the impact on the region, including India, could be profound. A direct confrontation between the Taliban and Pakistan could destabilize the region further, creating a power vacuum that extremist groups could exploit. For India, this conflict would shift the focus of Pakistan’s military and intelligence apparatus away from its eastern border, potentially providing India with some strategic respite. However, any instability in Pakistan would pose risks for India, particularly in terms of cross-border terrorism and refugee flows. Additionally, any conflict could disrupt efforts to stabilize Afghanistan, impacting India’s economic and diplomatic investments in the region.
Thus, while the current rift between the Taliban and Pakistan presents challenges for Islamabad, it also opens up both risks and opportunities for India in the broader South Asian geopolitical landscape.