Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s increasing appeal across India has now extended to West Bengal, creating a challenging scenario for Mamata Banerjee and her Trinamool Congress (TMC). A recent survey commissioned by the BJP indicates that a significant portion of Bengal’s electorate, around 55%, supports Modi for a third term as Prime Minister. The findings hint at a potential advantage for the BJP in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, causing concern within the TMC ranks.
Survey Details
Conducted in the latter half of 2023, the survey covered 2,000-3,000 respondents from each of Bengal’s 42 Lok Sabha constituencies. Respondents were asked about their satisfaction with Modi’s performance and their preference for the next Prime Minister. Surprisingly, Modi received overwhelming support, prompting the BJP to strategize around this unexpected surge in popularity.
Key Survey Insights
- Modi’s Popularity: Approximately 55% of respondents favor Modi for another term as Prime Minister.
- Yogi Adityanath’s Appeal: About 5% of respondents expressed support for Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath as the next Prime Minister.
- Mamata Banerjee’s Prospects: While 20-25% considered Mamata as a potential Prime Minister, the survey revealed a challenge for her against Modi’s growing popularity.
- Rahul Gandhi’s Support: Around 10-15% of respondents favored Congress leader Rahul Gandhi for the top leadership role.
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TMC’s Concerns
While the TMC is reluctant to officially comment on the survey, a senior party leader acknowledged the report as a matter of concern. Mamata Banerjee, a key opposition figure, is facing the task of preventing a BJP government at the center as the survey indicates a shifting political landscape in West Bengal.
Electoral Dynamics
Despite the TMC’s strong presence in the West Bengal legislative assembly and dominance in the rural vote, the survey raises questions about the party’s performance in national elections. With only five more seats than the BJP in the current Lok Sabha, the TMC is challenged by the changing political preferences of Bengal’s electorate.
MP Approval Ratings
Simultaneous surveys on the ‘approval rating’ for Lok Sabha MPs revealed interesting insights. Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury, Congress MP from Baharampur, received the highest approval rating at 87%, followed by Abhishek Banerjee of TMC with 80%. BJP’s sitting parliamentarians also faced varying approval ratings.
Strategic Responses
In response to the survey, recommendations for a list of winnable Lok Sabha candidates have been made to Mamata Banerjee. Sources indicate that multiple changes in nominations are being considered to address the evolving political dynamics.
Conclusion
As Modi’s popularity grows in West Bengal, the survey results indicate a potential shift in the state’s political landscape. With Mamata Banerjee aiming to retain control and the BJP eyeing an opportunity, the upcoming Lok Sabha elections in West Bengal promise to be closely contested and politically charged.