West Bengal’s Chief Minister, Mamata Banerjee, leader of the Trinamool Congress, is keen on forming an alliance with the Congress Party. This move is less about confronting the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on a national stage and more about protecting her own political ground in West Bengal from the BJP’s influence.
Mamata Banerjee is seeking the support of the Congress party in West Bengal. Although Congress is not a major force in the state’s politics, recent figures and developments indicate why their alliance is important to her.
Mamata Banerjee is aiming for an alliance because she recognizes that the BJP, being the primary opposition in West Bengal, has a significant chance of winning in the state. This situation may seem complex, so let’s break it down to understand it better.
In the 2021 Assembly elections in West Bengal, the vote shares and counts stood as follows: Trinamool Congress (TMC) led with 28,650,917 votes, making up 47.93% of the total. The BJP followed with 22,798,411 votes, holding a 38.1% share. The CPM, despite not winning any seats, received 2,820,908 votes, which was 4.72% of the vote share. The Congress party secured 1,757,148 votes, amounting to a 2.94% share.
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The emergence of the Indian Secular Front in West Bengal, led by Abbas Siddiqui, a notable cleric from the Furfura Sharif shrine in Hooghly district, has become a point of concern for Mamata Banerjee, according to Trinamool Congress insiders. The party is gaining attention. Abbas Siddiqui’s brother, Nawshad Siddiqui, won a legislative seat from the predominantly Muslim Bhangar constituency. Nawshad’s 42-day imprisonment following a peaceful protest has reportedly led to disappointment among many Muslim voters.
In West Bengal, the political alliances and standings are as follows:
- Trinamool Congress (TMC) is competing independently.
- Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is also contesting on its own.
- The Congress Party and Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPM) have formed a coalition.
- The Indian Secular Front is participating in the elections alone.
In the previous Assembly elections, Trinamool Congress achieved approximately 48% of the vote, while BJP was second with 38.13%, and the Left and Congress together accounted for about 7.5%. If the Congress, Left Front, and Indian Secular Front (ISF) unite against Trinamool, it could split Trinamool’s Muslim voter base. This division could potentially benefit the BJP.
At the Opposition I.N.D.I.A. bloc meeting in New Delhi, Mamata Banerjee unexpectedly proposed that the alliance should have a prominent figure, either as a convener or as a prime ministerial candidate, and she named Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge. This move is seen as a strategic effort to align closely with the Congress Party. The Trinamool Congress has been assertive about finalizing a seat-sharing arrangement within the I.N.D.I.A. bloc, particularly for West Bengal, by the end of the year.
Mamata is aware that the state unit of the Congress is reluctant to collaborate with the Trinamool, considering the latter’s history of weakening Congress through defections. Hence, she is keen to gain favor with Kharge, recognizing the influence of the Congress high command. Mamata’s act of making unsolicited recommendations about another party’s leadership at the I.N.D.I.A. bloc meeting underlines her determination to foster a relationship with the Congress.
The Congress party is currently allied with the Left. However, there’s significant animosity between the Left and the Trinamool Congress (TMC). Should Congress choose to align with TMC, it’s likely that the Left would break away from this alliance. In such a scenario, the Left might consider bringing the Indian Secular Front (ISF) into its fold as a new ally.
In any election scenario in West Bengal, be it BJP vs TMC vs Congress-Left vs ISF, or BJP vs TMC-Congress vs Left-ISF alliance, or even BJP vs TMC vs Congress-Left-ISF, it seems likely that the BJP could emerge victorious. This is primarily due to the potential split in the Muslim vote, which traditionally might have supported parties other than the BJP. This division of votes among multiple parties or alliances could work in the BJP’s favor.
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