In a rather ludicrous display of cynicism, the ever-so-critical Shashi Tharoor decided once again to take the role of a grim seer, conveniently overlooking tangible data and projections that hint at a prosperous future for India. As if wearing blinkers that only filter in doom and gloom, Tharoor couldn’t restrain himself from scoffing at the Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s hopeful outlook for the nation becoming a superpower, an outlook grounded in feasible objectives and a dedicated roadmap for national growth.
On Sunday, Tharoor displayed an almost tragic eagerness to disparage any positive narrative regarding India’s future as a superpower, shamelessly branding it as a “fantasy”. In his painfully myopic view, acknowledging the current challenges seems to equate abandoning the promise and potential of a brighter future, a stance that reeks of nothing but sheer negativity and a deliberate dismissal of the nation’s evident strides in various sectors.
His propensity to ignore the considerable progress many are tirelessly working towards, just to sustain his gloomy narrative, only serves to paint him as an armchair pessimist, overly invested in a narrative of despair. This blatant refusal to even entertain a vision of an India where poverty is alleviated and social sectors thrive, sadly showcases Tharoor as nothing more than a naysayer, blissfully ensconced in his fortress of negativity, a fortress seemingly impervious to facts and rational optimism.
Here’s what he said along with very-long-data-based-rebuttals:
“It is too early to speak about (being) superpower because too many of our people are still super poor. We still have to first address the real problems of the poor, the marginalised, the deprived.”
The Real Problems of The Poor, The Marginalised, The Deprived
While “the real problems of the poor” is a non-quantifiable term, let me simplify it by saying that the real problem of the poor is POVERTY. Thus, the pressing question is, how has India performed in alleviating poverty, making the impoverished population less so, or even entirely elevating them out of poverty? To understand this, we will resort to measurable and quantifiable metrics.
1. Poverty Reduction
As per the UNDP, India witnessed a monumental shift with 415 million individuals escaping the clutches of poverty within a 15-year span from 2005/2006 to 2019/2021. The data indicates a remarkable decrease in the incidence of poverty, which declined from 55.1% to 16.4%.
Furthermore, the absolute figures of individuals experiencing multidimensional poverty have demonstrated a remarkable decline. In 2005/2006, around 645 million people were mired in multidimensional poverty, a number that decreased significantly to about 370 million in 2015/2016, and further to 230 million in 2019/2021. Notably, this reduction was most prominent in the poorest states and among groups including children and individuals from disadvantaged religion/caste groups, who witnessed the fastest absolute progress.
A closer look at various sectors also reveals encouraging trends in the reduction of deprivation across diverse indicators. Notably, the fraction of multidimensionally poor individuals experiencing nutrition deprivation dipped from 44.3% in 2005/2006 to 11.8% in 2019/2021. Similar positive developments were observed in child mortality rates, which decreased from 4.5% to 1.5%. Additionally, developments in infrastructure have facilitated improved access to basic amenities like drinking water and electricity, with the percentage of people facing deprivation in these sectors witnessing a substantial decrease over the examined period.
2. GDP Per Capita
India’s GDP/Capita data delineates the trajectory of India’s GDP per capita from 2014 to the expected figures for 2023, showcasing an overall upward trend characterized by growth and resilience. In 2014, the GDP per capita stood at 1559.86 USD, marking a modest increase to 1590.17 USD in 2015. A noticeable surge was observed in 2016 with a jump to 1714.27 USD, which further escalated significantly to 1957.96 USD by the end of 2017. In 2018, the growth pace slightly mellowed, reaching 1974.37 USD, followed by a rise to 2050.16 USD in 2019.
However, 2020 saw a dip, due to the global economic downturn triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic, with the GDP per capita retracting to 1913.21 USD. This setback was transient, as 2021 witnessed a robust recovery, catapulting the figure to 2238.12 USD. The upward trajectory sustained momentum into 2022, with the GDP per capita reaching 2388.62 USD. The projections for 2023 are even more promising, indicating a significant surge to an expected value of 3750 USD.
In essence, the average Indian’s earnings have potentially surged by 140.4% compared to 2014, marking a period of economic resurgence following the tenure of the UPA government.
3. But what about Hunger Index?
The 2022 Global Hunger Index (GHI) presented a paradox in its evaluation of India’s efforts to combat hunger, placing the nation at a dismal rank of 107 out of 121 countries, with a score of 29.1 in the “serious” category. This position appeared at odds with India’s recent role as a significant aid provider during the Ukraine-Russia crisis, where it supplied a substantial portion of the world with wheat. Moreover, the ranking raised eyebrows as India, a beacon of stability and democracy in its region, was positioned below nations grappling with internal unrest and civil wars, including neighboring countries such as Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.
Examining the GHI’s two-decade history and its operational background unveils potential biases influencing its evaluations. The Index, backed by Irish NGO Concern Worldwide and German entity Welthungerhilfe, relies heavily on funding from governmental agencies including the European Union and the United Nations, alongside private donors. This substantial influx of governmental aid raises legitimate concerns about the impartiality of the GHI’s methodologies and findings. The potential for these significant funding sources to sway the analytical approaches and conclusions of the index cannot be disregarded, indicating a necessity for a critical appraisal of the report’s authenticity and the potential two-facedness in its representation of India’s hunger crisis status.
On to the next quote:
“The country is going through a tough time now in terms of high inflation, low employment, in fact unemployment is at record levels, and on top of that if people don't have jobs how can they afford higher prices for all their essential commodities. In these circumstances to paint fantasies of a distant future that is 25 years from now is a bit unfortunate”
High Inflation? Sure, but where?
The inflation data spanning from 2004 to 2022 indicates a series of fluctuations, however, focusing on the period from 2014 onwards, we notice a trend that seems largely positive, especially when considered in the light of events such as the Covid-19 pandemic and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict that began in February 2022.
Beginning in 2014, there was a substantial dip in the inflation rate, which settled to 6.6657% from a concerning 10.0179% in 2013, showcasing the successful implementation of policies aimed at curbing inflation and stabilizing the economy. This downward trend continued with the inflation rate reducing to 4.907% in 2015 and maintaining at a relatively low level in the subsequent years, until 2019.
When the Covid-19 pandemic hit in 2020, economies around the globe were significantly disrupted. Despite this, India managed to keep its inflation rate at 6.6234% in 2020, which although higher than the previous year, was a demonstration of economic resilience during a period of global upheaval. Moreover, in 2021, we observe a dip to 5.1314%, which can be viewed as a commendable recovery phase post the pandemic shock.
The year 2022 saw a slight rise in the inflation rate to 6.699%, as a result of economic repercussions from the Russia-Ukraine war, which began in February 2022. This conflict has stirred global economic dynamics, affecting supply chains and commodity prices.
Numbers don’t lie and the data reflects a favorable picture of India’s economy in the last 7-8 years, characterized by relatively stable inflation rates, indicating prudent fiscal and monetary policy decisions.
Unemployment is at record levels. Yes, record low.
The unfolding economic narrative in India, as depicted by the unemployment rate data from 2004 to 2022 and the new formal job creations in H1 FY23, is one of resilience and resurgence. In the last decade, the country has seen a consistent decline in unemployment rates, plummeting from 8.531% in 2004 to a promising 6.51% in 2019. Despite the Covid-19 pandemic causing a significant spike, reaching 10.195% in 2020, the Indian job market has demonstrated remarkable recovery, reducing the unemployment rate to 7.33% by the end of 2022.
This recovery is substantially buoyed by the impressive job creation in the first half of the fiscal year 2023, with 87.1 lakh new formal jobs being created, a 35% increase compared to the previous year. Moreover, the second quarter of FY23 saw a robust growth in job creation, particularly in September, which added 16.82 lakh new jobs. The government’s targeted initiatives in the MSME sector, aiming to add 50 million more jobs by 2025, further bolster this promising trend.
And now let’s come to the ‘S’ word.
What makes a Superpower?
A superpower in the geopolitical context signifies a state that wields substantial control or influence over global affairs, effectively shaping the course of world events through several domains. Firstly, a superpower is typified by economic dominance, characterized by a high GDP, substantial industrial capabilities, and robust infrastructure. Secondly, it maintains a formidable military force equipped with advanced technology capable of global power projection. Thirdly, it leads in technological advancement, nurturing innovation that propels economic growth and supports military objectives.
Furthermore, a superpower exercises significant political influence on the world stage, actively shaping policies and regulations through its extensive diplomatic network and alliances.
Let us analyze India in terms of all the aforementioned factors:
1. Economy:
Let’s take a moment to explore the current standing of the Indian economy and make an educated guess about where it might find itself by 2047, to see why the skepticism voiced by Tharoor seems largely baseless.
Peeking into the future of the economy, we can estimate the growth trajectory using a simple mathematical formula that calculates the future value based on a steady growth rate.
Starting with the current GDP of 3.7 trillion USD in 2023, we can use the formula A = P(1+r)^t to project the GDP for future years:
From 2023 to 2033 (10 years), anticipating an 8.5% growth rate, the projection comes out to about 8.2103 trillion USD.
Moving on to 2033 to 2044 (11 years), assuming an 8% growth rate, we find a significant rise to approximately 18.2312 trillion USD.
Lastly, from 2044 to 2047 (3 years) with a 7.5% growth rate, the economy is expected to soar to a whopping 22.5546 trillion USD.
Putting it into perspective, even though India may not overtake the economic giants of the USA and China by 2047, it is slated to secure a commanding position as the third largest economy globally, marking its presence as an undisputed economic Superpower.
2. Defence:
According to the most authoritative internet source, Global Firepower, which specializes in evaluating the military capabilities of nations, India already stands as a Superpower in the global military landscape. As per the 2023 annual GFP assessment, among the 145 nations scrutinized, India clinches the 4th position, surpassed only by the Military superpower states of US, China, and Russia. India has achieved a notable PwrIndx rating of 0.1025, with a lower score indicating superior military strength (a score of 0.0000 is considered ‘perfect’). This data reviewed last on 06/08/2023, underscores India’s rising prominence in the global defense sector. Bolstered by its ongoing transformation into a hub for defense manufacturing, and with ambitions to shift from a net importer to a net exporter within the next two decades, India aspires to ascend possibly to the first or second rank in the GFP index by 2047, marking its position as a paramount defence superpower.
3. Technology
Over the past decade, India has firmly established itself as a dominant player in the technological arena, showcasing significant advancements across various domains. In the IT sector, the nation’s prowess has been robustly exhibited with a surge in service exports, which reached an impressive value of approximately 150 billion USD in 2020. Giants like Infosys and TCS have further solidified their global footprint, fostering innovation and integrating cutting-edge technologies in numerous projects worldwide.
In the defence sector, India has witnessed a slew of advancements including the successful induction of Rafale fighter jets and the development of the BrahMos missile system, a collaboration between India and Russia that stands as a testament to India’s burgeoning defence technological prowess. Furthermore, the successful test of the Anti-Satellite (ASAT) weapon in 2019 has placed India among an elite group of nations possessing this capability.
The space sector has been a beacon of India’s technological progress, marked by several groundbreaking missions. The Chandrayaan-3 mission, a historic endeavour, saw India successfully landing on the Moon’s south pole, becoming the first country to achieve this feat. Alongside, the Aditya L1 mission, India’s inaugural venture to study the sun, successfully conducted its second Earth-bound manoeuvre, paving the way for deeper space explorations and studies. These missions underscore India’s ambition and capability to pioneer space exploration in the new era.
In tandem, the field of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in India is witnessing a significant upswing with the advent of start-ups valued at over one billion USD, such as Zebra Medical Vision and Suki.AI. These entities are harbingers of India’s potential in leveraging AI technology to craft transformative solutions that have a broad societal and economic impact. This synergy of technological advancements indicates India’s steadfast journey towards emerging as a global technological powerhouse, with signs of further growth and ascendancy in the coming years.
By the year 2047, it is envisaged that India will stand as a colossal hub of technological innovation and expertise, rivaling the prowess of the current global leaders. Riding on the wave of digitization, it is plausible that the IT sector will burgeon further, potentially being the crucible for next-generation computing technologies, including quantum computing and advanced artificial intelligence systems. In defence, we can anticipate an array of indigenous, state-of-the-art weaponry and defence systems that not only ensure national security but also position India as a significant exporter of defence technology. Moreover, the space sector is expected to witness groundbreaking milestones with missions that could possibly encompass manned lunar landings or even Mars colonies, echoing India’s commitment to pushing the boundaries of human knowledge and exploration. Furthermore, developments in AI are predicted to permeate every facet of society, fostering an ecosystem where smart cities, autonomous vehicles, and AI-driven healthcare systems are the norms rather than the exceptions.
Overall, by 2047, India aims to embody a synergistic blend of tradition and futuristic innovation, standing as a beacon of technological advancement and a testament to human ingenuity and resilience. In Short, a Tech Superpower.
4. Significant political influence
By 2047, it is anticipated that India will have entrenched itself as a global superpower, exercising significant political influence on the world stage. Bolstered by a projected GDP that catapults it to the position of the third largest economy globally, a technologically advanced military infrastructure, and pioneering strides in various technological sectors, India’s role in international diplomacy and global governance is set to undergo a monumental shift.
As an active and important member of the QUAD, India is expected to play a pivotal role in fostering stability and economic cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region, further facilitating a balanced power dynamic in the area. Its foundational role in BRICS, which recently expanded to include Argentina, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Ethiopia, and Iran, manifests India’s commitment to fostering south-south cooperation and advocating for the economic interests of emerging economies. Moreover, being a founding member of BIMSTEC, G-15, and G-20, India has continually been at the forefront of regional cooperation and global economic discussions, bringing to the table a unique perspective that harmonizes traditional wisdom with contemporary insights.
In the geopolitical arena, India’s position is increasingly viewed as pivotal, particularly with regard to its potential role in resolving the protracted Russia-Ukraine impasse, testifying to its emerging status as a diplomatic linchpin capable of mediating in complex international disputes. Furthermore, its next-in-line status for a permanent seat at the UNSC and active membership in the SCO underscore India’s rising stature and influence in global governance structures.
Prime Minister Modi himself, decorated with numerous international accolades including the Order of Zayed, Legion of Merit, and the Champions of the Earth Award by the United Nations, embodies India’s ascendant trajectory on the global stage. His leadership has evidently facilitated India’s metamorphosis into a nation that not only commands respect but is also entrusted with the responsibility of spearheading initiatives aimed at fostering global peace, stability, and prosperity. Thus, by 2047, India is poised to be a nexus of political influence, guiding global narratives and actions with wisdom, and strategic insight. A superpower wielding significant political influence.
To Shashi Tharoor with Love
In light of the sound projections rooted in mathematical analysis, Tharoor’s disparaging remarks about India becoming a superpower by 2047, come off nothing more than ill-founded doomsday prophecies, seemingly detached from the encouraging trajectory data clearly lays out. It seems his cynicism merely serves to paint gloomy vistas, conspicuously lacking any substantiated backing, standing stark against the robust growth narrative the data paints for India. Contrary to his bleak portrayal, India stands on the cusp of monumental economic growth, heralding a future where it isn’t just a participant, but a leading figure, a true superpower on the global economic stage, showcasing a narrative of prosperity and tremendous potential.
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