The early leads for the Karnataka Vidhansabha elections have begun to arrive. Conducted in a single phase on 10 May, parties like Congress, Janata Dal [Secular] and BJP gave it their all to show who’s the boss. However, irrespective of the edge, one thing is clear about the results: Nothing is conventional, expect the unexpected!
Lets analyse the preliminary trends of the Karnataka elections.
As of now, more than half of the total votes have been counted. Now no huge upsets can occur, though results can change on 5 to 10 seats at the maximum.
“Moral victory for Congress”
As of now, Congress has certainly edged past BJP, but not by a mammoth margin. After years, Congress might have a reason to smile, because as per the early trends projected by Election Commission, the party is leading on more than 110 seats. One the other hand, BJP is leading on some 73 seats, which is certainly not a good sign for now. Looks like Congress did succeed with its regionalism card, albeit partially.
However, the results are certainly not something Congress can afford to grin on. They might win the elections, because for now, they seem to be crossing the much-needed mark of 113 seats. However, as predicted by some self-proclaimed poll experts, they’re certainly not getting an absolute majority of 130 seats or more.
The best Congress can get is 125, and if things turn south, they might be restricted to 110 seats, even less. Long story short, Congress will have to satisfy itself with a “moral victory”, though the real tussle would start a few days later, for the CM chair. Since DK Shivakumar has won his constituency, the situation, despite being advantageous for Congress, would be far from a cakewalk.
“JDS may be kingmaker, but”
On the other hand, things haven’t changed much for Janata Dal [Secular]. Like we predicted, the party won’t score beyond the mark of 25 to 30 seats, and the early trends indicate the same. Moreover, it is here that the troubles are bigger for JDS supremo HD Kumaraswamy. He is not having a comfortable lead in his own constituency, while his own son Nikhil is struggling to stay aloft.
Moreover, BJP is springing up surprises in regions like Central Karnataka, a long-held bastion for Congress, as well as JD [S]. Besides, if the results change somewhat drastically, JDS can best afford to be the kingmaker, but not the absolute power in the state of Karnataka. Apart from that, BJP is still ahead on more than 70 seats, and as such, if something happens on the lines of Bihar, none should be surprised, though it shall be far from easy.
On a serious note, BJP needs some serious introspection, though this setback has come at an opportune moment. However, it would still take time until evening for a clearer outcome, as confirmed by the election officials themselves.
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