2022 was the official Gregorian year in which the world realised how strong India’s clout is. The US, the EU, China, Pakistan, Turkey, WTO, G7 and many more. Not a single geopolitical entity could save itself from the brutal honesty of India’s foreign policy. Trust me, the showdown has only begun. 2023 is going to witness a more remarkable chapter.
Hints from remarks by Jaishankar and Rajnath
During the last two days of the outgoing year, India has announced its intention for 2023. On 30th December, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh reiterated that national security will not be a casualty of aspirations to have better relations with neighbours. More than 4000 km away, EAM Jaishankar also aired the same opinion in Cyprus. His statement can be understood as a rational explanation of the Defence Minister’s viewpoint.
Both these ministers have seen how not prioritising national security led India to hostage situations like Kandhar and 26/11. Jaishankar’s remark about not allowing terrorism to force India on the negotiating table was an oblique reference to those kinds of situations. During those days, India used to have a dovish foreign policy. It is hard to judge whether it was the need of the hour or the set up was timid as hell.
India’s Presidency of G20 and SCO
However, we can rest assured that both factors are absent from our ministries, and things will turn for the better next year. In 2023, India is President of arguably two biggest Power blocs after the UN. One is the G20, which is a “big boys club” and nothing else. It is a massive opportunity for India to amplify its viewpoints. Not surprisingly, it is doing so in style. Few meetings of G20 will be held in Kashmir and Ladakh, places about which China and Pakistan have been crying for the time immemorial. China is already fuming over it.
Read more: India is showing the world how to be a Boss at the UNSC
India has already indicated its “I don’t care” attitude towards China’s objections. Instead, India is focussing more on using its geopolitical leverage to bring peace in the world. India is the only country who both Zelenskyy and Putin trust. While Ukraine has high chances of being involved in G20 proceedings, for Russia, India’s SCO Presidency will come handy. It was during the SCO summit that PM Modi had publicly asked President Putin about prospects of peace. SCO is not less than G20 of Eurasia and being the President of both, India can get both Ukraine and Russia on board.
FTAs and bilateral trade in Rupee
India’s dominance is also going to be one of the key reasons why India’s fintech sector will gain more market space. Countries are lined up for FTAs with India. Currently, India is in various stages of FTA negotiations with the Gulf Cooperation Council, European Union, United Kingdom. These geographical blocs want to be in the same league as Australia, UAE.
Read more: PM Modi is bringing Putin and Zelenskyy on the ‘peace table’
Penetration of India’s products in these geographies will only increase the trustworthiness of made-in-India products. This kind of trustworthiness is what pushes products like UPI, RuPay in foreign territories. They are about to reach saturation level in India in next few years and will need an alternate market. Countries on the other side of FTA deals are perfect launchpads.
It would be better if they are used mainly for Rupees. Currently, lots of these countries are going to trade India in American Dollars. India does not wish to continue it for a long time. That is why the RBI had already set up a mechanism for bilateral transactions in local currencies. While Russia, Sri Lanka and Mauritius are already on board, talks are going on with nearly 40 more countries.
Leader of global south
This is going to be another economic jolt to the Chinese. Internationalisation of Renminbi has failed to gain momentum and Indian Rupee is rising to fill the vacant space. It is like salt on the wound of their thrashing on borders.
Even on borders, India is going more berserk, as is evident from deployment of Rafale and Sukhoi near LAC. Regarding Chinese borders, India no longer relies on support from the USA. Americans have shown their true colours by providing millions of Dollars. India has not taken it lightly either. The only reason why India would need the US is burgeoning trade. With FTA deals lined up, even that compulsion is getting eliminated on its own.
India has literally no reason to go soft on any traditional bully. With China and the US on the backfoot, India could well emerge as the leader of the global South in 2023.
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